MLBT-R projects Fowler to sign in the 4yr/$64M neighborhood.

So what is the value of a great glove COF who leads-off or bats second behind Segura?  For his career, Fowler has a .367 OBP batting lead-off.

Oh...one who has run oWAR of 3.8-2.4-3.7-3.5-4.1 over the past 5 years. Clockwork, man.

Then* I'm offering Martin + a young arm to St. Louis for Lance Lynn, fresh off TJ surgery.  

Do all that, and I'm loaded for bear.  BTW, Martins "2nd Half slump" last season was no such thing.  He hit for a higher average in the 2nd half (.251 vs. .243) and his BABIP was higher (.320-.305).  The only difference was that his  11 homers (unsustainable) and just 6 doubles in the first half turned into a normal 4 HR's and 11 doubles in the 2nd half.  The result was a perfectly clockwork 90-ish OPS+ guy in Martin.

Even if Haniger (likely) or Gamel didn't work out in CF you could just roll Fowler back into the middle.

I would rather have a near-.370 OBP guy (.393 last season) at the top of the order than Martin's glove in CF.  What does Martin arb at this year?  $9-$10M?  Fowler is only a few pennies more.

If only St. Louie would cooperate!!  

I'm done.

* I'm pretty confident that O'Neill gets RF soon enough this season.  That mostly doesn't change my Fowler-lust, at all.

I'm more interested in watching JeDi at work than trying to generate my own roster ideas. (Not that I've completely stopped the latter, you understand - just a shifting of priorities). If you know me at all, that probably shocks you.

M's nearing deal with Rzepczynski

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/mariners-nearing-deal-with-marc-rz...

* * *

Gotta love a LOOGY whose nickname is "Scrabble." I remember the first time I ever saw him pitch and noticed his name on his jersey. I immediately started counting the plethora of consonants compared to vowels.

Hey Doc - Off point. Did you change your email from the comcast address? I've tried contacting several times with no success. Could you drop me a line at tjm99@msn.com? Thx.

If Diaz had EVER had problems with health or stamina or late-game performance.  He hasn't - he just LOOKS more fragile, as a couple of other great starters have.  But DiPoto had a need and he filled it with Diaz. There's nothing wrong with that per se, but when the Ms tell us they just don't have the money for a good starter I'll once again be asking if they have the money for a good reliever, so that the starter we have closing for us can get into the rotation.

Until then, I'll keep enjoying the sight of Diaz overwhelming the opposition - as Sale did, and Archer would have. There are worse things.

At least we didn't trade him!

No news on whether anybody is interested in signing him. I still think it is curious that the Ms announced when Brian Hunter was promoted to coach at Tacoma that Pat Listach would have 3 assistants in 2017 rather than the previously customary 2. And since then ... nada. I'm thinking they've offered Guti the hitting coach job, maybe as a player/coach, and everyone is just waiting for FA signings to pick up to make a final decision. If it's in Guti's court -- c'mon Franklin, do it! 

Franklin has been known for his preparation and dedication. Rub a bit off on Haniger/Gamel/Heredia/O'Neill/et al.

I'm still hanging on to Martin, taking my chances that one or more of the low-budget and near-ready pitchers we are accumulating can contribute. However- I'm "all over" Smith + one of our young arms- even (gulp) Gohara- in exchage for McCutcheon. Furthermore, I'm much happier to pay $14M p.a. for McCutcheon on a two-year commitment than $16M p.a. for Fowler on a 4-year commitment. (Make sense? Agreed?!)

1.  Get McCutcheon and I would still trade Martin for Lance Lynn or Reyes/Weaver (were the Cards so amiable).. So that's a No. Our biggest/clearest/magnum-sized need is a TOR arm.  I'm making that swap out first.  Will say that I do not think we're adding a COF, but I enjoy the speculation. Butit appears that we are adding another MLB arm.  Fister doesn't excite me much...have said so.  Lance Lynn would be spiffy. Will add this:  I just (sigh!) figured out that Lynn is a FA in '18.  Hmmmm.....that changes the issue a bit.

