Seattle Sports Insider

Wednesday Morning Macchiato - 5.17.17

and what could be sweeter than a Mariners postmortem

Posted by

5/17/17

No, there weren't any SportSpyder links that seemed likely to pique the interest of the erudite Denizen. Yes, the Mariners are sucking wind in their attempt to even draft the leaders, considering they are out their top four starting pitchers and their "minor deity" rookie. No, there was not enough to pick through in Tuesday's loss, to justify a postgame. Yes, there was one baseball item of interest (to Dr. D), that being on 538.com:

First of all, you NeverTrumpers, note that Dr. D is into far-left sites. Up to and including Nate Silver and TheDailyKos. Hold it, let's separate that out, like 538.com itself does...

Second of all, the baseball shtick.

The graph above tells us that --- > if a random MLB hitter changes his launch angle, he's as likely to gain or lose, whichever way he changes his launch angle. As you go up or down the graph, batters got better or worse RESULTS. As you go left or right, batters hit FEWER or MORE fly balls.

....

That does NOT mean that Ben Gamel might not have gained by changing from 4% to 12%. The X-axis above is based on an MLB-average launch angle, that being what, 10% or something? The entire graph is based on hitters changing from 10% to 14% or to 6%. It says nothing about the specific case of Ben Gamel.

....

Also, only a fraction of the hitters (represented by the gray dots) intentionally changed their launch angles. Intent is important, as Zazu Pachulia and Gregg Popovich could tell you.

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Also, it doesn't speak to the issue of those 10% of hitters who were "broken." Maybe those are disproportionately in the right-upper quadrant?

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I dunno. But once again, the evidence comes in on James' side that the Fly Ball Revolution is probably MORE fad than it is fact, for MOST hitters. Good instincts on his part. Not that I'm a sycophant of James'; actually I'm a little disaffected with him this year. But if Socrates is on the hill, you do well to climb it once a week.

....

Gamel report: Tuesday night he had an 0-for-5 with three strikeouts, although he didn't swing at pitches outside the zone and didn't swing and miss much. They just threw him tough pitches on this particular night. He sits at .288/.402/.452 on the season, batting 145+ with five runs added on the bases.

Enjoy,

Dr D

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Comments

Segura

Is hurting his value on the basepaths. He currently has 5 stolen bases and 4 caught stealing to go along with the pickoff last night.

He has to have negative base running values at this point. There have been a couple close outs on his steal attempts, but close isn't close enough in the days of instant replay.

Maybe the added muscle slows him down half a step. I don't know, nor do I care. He's not on MY team to steal bases. He has first base to third base on a single type speed, that's what counts in my book.

Just stay at 1B and let the guys behind you do their job. Or, get Gamel hit and running. How many years has it been since we've seen a hit and run attempt. We just saw a successful hit and run against us the other night. An underutilized play on the M's, imo.

He seemed pretty quick beating out that DP last night

I wonder if it's more the problem that he doesn't know the pitchers' moves. Or that the AL is just a higher league :- )

Personally I was always skeptical of JeDi's vision that Dyson and Segura would be running wild in Safeco. Don't know what it is; maybe it's my vague suspicion that Seattle always gets outscouted?

If I had to guess I'd say his hammy has slowed him down.

While I'm sure he's totally healthy he might not be able to get those legs moving 100% yet. I think he'll get them back by the end of the season. But I mean he's been such a phenominal hitter AND defender that he can't lose much value on the bases. He should probably just hold back on the steals for a bit.

Agreed, twice

Thought Gamel looked good, even during a couple of the K's. His 2nd AB was an 8 or 9 pitch AB. He needs some hits, however. On the Segura attempted SB, I wondered if he ran on his own on that one. 2-0 pitch, hitter's count, you know Gamel will get something on the plate because Cruz is up next....... You're better letting him stay and wait.

I went to bed relatively early, down 4-1, sure we would score a run or two but lose. Had that feeling. I was right. But I didn't anticipate THAT loss.

Altavilla for another inning might have worked!

Question for you Moe (or others)

Do you think Gamel is swinging through pitches in rather an unnerving way?

Don't know what has me thinking that. His SwStr% is real good. But he seems to badly miss pitches that a star hitter (Cano, Cruz, Segura) would never miss so cleanly. Or is it just me?

Not to say he needs Segura-type HIT ability to play well.

As a team

They're 28-11 in thefts. It was Dyson, 10-2, and Martin who's stuck at 4-1 that were supposed to lead the way. Heredias 1-2 is about as troubling. 28 steals in 40 games is way off pace to break the team record, which is what I was originally hoping for. The record seasons were approx. 1.074 SB per game, 174 total. Not looking likely at all.

Any idea why?

You'd think with the lineup being so dangerous in the batter's box, stealing bases would be easier.

Martin and Dyson were taking

Martin and Dyson were talking about racing each other, that's not happening. That includes Martin not accruing any now. Heredia isn't gunning at all. Haniger is at only 2-1 until at least sometime next week. Segura has been covered. Motter at 4-0 is probably the only guy on the pace I'd have expected going into the season. Dyson still isn't doing poorly though.

Strike one

The one K I saw (his 2nd AB) he missed, fooled on a curve, and then missed again on a ball high and out of the strike zone. It would have been ball four.

I've written before that he seems too passive on strike one, too willing to take it right down the tube. The 2-0 pitch that Segura was thrown out on was one of those.

Will have to watch for the swing throughs.

DL

Cano on the 10 Day. Booger back up. Tyler Smith on the 40 Man wouldn't miff me.

Which is 2 more days, right :- )

If they make it retroactive.

Dodgers' 'abuse' of the new 10-day rule?

At BJOL they are discussing the idea that the Dodgers are abusing the new 10-day (not 15-day) DL to massage their rotation. Can somebody explain what's happening there? I don't follow the NL.

They said something like "nobody gets 200 innings except Kershaw" but I can't connect the dots why they would want this or why it would be abuse of the system.

dodgers

basically they have too many starters to fit in a rotation and all of them are either established guys with big contracts that it's hard to picture in the pen (maeda, ryu, mccarthy, rich hill), young guys who are pitching better than the old established guys (urias, alex wood), or kershaw (kershaw)

so basically what they've been doing is coming up with very conveniently timed and iffy-sounding "injuries" for the veteran guys. mccarthy supposedly tweaked his shoulder (non-throwing, luckily!) in a "weight room incident"... maeda came up with "hamstring tightness" a day after pitching into the 9th... ryu felt something... somewhere... all three of them have missed exactly one start and come back fit as a fiddle and ready to pitch precisely on the 10th day, the team having meanwhile enjoyed the additional pen arm (or, more to the point, not had to demote any High-Status Veterans to the bullpen) for the intervening 9 days. everybody gets more rest... it's really not a bad system, as long as the league office keeps their big nose out of it

nice thing is, everybody's at least a little bit injured all the time (i know i am), so, on some level it's hard to argue with

Cliff's notes

That was a pro-quality sum up.

Agree with your last line also; the DL trips (in any sport) aren't lies, exactly, but other teams have legit grievances because they could be doing the same thing but you don't want it done industrywide.