Felix Hernandez Scouting Report: CURVE BALL
Jaso is stretching that strike zone back to front.

.

With two out and the bases empty in the second inning Monday, the left handed Ryan Doumit (.285/.333/.466, a 118 OPS+ this year, a 130 OPS+ last year) came to bat against Felix Hernandez.

John Jaso, who has now caught 7 of Felix' last 8 starts, called for a first-pitch fastball on the outside edge of the plate.  I replayed it several times; Jaso did not move his glove even one (1) inch to catch Felix' 93 MPH fastball.  It literally was not possible for Jaso's glove to remain more stationary than it did.  Doumit did not arrive at a 118 OPS+ by swinging at first-pitch, 0-0 fastballs two inches outside the plate, so Felix' 0-1 count was "automatic."

 ..............................................

On the second pitch, Jaso called for an overhand curve ball, which Felix threw "back door" at 81 MPH.  The pitch started outside the strike zone and broke very sharply onto the outside one-fourth of the plate.  Doumit swung (1) well out in front and (2) well over the top of the diving pitch, at least six inches over it.  He did not "freeze" or buckle -- left hand hitters don't buckle on back door curves -- but he was out in front as if the pitch were a deadfish changeup.

On the third pitch, Jaso rejected the idea of an 0-2 "waste pitch," and doubled up the curve ball.  Felix "buried" the pitch, aiming it to begin as though it were heading for the strike zone, and then intending for it to break down out of the zone.  Doumit was fooled worse on the second curve than the first one, in part because he was "forced" with two strikes.  He swung farther out in front, and missed the pitch by a wider margin.  In fact Doumit swung as far out in front as you ever see an ML hitter do.  

Jaso smothered the ball in the dirt and then casually tagged Doumit out while leaning back towards the dugout.  Felix' tempo, the entire three-pitch, was brisk and bored, as though he were taking free throws in garbage time of a 118-79 basketball game.

.

=== I Double-Dog Dare You, Dept. ===

A couple of facts about this at-bat:

Right hand pitchers are supposed to throw sliders and curves to right hand batters, but changeups to left hand batters.  You might recall last March that Michael Pineda was "forbidden" by cyber scouts to start the year in the majors, because he had no changeup with which to battle left hand batters.  There are exceptions to this generalizations, as people learned, and these exceptions include Felix and Pineda.  But do bear in mind the fact that it is much harder to use breaking pitches when the matchup is RHP-vs-LHB.   Not impossible, not absolute in any way, but harder.

Doumit, by the way, has big numbers against RHP's and a major dropoff against LHP's.  This year he's hitting .300/.350/.500 against RHP's.

A pitcher is playing with fire when "doubling up" any offspeed pitch to a batter.  The "shock" to the hitters' eyes is the main advantage to a pitch that is less than fast.  ML hitters will confirm that it is not the break on a pitch that gives them trouble; it is adjusting to the speed.  On the second straight offspeed pitch, there is no speed adjustment.

I didn't remember the last time I saw a RHP double up a slow curve to a LH batter, much less induce such a garbage swing on the second one.  This got me to wondering, "Does Felix have the best curve in baseball?"  And what we found would ... um, will ... make an article in itself :- )  

Till then, here's a great Fangraphs article on the subject.  Their approach, in my opinion, is not very convincing, but the article is a great read.  The actual best curves among SP's, it says here, are thrown by Burnett, Beckett, Verlander, Strasburg, Kershaw*, Sabathia* and Felix.  Which is the very best of these is an interesting, but not very important, question.  Gio Gonzalez*, David Price*, Jered Weaver, Adam Wainwright, and, yes, Doug Fister are in the next tier from where SSI stands, er, loiters.

.

=== The Curve's Place in Felix' Arsenal ===

Whether Felix has the very best curve in baseball is one question.  A weightier question is this one:  "Does Felix have the best offspeed arsenal ... in baseball history?"  And the burden of proof is on you:  you'll have to prove to me that he does not.