2.  Trade Smith and Gohara for McCutcheon?  Count me in. That's a yes (see below), especially if we've added a young St. Louie arm, to balance the Gohara loss.   Weaver or Reyes and McCutcheon balances Gohara and Martin.  Will say this:  Reyes had the better MLB line last year, but I find Weaver at least as interesting. Maybe more so.  He's a former !st Round (#27) pick and his MiLB numbers have been stellar.  A Povse-Whelan-Moore-Weaver Kiddy Corps, knocking down the door is just wonderful in my eyes. I think you could get Weavre for Martin.  I also think the Cards are going to make a play for Sale.  They just traded Garcia.  Here's Weaver.  92-93 with the heater, works up and down really well.  His change is 82 and a weapon.  If St. Louis makes a play for Sale, we can get Weaver.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdaixYEhFJU

3. Would likely take two years of McCutcheon over 4 of Fowler. So that's a probable...but likely. Would consider.  The problem is the loss of Gohara forthe one and not the other.  Worth considering.  And of course, whether Pitts. will trade McCutcheon for what we have to offer. 

In my opinion, you push all your chips in now.

Now that Repchinski has signed, our best chances at improving are over Gamel and Starting Pitcher.

1) My first call would be to Aroldis Chapman's agent to see if he's trying to pursue starting again. If he is, offer him a backloaded 5 year $100 million contract with an opt out after 2 or 3 years. He may actually only want a 1 or 2 year deal so he has an opportunity at a $200 million payday next offseason as a proven SP. We slot him in as our #5 SP to stretch him out. If it doesn't work, you have a Two Headed Monster in the bullpen. What a tragedy, right.

2) Carlos Beltran at 2 years $12.5M per year to push Gamel to AAA. Beltran had an .850 OPS last season. Did Gamel do that at any point even in the minors?

Neither of them have Qualifying Offers attached. Double bonus.

Let Gamel, O'neill and Heredia roam AAA.The majority of our young talent has 2 options left. Use them. Gamel's numbers in the minors aren't impressive. He hasn't earned anything. Especially on a contender.

In my opinion, we need to keep the top of our minor league system stuffed down. Don't force guys like Luiz Gohara and Ben Gamel to come up until they force the issue. Many good teams have guys blocked for a year or two at AAA. Since when is that a problem?

Is Gamel going to blow our socks off in 2017? I doubt it. If he's not going to be good, he should never set foot out there again. Unless Beltran gets hurt. Then, show us what you've got kid. Play well enough to make sending you back to AAA not an option.

We currently have no proven talent at the MLB level even above average in the outfield. Year after year we think we're ok in the outfield going into the season. They need to put some actual proven talent out there in a year like this. 

This team hasn't earned the luxury of us letting them off the hook easy for going into the season again with these unproven rookies everywhere. Even 1B. Again. 

This wreaks of a situation where Geoff Baker would rip the team a new one for trying to go into another year counting on guys like Gamel, Maranda and Vogelbach when there was still $25 supposedly available in the budget.

Lusting after outfielders is fine.

I'm STRONGLY disposed to JD's statements that left on the list is better starting pitching.

Adherents of Shandler's site know that BPV (Base Player Value) is his bottom line--his version of WAR?

Anyway, the average pitcher in the American League last year was rated as 85 in this metric.

Here are selected values for other starters in our division:

Darvish: 128

McCullers: 120

Keuchel: 109

McHugh: 103

Hamels: 101 (No, I have no idea why this isn't higher)

Now, for the projected BPVs for our rotation:

Kuma: 104

Felix: 92

Paxton: 92

Karns: 81

Miranda: 33

In other words, no ace, and a non-competitive combined score?  

Maybe we need two, and not just one?