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Most scouts and coaches that we talk to, back-channel, are surprisingly friendly and accepting of SSI's shtick. This despite the fact that Dr. D is not as habitually tactful as baseball people have to be, in order to work together in such close quarters for such long hours.
They're friendly and accepting in part because they tend to be naturally gracious people, in part because they are hip to SSI's tongue-in-cheek angle, and in part because they're not put off by receiving information in addition to giving it.
Contrast this with the way we 'net rats treat each other ... :- )
Most baseball folks would rather not be 'outed' on any blog. I mean, what's the upside, with your boss, to getting caught in a flame war on the internet? Much less in being associated with some volatile blog author who might write who knows what the next day. It's just a lot easier, and wiser, to surf the 'net without diving in.
Still, one interesting poster did venture in to point out that 'the buzz around Walker is that he's a generational talent, something VERY special.' Regardless of whether he was DaddyO under a prank nickname or who he was, he reminded us of something key to the issue, if we're kibitzing possible trades of Taijuan Walker.
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On-Field View vs 'Net Rat View
If a scout told you that "the buzz is that Danny Farquhar will close next year" -- he wouldn't -- by "buzz" he would mean "it's one of the things that scouts, players, and coaches are buying in to." "Buzz" isn't a glossary term given much credence on most saber sites, but here (and, obviously, at Prospect Insider) it's a valued lane on the information highway.
Many times an author will focus on what he believes, and what Jack Zduriencik should do, as the author sees it. Let's not also forget what Jack Zduriencik and his people believe, and what they are likely to do. You're not going to learn about that, without giving credence to the field's-eye view, now are you.
So you stop and remind yourself about all the attributes that Taijuan Walker possesses, that sabermetricians do not care about, but which scouts (like Zduriencik) care dearly about:
- Taijuan's hand engulfs the baseball as if it were a ping-pong ball (tight-spin breaking pitches a la DiceK)
- He is nearly Pineda's size (natural leverage, release point, and endurance)
- His mechanics came around much faster than expected (learning curve is terrifying)
- Control "feels" reliable; contrast Paxton, who is much older (no worrisome "downside")
- He has "flashed" a Pedro curve
- His fastball is overwhelming (baseball people loooooove high-end velo)
- He has four (4) distinct pitches -- CURRENTLY regarded as two plus pitches, and two solid pitches (baseball people looooooove varied arsenals) (only Felix and Verlander have 95 MPH and 4 pitches)
- Overhand delivery. Hop on fastball. Cut on fastball. = "Exploding" fastball.
- His makeup is right where you want it to be, right down to calling people "sir"
- He worked beautifully with Zunino and Willis (like Paxton did, and like Maurer and Farquhar did NOT)
- He has been groomed entirely by the org, is a "pet discovery" to be proud of
- He came up to the big leagues and pitched very well, instantly...
- ... then shut it down, leaving a "sky's the limit" impression over the winter
And so what happens is you get a long series of scouts and coaches going, "Aha! THIS is what it looks like when you've got a Verlander, or Pedro, or Bob Gibson on your hands. Been awhile since we saw this!"
Take, for example, the Pedro curve. In three games, I think I counted 5 times that Taijuan legitimately cracked off a curve like that, a "best curve in baseball" pitch. Awesome arm action, "pop the parachute" effect causing the slowdown optical illusion, late break, acute angle as it crosses home plate, located to a side of the plate.
To the sabermigo, that's a big So What. Five great pitches, unquantifiable by F/X. To the baseball person, Taijuan has "flashed" the pitch that he will soon own. They've heard this song before. They're trying to project. You project by catching flashes.
............
Most scouts are probably thinking of Taijuan as being Justin Verlander at least. Suppose that, at the All-Star Break 2014, he has had 18 Rookie Verlander starts. You deal him for Stanton then? It would be irresponsible. You've got Taijuan for six years.
Personally, my bias is towards K-Pax. I think he's the one who is cool, and fun to watch pitch ... actually I never really got that attached to Felix. It's just a bias.
But objectively speaking, I've got to admit Taijuan is going to be the guy with the mammoth value inside baseball. It wouldn't surprise me if Taijuan's value were higher right now -- in the eyes of GM's -- than Felix' was than he was called up. (But as our friend, above, also reminded: you never know what any particular GM is going to do. Stay on your toes.)
Whichever side of the Cabrera/Stanton/Aaron trade market you're taking, buzz is you'll have to leave Taijuan out of it.
BABVA,
Dr D