Terms of Ackley's officially inked deal with the Mariners have been released in spits and bits over the last half hour. It appears he will make 9.5 mil smackers, which, compared to all previous Mariner draft picks, sounds like a gigantic number.
We note, however, that his signing bonus is not unreasonable for a #2 pick (6 million signing bonus...the team bedgetted for that by drafting a little light with picks #2 and #3), and that his contract is a five year deal. Which means he's not going to make significantly more than a random international free agent would make if his career got him to the majors in 2 years. Seriously...do the math on that...3.5 mil over 5 years...that's 700 k per year...which is roughly equivalent to the 700K signing bonus an IFA gets plus contracts worth (say) 30K, 45K, 400K, 750K, and 1.5 mil (about what Jose Lopez made, for example).
The USSM folks should be dancing in the aisles about this one...in VORP/$ world, that's asking Ackley to be worth at least (wait for it)...4 whole wins above bench...in five years (using the arbitration eligible pay scale of 2.2-2.5 mil per WAB). :)
Who here is willing to take the under on that bet?
The Mariners certainly aren't...Zduriencik is a decisive guy...he thinks with absolute conviction that Ackley will be fast to the bigs, succeed when he gets here and a big part of our very next pennant.
As Dr. D would say...Standing O!
With the 5 year contract, we bought out two arbitration years, right? If Ackley performs to expectation (1 year in the minors, 1 year to get acclimated, 1 year to show his talent, comfortably performing by year 4), who knows how much we would have paid him in his first 2 years in arbitration.
Is my understanding of arbitration years off here? Is it fair to assume he'd make at least 5 mil in those two years of arbitration that we bought out?
Is, let's say Ackley took two years to make the majors, then years 4-5 (from now) wouldn't have BEEN arb years under a standard contract. Yet Ackley gets to jump ship after those years, +1, anyway.
If Ackley's in the lineup next April, then yep, the M's have avoided arb for two of those years. Which is huge - so huge that you've got to assume Boras has a clause in there. If it's just the reported $2M incentives for making the majors quickly, then the M's might have saved millions on this deal.
I love it, but I really wish we signed him to more years... 5 years and then hes gone... I'm as big an Ackley fan as anyone.. I wanted more years if we're going with an MLB contract.
But Boras is focused.
If he's going to see a draftee take 25 cents on his market dollar, he's going to position the client for fair-market $ ASAP.
He ain't going to let us have it both ways...
Part of Zduriencik's plan on Ackley, is that he loves to play ball .. Z's M.O. is to woo the player while he has him...
Boras is about nothing but banking jack, true, but some of his players overrule him...
Z has a good five years to help Ackley "fall in love with" the org and the locale, as Z put it on Jack Wilson...
It seems that 99% of the analysis of the contract and discussion is focused ONLY on the scenarios that have Ackley playing in Safeco for at least part of 2010. This is not to say that these projections are unreasonable ... just that the side of the equation that is getting ignored is the ... "oops, we were wrong" variables. What are THOSE odds?
'96 - #2 - Travis Lee
'97 - #2 - J.D. Drew
'98 - #2 - Mulder (#3 Corey Patterson)
'99 - #2 - Beckett (#3 Eric Munson)
'00 - #2 - Adam Johnson (P) - (#3 Luis Montanez)
'01 - #2 - Prior - (#5 - 2nd hitter - Teixeira)
'02 - #2 - B.J. Upton
'03 - #2 - Ricky Weeks
'04 - #2 - Verlander (SS Matt Bush was #1 - next hitter Chris Nelson)
'05 - #2 - Alex Gordon
So, the odds certainly seem to favor Ackley being AT LEAST a serviceable MLB player. I included the #3 pick for years where the #2 was a pitcher. What's interesting is exactly how steep the failure curve actually is. The top 2 picks are actually pretty reliable, (pitcher's fare worse, typically due to injury), but all in all, a pretty safe bet. But, the #3 to #10 picks in the draft, not so much. The 10 #3 picks from '96 - '05 ...
Braden Loopez
Troy Glaus
Corey Patterson
Eric Munson
Luis Montanez
Dewan Brazelton
Chris Gruler
Kyle Sleeth
Philip Humber
Jeff Clement
To borrow a phrase ... how many of those guys would you think ... "Here's somebody we can build a WS winner with."
Given the odds on top 2 picks, I'd agree that mathematically, it's a reasonable gamble. I think that beyond the top 2 picks, the question of reasonable gamble (throwing multiple millions at kids), quickly gets debateable.
While I don't deny the math of it ... my philisophical position is unchanged ... that it is inherently bad to reward people "exorbidantly" before they've actually done anything. It's one thing to give a college grad a nice company car to intice him to work for Spacely instead of Cogswell -- it's another to hand the new grad a multiple millions on day one, while the guys who've been doing the job for a decade are making a comparitive pittance. This is NOT a good business model to incentivize loyalty or work ethic. It's the ultimate end idiocy that leads clubs to playing the guy making $12 million a year, no matter how badly he stinks.
I agree that there are problems with MLB salary model -- 3 years apprenticing for free -- 3 years "salary slavery" -- 3 years "performance bonuses" -- then finally allowed to hit the open market. It's a bad system, but the draft is worse ... and it's not just MLB. The NBA already has the rookie cap, and the NFL, the most "socialistic" of the major sports, (and most profitable), is already moving to address the draft day idiocies as well.
As far as I understand...we still get the full six years of club control on Ackley and his contract doesn't go into effect until next year (he gets his signing bonus now...but his clock doesn't count down to zeor until the end of the 2015 season)
...then his arby years would probably start in 2013. His contract buys out 2013 and 2014 and by 2015, his 3rd arby year, he'll hopefully have signed an extension.
If he doesn't reach the majors until 2011, then his arby years start in 2014 and we only buy out year 1.
All it really means is that he is on the 40-man immediately. That'll start his option year clock ticking sooner. That's it. The service time issue related to arbitration is unchanged. Arbitration only means that a player is eligible after 3 service years if he is not currently under contract. Best case scenario for the M's regarding arbitration is that Ackley is great from the get-go and makes the show very early.