Thursday Afternoon Tazoberry!
The mighty SSI think tank swats the news feed into the 2nd deck

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NICE CALL DAWG

The Mariners' website has a random GM opinion that Eric Filia has become a top big-league prospect.  Well, by "top" we mean not Otani-Harper galactic class, but by "top" meaning "Class A player with a great chance to become a big leaguer."  You only say that about a few low-minors prospects a year.  

And DiPoto sez that Moe Dawg has the right idea about why:

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"He understands how to manage an at-bat as well as anybody in our organization," Dipoto said. "It's not a huge power bat, more of a contact, gaps bat. He has a .422 on-base percentage [in two years in the Minors]. Guys who do that play in the big leagues. That's as simple as I can make it."

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Review the list of 2017 major leaguers who had OBP's of .350 or more, and you will find relatively few who are about to be dropped from the travelin' squad.

That's setting the bar at just .350.  There were only 30 such players per league last year, the worst of whom was Brett Gardner.  Okay, reviewing our class to date:  if you get on base, you play in the big leagues.  That's as simple as I can make it.  :: innocent smile ::  Filia can obviously defend the strike zone back-to-front, 95 MPH to 80 MPH, and is a top prospect.

Power, fielding, speed, that moves a guy from "plays" to "banks huge jack."  Filia is probably going to see his name on a jumbo-tron near you.  (Along those lines, don't forget that Guillermo Heredia had the best BB/K in Seattle after the 3-4-5 hitters and Dyson.  Heredia can tell a ball from a strike and it's a plus for him.)

Also, go ahead and enjoy the AFL.  It's not as meaningless as they try to tell yer.

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ONCE A DECADE "PERFECT STORM" SPORTS MOTION

Kate Preusser has a terrif piece up at LL with gorgeous side-gifs of Ohtani's swing.  Dr's Diagnosis:  this player would be a top-10 high school college ammy pick as a hitter alone.  Top Ten Draftee End Of Story, no pitching considered.  It will be like adding a huge 1st-round pick for free, along with everything else ... for the Angels, of course.  LOL.

More later, a three-parter or something.  Ohtani's swing is unique in baseball history, and by "baseball history" of course we mean in the history of Dr. D's TV-watching, same thing more or less as you are aware.

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WBC-SAN

I hadn't thought about the Ohtani recruiting factor here, had you?

Turns out that Ohtani works out at Iwakuma's glitzy training facility in Japan, so obviously they're best buds.  Take that, Scioscia.  On the recruiting trail, I'll give you twenty (that's 20) Albert Pujols and Ken Griffey Jr's for every one Hisashi Iwakuma.  This is a man who can positively guarantee the org's cushiness - and be there in the locker room when he lands.  (In March; it's not an issue of making the rotation.)

:: gets a grip :: Not everything is about Ohtani.  Iwakuma is one of my all-time faves.  A year off could bring his arm back, for 20 25 starts anyhow, and how sweet would that be.  "With huge gratitude in his heart" - HEH!!, gotta love these Iwakuma-isms - he accepted an offer that DiPoto brilliantly laid out long ago.  

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Serious question.  Has everybody here forgotten that when Iwakuma is physically right, he is a top, top AL starter?  His arm bounces back and he'll give you Tanaka-level games, for a few bucks less.  The M's aren't messing around with him because they have nothing better to do.

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SAM MOLL, LHP

The M's picked up a lefty from the Pirates to "add to the mix."  Dr. D greatly dislikes his sports motion.  We could make the scouts lurking answer a pop quiz, but we'll give you the answers without resistance:

  • Upright in a way that lacks power
  • Much less graceful than you want from a LH
  • Telegraphs the slider ... because poor control of the CG late
  • Watch from pelvis to chest only, and the whole thing is simply not convincing (by big-league standards)

That said, we're sure he'll mush his way to Tony Fossas legend now.

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MOUTH RINSE

If you're wanting to get back to basking in kinetic glory:  see the photo leading in.  You're welcome.  On behalf of calltothepen.com, of course.

Be Afraid,

Dr D

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Comments

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20-25 starts from Kuma would mean a great deal to the M's, simply because if he gets 20-25 starts it means he is throwing like the old Kuma.  But there is something very attractive about him coming in in the 6th and throwing 2 innings 40 times a year, too.  I have to imagine that he was told he'll have a chance to earn a rotational spot in ST.  But he must have said he would be oK with a BP slot, as well.

I think I said before that it wouldn't bother me to see Filia skip AA and head right to Tacoma.  But I suppose a AA stop is in the cards. No problem, but let's not make him prove for 75 games that he can hit AA; if he hits .320-.400 for the first 30-40 games, get him to Tacoma, let him face a bunch of 30 year old wise-guy throwers, and evaluate him in a hurry .    Kyle Seager went AA to Safeco back in 2011.

In '10, Seager had a vR line, in the A+ High Desert, of .334-.417-.495.  Filia just went .374-.459-.529.  Not to say that he is better than Seager, but only that Eric Filia has just plain hit, regardless of what level you want to look at.  I am sure he was a heck of a T-Ball hitter, too, even though he likely didn't walk that much back then.

It seems pretty amazing that only 30 guys had OBP's that were north of .350 in the '17 AL.  It seems like the league values the pure ability to get on base in spurts and starts.  In '90-'92, the league OBP's were .327, .329 and .328.  Not great.  In '93 it jumped to .337.  From '94 to '00 (which includes a couple of seasons of the live ball era), the OBP ran from .340-.350.  It was up about 6% in just two seasons and remained there.  From '01-'09, the league average was as low as .330 and as high at .339.  It had dropped nearly halfway back to where it had been.  In '10, a transitional year, is was down to .327.  From '11-'16, it was as low as .316 and never higher than .321.  We had hit new lows in the most modern era.  In '17 it was up slightly to .324.

I know that the modern flamethrowing bullpen is shaping the game, but it seems that good old fashioned OBP guys have lost value, or are harder to find.  B. Beane's Moneyball season of '02 saw the A's use 7 regulars or semi-regulars with OBP higher than .350, although at .339 the A's were only 5th in the league.  But the point appears to have been made, as the league's OBP had an upward trend for 7 years.  Since then, it seems to have been forgotten about, to some degree.

BTW, those Moneyball A's really focused purely on OBP at only 2.5 positions:  Hatteberg, at 1B, hit only 15 HR's but ran that .374 OBP out there.  Justice, iin LF, hit but 11 HR's, with a .376 OBP.  Part time DH Ray Durham had only 6 HR's (248 PA's) but a .350 OBP. 

All the same, it seems that teams focus less on OBP right now. 

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