Chris Carpenter, to take one example, was injured in 2007-08 and returned in 2009 ready to pitch. Despite being out for two years, he crashed back into the game with an instant 11-3, 2.26 explosion.
Lesson learned? When aces of this caliber are out for a while, they can be good bets -- because they're just flat good pitchers.
It would be one thing, if Jarrod Washburn had shoulder surgery and then you were betting $8M a year on him to pitch well. But Opening Day starters in the Carpenter-Bedard class, return to pitch very well.
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Kelvim Escobar begins to look like a very close value (and risk) comp to Erik Bedard.
If you read the Angels' blogs, they have never been apoplectic with rage at the Angels for being interested in Escobar's healthy performances. Nor have the Angels' fans been interested in throwing back the Angels' division flags that were driven by Esco's high-performance contributions during those years.
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A.J. Burnett missed his #5 season, sputtered during his #6 -- comparable to Bedard's last two -- and then with a few hiccups since, has logged consistent innings. This is yet a third (valuable) durability pattern in the general non-100% mold: he has ducked Escobar's later woes.
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Ben Sheets sputtered, off and on, for three (3) seasons, scaring roto owners who HEDGED THEIR BETS, but then those who picked him up for 2008 snagged a glory 5x5 season from him. Owners of Sheets won far more roto titles (on a % basis) than non-owners of Sheets.
Sheets' FA classification made teams tentative on him for 2009, so he went ahead and had his elbow surgery done and is rehabbing it now. He stands a very good chance of making some team victory-rich in 2010.
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Bret Saberhagen, after he hit age 26, struggled to throw more than about 150 innings a year -- but fired 130, 140 OPS+'s when he was out there.
Typical were his 1998-1999 seasons, when he provided 175 and 120 great innings as the Red Sox' #2 behind Pedro Martinez (the Red Sox' Felix Hernandez).
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Of course, aces who are sputtering with injury can come back to bite you, too, as DiceK, Jason Schmidt, and others have bitten their teams. If you want a game with no luck involved, try chess. Russ Branyan isn't a guarantee, either.
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What happens is that pitchers will get overused, their arms will sputter and choke and finally quit on them .... and then after a year or two off (like Carpenter) or a year or two of 50% usage (like Escobar) they will just wake up one morning and it's healed up.
It is POSSIBLE that Bedard's surgery, and the last two seasons of light usage, have positioned him to roll to two or more seasons of pennant-winning performances. It would be very typical of aces whose arms have given out.
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It is one of the idiosyncrasies of Seattle fans, that we are risk-averse. We lean towards guarantees. This season, for example, we felt friendly towards the predictable-feeling Jarrod Washburn, and hostile towards the elite but unpredictable talent that Bedard offered.
In other cities, they're more acclimated to the fact that nothing's a guarantee. One of those cities is Milwaukee. I'm glad that Capt Jack hails from Ben Sheets' old stomping grounds.
Cheers,
Dr D
I guiess I'm reading between the lines completely differently. My sense is that behind the scenes they've decided they're done with Bedard. No extension, no arb; they will let him walk and turn the page.
I don't have any evidence, only my impression, which could be way off. I just get the sense that Baker has been told as much off the record.
Believe it or not, I also get the sense that they are expecting a non-zero contribution from Carlos Silva in 10.
Ya, if there's a good clue towards that, it's probably Baker's attitude. Good put.
What puzzles me, then, is ... why does Z seem so eager to get Bedard off the field?
Any reason you think they see him as a candidate for 2010?
My impression:
Felix and Snell in ink
Morrow and RRS in erasable ink
French, Silva, Fister, Vargas, Olson, Jaku in pencil (are there more?)
(1) They seem determined to cut as many Bavasi losses as they can (therefore, no Bedard) (that, plus I think they don't figure they can count on him).
(2) Silva is one they have to pay anyway, so they are "talking him up" in the hopes of getting some value and getting him "re-educated" into the "winning culture." Wak quote: "I think he's working extremely hard," Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu said. "I know he cares a lot. It's nice to know he has a handle on this injury."
Whatever ends up happening with Silva the likely 1-4 is a very interesting, young, "on the rise" rotation. Note that Z's 2008 Brewers went to the playoffs with all but 31 starts (Suppan) by guys under 30. Or the 2008 Rays: every start by guys under 30. I think that's what they want.
...though, to me, Wok's quotes are a pat on the back for being a positive factor while playing left out.
Do remember that, this summer, Wok was lobbying for Bedard to not be traded.
of what Jack Z told Art Thiel?
http://www.seattlepi.com/thiel/409133_thiel10.html
I think spending excessive prospects/$s on fragile pitchers is foolish, buying LOW on them is not. Had we gone with your early season reccomendation of $18-20mil per year for 6 years we'd be boned right now.
The ONLY guys I think I can support extending long-term are the Lincecum/Felix/Verlander/Haren types. Guys with track records of staying healthy, great mechanics, no high risk offspeed pitches.
As long as Bedard doesn't have labrum/rotator cuff type shoulder surgery, hes a guy I'd love to buy low on (a one or two year extension at low $).
Z would have to be a fool to lose Bedard for nothing. I gar-on-tee, he will try to get something for him or out of him. It just makes no sense to let a guy with that ability walk.
Nothing in what Z has done so far would lead me to think that he wouldn't try to maximize Bedard's value. Getting him healthy is the first step; and if Bedard doesn't throw before Dec. 1, that probably helps keep him around to where he can become a more liquid or contributing asset.
Even though Baker leaves the door open to the proverbial "incentive-laden deal" (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009650459_erik_bedar...), Stone seems to confirm my suspicion that there is a faction within the org that doesn't trust Bedard, doesn't think he can be counted on and wants to be done with him (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2009657849_bedar...)
My take anyway.
But bear in mind that Stone is tight with USSM, and the agenda there has been clear for two years.
Personally I get the impression that Zduriencik and Wakamatsu both are focused on what a healthy Bedard could do for the Mariners.
Zduriencik's goal isn't 88 wins, an efficient WAR/$ spreadsheet, and hope for the best come September/October -- Zduriencik's goal is to win (active voice, not passive voice) the World Series.
Focusing on October victories, that changes one's attitude about Ferrari pitchers.
My own suspicion is that these guys are exaggerating the internal debate about Bedard. I could be wrong, of course.