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Q.  Where is Erik Bedard's performance going to be, going forward?  Assuming he feels okay.

A.  If he fixes his pitching motion, he's going to be the old Erikkk (a #1-2 starter when his arm's fresh).  If he does not fix his pitching motion, he's going to be fairly good, like he has been in 2012 -- almost 9 K's, but a sloppy 4 walks, and a high'ish HR rate that is deserved.

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Q.  Say WHAT?  What's wrong with his pitching motion?!

A.  In the shout box, amigos wanted to know whassup with Erikkk.  Sigh.  We pulled up a vid from his last good Pirates start, August 6th.  Here came the first pitch and ... Dr. D fell out of his chair.

By the fourth pitch, he honestly felt like crying.  Dr. D never actually cries in his personal life - he'll go to a corny movie and get a lump in his throat - but not about real things.  On this one, it felt just like watching Secretariat try to run with a rock in his hoof.  I'm still sitting here like wishing I could cry to vent the melancholy.

We'll make a long story short:  if you compare this Pirates video, Aug. 6th 2012, to this Mariners video, June 22nd 2011, you'll see that the Mariner Bedard used to confidently come over-the-top with his release, fingers on top of the ball, and effortlessly drive the ball without over-striding.  The Pirate Bedard is crawling down the centerline like a Roto Rooter man under the floor, over-striding, coming wayyyy sidearm.  His natural delivery is regal, almost arrogant; the new delivery is grovelling.

You can comp the videos, or just compare these two release-point charts before and after.  The first one is from his Mariners days; the second one is from last month.  

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The typical Seattle release point was about 6 feet off the ground and, oh, 2 feet 3 inches toward first base.  Nowadays, it's 5 feet 7 inches off the ground and a full 3 feet over toward 1B.

Moving your release point down by half a foot, and over to 1B by almost a foot, that probably sounds like a subtle thing to you ... if you're a soccer fan.  If in doubt, just run back and watch the videos.

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Q.  What are the ramifications of throwing sidearm?

A.  The WORST ramification, among many, are that his fingers are now on the side of the ball.  This (among many other problems) has caused his curve ball to flatten out, as is also confirmed by this F/X data.  His curve last year broke DOWN by 9.5 inches; this year it's 7.2.  Notice also that the HR problems have all occurred on curve balls, on which his HR/FB is 18% instead of 6-10%.

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Q.  Why would he be doing this?  Injury?

A.  Looks to me like he is trying to steer the ball along the centerline, as if to ensure a strike by sheer force of will.  Here's another before-and-after pic that gets across the "grovel" mentality as the ball hits the strike zone.  Look at the Pittsburgh Pirate.  Is it a strike?  Huh?  Huh?  Is it?

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ude relates to his crouching and crawling down the centerline throughout the whole motion.

PART TWO

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