Pedro had two Plus-Plus-Plus offspeed pitches:  his curve and change were both ranked 80 by scouts.  Would you rather have that, or rather have three pitches ranked 70-80?  Hmmm.

David Cone had four Plus offspeed pitches, four of them at least 60, and one of them 70-80.  Is that preferable?  In his prime in Japan, Dice-K probably had the same.

Randy Johnson had a Frisbee power slider that ranked "better than 80."  :- )  Would you rather have that single pitch, or Felix' curve, "changeup" dry spitter, and slider?  Hmmm.

There's one pitcher I've ever seen, besides Felix, who had three different wipeout breaking pitches.  That being Justin Verlander, who is contemporary with Felix; Verlander only throws 49% fastballs and cutters, despite having probably the best heater (velo, location, angle and stamina) in the world.  ... This 4-great-pitch group may soon include Doug Fister.

..................

Another important question:  what makes a great curve ball?  Is it the arm action?  Would you rather have a pitcher who can locate it, like Orel Hershiser, or one whose arm action buckles a hitter's knees, like Aaron Sele?  Should it tilt on two planes, like Felix' does, or should it drop straight down, like Beckett's?  Which of history's yellow hammers would you prefer to throw, if it were you?

.................

The important thing is this.  Felix needs to throw his curve ball more.  It is the one pitch he throws that is not in the 85-94 MPH band of velocity, the one pitch that stretches the strike zone back to front.

He had been throwing it only 10-12% in the first half.  But he threw his overhand curve 24 times in the perfecto, 20 for strikes, 18 not in play, 10 for whiffs.  He threw it 22 times Monday, in his 1-0 shutout.  With Jaso at the helm, let's stretch that zone along the z-axis.

Comments

1

Remember the last two months of Felix guys. You may never see a pitcher better for that length of time. Never. Really. I posted a bit ago about this, after his last start, so I won't double up. He is currently the master of the pitching universe.
Doc, I don't know how you would do it, but someone should look back ofver the last 20-30 years and find how mant two-month, 14 start, 9-0, 1.next-to-nothing ERA, stretches there are in the DH'ed AL.
109 innings, 17 ER's 17 BB's and 101 K's.
Inhale these fumes guys, and enjoy.
moe
He just won his 4th 1-0 game in that stretch, and one of those was the best pitched game we've ver seen. IN three of his last 5 starts, he's had the Grande El Perfecto, a 5-hit shutout and a 2-hit shut out (Yankees).

2
Fett42's picture

Four pitchers show up in the league's starters' top ten listings for Fastball, Curveball, Slider, Changeup twice:
Kershaw: #2 Curveball, #4 Fastball
Weaver: #1 Fastball, #8 Curveball
Sabathia: #5 Slider, #9 Curveball
Verlander: #5 Curveball, #6th Fastball
No pitchers show up in the top ten listings for three of those four pitches.
One pitcher shows up in the top ten for EVERY pitch:
Felix: #6 Changeup, #6 Curveball, #8 Slider, #9 Fastball
So yes, in 2012, King Felix throws four pitches that are all top 9 of their type on the planet.

3

Possible argument for human cloning:
SP1 Felix Hernandez
SP2 Felix Hernandez
SP3 Felix Hernandez
SP4 Felix Hernandez
SP5 Felix Hernandez
LR Felix Hernandez
SU Felix Hernandez
SU Felix Hernandez (don't need a lefty)
8th Felix Hernandez
CL Wilhelmsen (variety... who doesn't love Insano)
DH Felix Hernandez

5
ghost's picture

The only problem I can see with that pitching staff is that ti would cost 180 million dollars. :)
Felix is truly something to behold at this point...I can't even fathem how a guy as good as Felix just invents a new cutter and decides to throw his curve more than his slider and suddenly turns into Walter Johnson. Unbelievable.

6
tjm's picture

. . . allowed one run or none in 24 starts. Different era, obviously, but nobody else put up a 1.12 era.

7

I refuse to believe that there are five guys with better changeups than Felix's in the game of baseball.

