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I/O: Cubs want shorter years, higher dollars.
CRUNCH: I love fans. You know I do. But based on the chat threads you see ... fans would prefer 6/$175 to 100/$175.
Tell them that they could get Felix for 5 years, $25M per, and they'll put on their dancing shoes. Tell them that they could get him for 8 years, $20M per, and they'll fret about Felix' $20M being on the docket in 2019. ... the fact that they scored the last three years for $11M each won't register.
Think it through and you'll see that more years, fewer dollars, are to the ballclub's advantage. The clamor to keep the years down is purely an emotional reaction to the image of paying an injured player.
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In MLB, the math is (generally) correct to get more years on your contract. Reading the tweet-leaves, right now the Mariners are up for 8 years, while the Cubs, Nats and Jays are not.
I don't notice that Manny's 8-year deal hurt the Red Sox, that Alex Rodriguez stopped hitting during his 10-year-deal, or that the Tigers are regretting Miguel Cabrera's 8-year deal. Think Net Present Value, friends. Those dollars get cheaper through time.
Here is a great table with the longest sports contracts. 8 is the new 6.
Here are the longest baseball contracts for hitters:
None of those contracts have come back to bite their teams. But then, none of those players are half-baked compromises. They are all HOF'ers. ... it would be one thing if 6 of those 8 contracts looked good. But right now they are 8-for-8.
As good ol' Dr. D tells ya, be sure you are 100% happy with the house you're buying, and then pay a little more than you can afford. Two years on you'll be glad you did.
The blog-o-sphere is talking maybe 6 years for Fielder. Dream on. You're looking at 8 years, and that's fine. If you get him for 7 plus a vesting year, you've won big.
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I/O: Marlins, about to lose out on Pujols, may turn their slimy snake eyes to Prince Fielder.
CRUNCH: This is the scary part.
They've cleared $200M plus for Pujols, and if he walks away, they just shift it from right hand to left and stick it out towards Fielder.
SSI can easily forsee an endgame in which the M's offer 8/$180, the Marlins 8/$195, and then we see which place Fielder finds most "comfortable."
Fielder grew up in Florida, he stays in the NL there, and it's not a big-market team (read: "comfort.")
But Fielder is a people guy. Big time. Zduriencik has acknowledged that he has a relationship with Fielder, the same kind that Pat Gillick had with John Olerud.
Gillick wasn't just friends with Olerud, and it wasn't just that Olerud genuinely trusted Gillick (as Fielder does Zduriencik). No, the big thing was that Gillick knew how to talk to Olerud in a way that was persuasive to Olerud. Gillick made his case, then backed off and gave Olerud space, and sent some compliments through the news outlets. Finally, Gillick having stepped back, Olerud then stepped back forward and was happy in Seattle.
Without a doubt, Zduriencik met with Fielder and showed him the Straw that Stirs the Drink home that he has here. Fielder knows about guys like Smoak, knows he'd come in as team captain and mentor, and would get credit for the success here.
Which is not too much different from Florida.
SSI Handicap:
Gentle reader, we'd like to see your tweak to the above table.
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BY THE NUMBERS DEPT: In the last five years, Prince has already posted OPS+ seasons of 157, 164, and 166, finishing in the top 4 MVP each time.
Miller Park is one of the most neutral parks in the majors. Safeco Field is biased toward Prince Fielder, by a lot. The logical expectation is for Prince Fielder's OPS+ to rise in Safeco.
I don't know what's past 166, but would be interested in finding out.
BABVA,
Dr D
That the Mariners are laser focused on Fielder after Bedard signed with the Pirates for 4.5 million, sans incentives. If the Mariners held back from matching the Pirates, then they must be waiting for 20 mil+ shoe to drop.
He needs what, 1 WAR, or 10 runs saved, to earn that?! And he took one lousy year?
Would have loved to have seen him here for that. Certainly long before I'd have wanted to see Jeff Francis.
But the Mariners went their extra mile with Bedard and SSI throws no crumpled paper cups at their deciding to turn the page. ... I'd of brought 'im back, though.
...is that they just blew another big (unwise) wod of cash on Mark "aging wonder" Buehrle. 4 years and 58 million.
I think they are turning their eyes toward pitching, rather than exclusively toward Fielder. Given that they've already spent 106 million on Reyes and 58 million on Buehrle and 39 million on Bell...one wonders if they will really outbid the Ms at 8/180
I was a tad disappointed about Bedard...would rather have HIM blocking the prospects than some middle-man with a 4-5 K/9...because when he gets hurt, you just call a guy up...no biggie.
But if they need to save their moolah for Princely additions...so be it.
I don't think they have a spare $195 mil in the couch cushions for Prince after that and Reyes (and Heath Bell for that matter).
Heyman says they're still talking to Fielder but I have trouble seeing that working out. Maybe they add CJ Wilson.
When I'm hearing that, and that the Cubs' interest is overblown...
It really DOES look like Fielder could wind up here. I hate it when the rumor mills get my hopes up...
Felix + Pineda + Vargas + Paxton + Hultzen (by year's end) to go with a lineup that includes All Star Ackley, Justin Smoak and Mike Carp (the good versions) all hitting around the lynchpin and world-class bat that is Prince Fielder?
Man, that would be a nice ticket. They're coming to Colorado in Interleague play in May. I'm already looking forward to it, but it could be a delicious surprise. We'll see if Jack can sink that hook and snag his man.
~G
Am a bit confused about the Marlins at this point. And whether Fielder is a 3rd contract for them the way Pujols might be. The latin-fan thing could be a factor.
At the very least, you would think that the Reyes and Buehrle contracts would contain the Marlins' ability to lay out that extra ante on Fielder. Maybe now they're not comfortable trumping a $22M salary with a $25M salary.
Mike Rizzo on MLB network, 6:30 pm EST, asked about Fielder...
He's like, We talked to a number of players, including Prince ... ::dejected:: we think we are real solid at first base, with LaRoche, and Mike Morse is an accomplished first baseman ... we are focused on getting a pitcher for the top of our rotation, yada yada...
Based on Rizzo's obvious defeat on Fielder, and on the Marlins' layout for Reyes and Buehrle, I'm gingerly revising my Wednesday odds to
Mariners 38%
Marlins 30%
Chicago 15%
Field etc 10%
Texas 3%
Toronto 2%
WSN 2%
So,
Reyes for 6 x $17.5 ...
Buehrle for 4 x $14.5 ... and
Bell for 3 x $9M.
By my count that's $40M in yearly salary so far... maybe put a kink in the idea of 10/$220 for Fielder.
Or not.
An Ackley, Fielder, Carp, Smoak murderer's row would be OK, wouldn't it?
Add a LIddi (who I remain very high on) and a Seager and an Ichiro.....That would be OK wouldn't it?