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Not that MLB Tonight has any markets cornered on baseball wisdom ... :- ) but it IS a nice lens into the way East Coast media is looking at things. And that media is hooked into baseball's GM network. So it's worth a look.
The host asked Joel Sherman a question, and it was the very question that you and I would ask. "With the recent disappointments in Seattle, Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, etc., are their prospects devalued?"
Sherman said, no way. "I just talked to an executive about that and he said 'The Mariners are DEEP. They have a lot of kids, and you're going to like SOMEBODY they have.' " Jon Paul Morosi, in the background, immediately nodded his head like a bobblehead - that's what he hears, too. Tom Verducci came on and said the same thing.
We've all chipped our teeth about Montero, Ackley, etc. but GM's aren't fans. They look at Zduriencik's wave of youth objectively. One GM is excited about Ackley's second half of 2013, another GM thinks Justin Smoak could benefit from coaching, a third GM would give you the moon for Seager, a fourth is hot for Brad Miller. Every GM makes his own projections, and they're going to land somewhere...
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Dustin Ackley hit .304/.374/.425 in the second half last year.
You and I have a visceral reaction to him; we've seen hundreds and hundreds of overmatched at-bats. We've watched those pitchers pour 91-MPH first-pitch fastballs right down the middle, twice in a row, for 0-2 counts. We've seen Ackley try to yank outside pitches down the 1B line. We've watched a Deer In The Headlights ... sent out there, day, after day, after day.
We've got a conditioned response.
But what does a GM from out of town see? He sees a #2 overall pick, a kid who got to the bigs quickly, who struggled for 1,200 at-bats ... and starting then, showed you half-a-season's worth of Dustin Pedroia performance. Ackley's a 2B and a CF.
Maybe the Mariners baked the cake, and you get to eat it...
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From what I read, Brad Miller is almost universally regarded as a 3-4 WAR club controls player going forward.
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Mike Zunino, we presume the M's aren't interested in trading ... Kyle Seager, you've got DJ Peterson behind him, and Seager is a 3.5 WAR player with four (4) years of club control left. Logically, he's a more tantalizing trade target than David Price his ownself.
Michael Saunders, as a second player in a deal ... you've got a young center fielder who has scored two seasons of 108 and 106 OPS+. He's got 30-homer upside and he's club controls for three (3) more years. You would think SOME team would see the glass as half-full on Saunders.
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Tom Verducci, suggesting trades for the Mariners, proposed
- Jeff Samardzija from Chicago
- Brett Anderson from Oakland
- David Price
Other possibilities, including FA's, are
- Cliff Lee
- Matt Garza (3.19, 3.59, and 3.73 xFIP's the last three years in a row)
- Tanaka
- Ubaldo Jimenez (3.30 ERA in American League last year)
- AJ Burnett
- Colon
- About five other guys
Tampa is imperiously insisting, If we deign to trade with Seattle, the deal WILL include Taijuan Walker.
There are enough options there, that you would think you could find some way to keep Taijuan and K-Pax. If I'm Zduriencik's boss, I'm directing him to find me the best option that does so.