9

1.  Historically, I think you're going to find several 2-month runs of near-shutout baseball.  Somebody could go back through Pedro's monthly splits and find back-to-back months of 0+ ERA's somewhere, probably.  Randy Johnson, maybe Curt Schilling, Clemens, maybe Greg Maddux.
2.  There are going to be certain aspects of Felix' run that are unique, probably, like number of 1-0 victories, or high Game Scores around a Perfect Game, etc.
3.  The thing about Felix is that he is ON this run, creating the possibility that this is his new level.  Well, you know what I mean.
Santana's run was spectacular, but I never thought that 1+ ERA was his permanent level.  He had a great changeup.  People were going to adjust.

10

Maybe not even one, except Gaylord Perry and Burleigh Grimes.
Great job there Fett... see what happens when you go back and check pitchers over a period of several years.  Most people with high run values on a pitch THIS year did not have them in 2010 and 2011 also.  When you start asking, who had the run values on a changeup the last 3-5 years, you start seeing where Felix' changeup is really at...
Excellent list though m'man.  Very convincing.

11

The actual causes for Felix running less than an infinity value on the change... for one thing, BABIP and/or random chance enters in.  He throws 18 changeups and gets 18 terrible swings on it, but one swing might bloop a ball in rather than popping it foul.  Or if one freezes a batter, and the ump calls it a ball, that ruins the pitch value.
Also, Felix puts a lot of pressure on his changeup.  If he threw it 6 times a game, as a surprise weapon, it would probably always draw 6 swings and misses :- ) but there are times he throws it 40 times in a game.  
Run values represent the end-of-day hitting outcomes on pitches, like a slugging percentage does, rather than the pitches' quality in flight.  All that said, Felix' run values on his changeup consistently run 2+, year after year, despite the fact that he throws it constantly.  It is probably the most productive single pitch in baseball over a period of years.

13

Good stuff, Fett.
To compare apples to apples (total starts-wise). From July 17th-Sept. 14th that year, Santana had his best 14-start run.
He went 13-0 (Wow), allowing 13 ER's over 99 innings. He walked 22 and K'ed 124. He pitched no complete games, but did go one 4 game run (7, 7, 7, & 8 innings) allowing zero runs.
His ERA was 1.2 over that streak.
Felix threw more innings, but Santana had those 13 wins. Santana walked more, but K'ed more. Felix's K/BB was very fractionally better, but they were both just south 6/1. Santan had the 29 inning shutout run, but Felix threw 4 1-0 games, including a Perfecto.
All in all....hard to say that Santana's was better. Certainly not clearly better.
I'm leaning toward Felix with 4 complete game shutouts AND the Perfecto.
But let's call it a tie, and see what else comes up.
moe

14

During Gibson's best 15-game streak (I added an extra) in '68, from June 6th-Aug. 19th, he threw 15 straight complete games, one of them 11 innings (Earlier in the season, on My 1st and 6th, he threw back-to-back 12 and 11 inning games, winning 2-1 and 3-1)
15 straight CG's! 10 were shutouts. He pitched 137 innings, giving up 8 earned runs (4 in one start). That's an ERA of .53! He walked 21 guys and K'ed 116, slightly worse than Felix's rate recently.
I didn't mention Gibby's run, or Drysdale's...or even Hershiser's, because the vast majority of us didn't see them and don't remember them. I was 10 in the summer of '68 and i don't really remember it, just reading about it (I do remember the WS that year, however).
I'll have to check Hershiser's and a great Maddux streak to see how they compare. Will let you know.
But looking at Hoot Gibson's streak, it is no wonder they lowered the dang mound!
moe
Edit: Hershiser in '88 does not have a prolonged streak like Felix's. He finished the season with 5 consecutive CG shutouts, then a 10-inning shutout performance, which the Dodger's later lost.. 9 BB's and 34 K's during that streak. But in the previous 8 games he had allowed a whole 21 ER's in 55 innings. Overall he was 11-2 with a 1.66 ERA. w/27 BB's and68 K's. Great, and all those shutout innings in a row are amazing, but it probably doesn't better Felix's performance.
In '96 Maddux had one 14-game streak of 14 ER's in 104.2, a 1.2 ERA and a 9-0 record. He had another 15-game streak (which overlapped the other) of 19 ER's in 111.1 innings = 1.54 ERA and an 11-1 record.
In the middle of those two overlaping streaks he had games where he game up 5 and 3 ER's. Take those two games away and he had 200 innings and 33 ER's.
I didn't do a study for Maddux's '94 season , which was just as impressive.
Felix's run stands up to those. Gibson threw on the raised mound with a much lower league ERA. Hershiser and Maddux
didn't face a DH. And despite those things, Felix compares very favorably in raw numbers. Maybe better. I'm not saying Felix's is the best two-month run ever, but my point stands: We may never see one clearly better.

15
Brent's picture

was never taken out of a game from the pitchers' mound. 34 starts, 28 complete games, and the 6 he didn't finish he was lifted for a pinch-hitter when the Cards were batting. 22-9 record. He was also a victim of no run support. How do you lose NINE games with an ERA of 1.12?
Another note about pitching in 1968. In both leagues the Cy Young award was unanimous. 30 game winner Denny McLain in the AL, and Gibson in the NL. Juan Marichal went 26-9 that year with a 2.43 ERA and didn't get a single first place Cy Young vote.

16

(1) Much less recognized than Gibson's 1968, but still worthy of mention was the season of fellow Cardinal John Tudor in 1985. Over a twenty game run, he pitched 9 shutouts and ran a 16-1 record with a 1.08 ERA.  He didn't win the Cy Young though because Doc Gooden did that year.
(2) Regarding the quality of Felix's change-up, of all starters since 2009 that have thrown 500 or more innings, Felix's change-up has the best runs saved per 100 pitches of 2.63.  Second place is a tie between Cole Hamels and Jered Weaver at 1.83.
(3) By that measure, Adam Wainwright has the best curve -- and wicked it is!
(4) I was curious to see how good all of Pedro's pitches actually were according to fangraphs pitch value page.  The first year they have is 2002, so it misses Pedro's three best years, but i5 does cover his last 4 excellent years.  So filtering for pitchers that threw at least 500 IP and got at least 10 runs saved total for the pitch (to filter out odd pitch assignments), Pedro ranks 7th for FB, 11th for SLIDER, 6th for CB, and 3rd for CHANGE-UP.  Using the same criteria over 2009-2012, Felix ranks 12th for FB, 28th for SLIDER, 11th for CB, and 1st for CHANGE-UP.  So not quite Pedro, but not bad. 

17

16 by Grover Cleveland Alexander in 1916. John Tudor had 10 in 1985. That was the last time someone hit double figure shutouts.

18
Fett42's picture

I can only imagine how much better he would look than even that if it included his pitch values from 1997-2001...

19
bsr's picture

Wow is that curve nasty! And crazy how fast the 91mph fb looks on video after all the Ks on offspeed stuff. Can only imagine how the batters feel...

20

Did not realize Tudor had a streak like that. I looked at it and I think he had a .95 ERA over the best 19-game run.
That is certainly the equal of Felix's run. Maybe the best I've looked at.

21

I remember going, 'where did this guy come from?' sort of like Orel Hershiser's scoreless streak, except Tudor's seemed more out of context.  For a short time there, Tudor seemed like Cliff Lee does now.
Tudor's accomplishment also looks way out of alignment with his K/BB/HR profile.  As I recall he was just sharp as a tack for several months.  It can happen...

22

Bears more investigation.  Thanks Dr. K (not that Dr. K!)
I don't remember Pedro having much of a slider in those years; I'll bet if he did have one, it played up quite a bit due to his other pitches.  But, obviously, his offspeed arsenal is the one to beat.  And it shows in his surreal K:BB profiles.  How do you fan 11, 12 men *while walking 1+*?  He was butchering hitters at will.

23

Had him in the 2nd tier.  Big Mistake ::arnold::
Didn't really give full credit for the arm action.  Check Dr. K's vid link for the throughspeed on the arm and the way the hitters buy in.  The break is obviously impressive but even more so is the way he sells it.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.