We're going to be a little direct on this one.  If that's not your cup of tea, skip to the next article with our blessings.  :- )

.

Q.  Is it the "correct" evaluation, that in 2010 some other bench player would give you 0.5 or 1.0 more Strat-O-Matic victories than Griffey will?

A.  Of course that's not the "correct" evaluation.

Which player projections are you using?  Use Shandler's and your WAR's and $ for each player will be one thing.  Use PECOTA and the values all change.  Use the Mariners' internal projections and the values all shift again.

......

All players have a range of performance expectation, as PECOTA allows.   Spotted against a certain 50 pitchers, in 250 AB's, Griffey's OPS+ range might be 80-120 OPS+.  Hall's might be 60-135.  Langerhans' might be 95-125.

It's correct to say that 80 is lower than 90.  It's not "correct" to say that a 80-120 range loses to a 95-125 range.  

..............

And note carefully that it's not "incorrect" for a GM to predict that a player will perform at his 75th-percentile PECOTA mark. 

It's completely appropriate -- and part of the job description -- for a GM to point at a player and say, "THAT player will do better than people expect."

Rotisserie players have a feel for this fact.  Picking one player out of a handful of similar players isn't a question of making a "correct" selection.  You make your pick and we find out who's better at player forecasting.  That's what makes a ballgame.

.

Q.  Is it correct to value team chemistry at zero?  After all, no evidence exists that there even is such a thing as team chemistry.  So we have to assume it doesn't.

A.  Billy Martin is exhibit A that state-of-mind can be worth 20 games per season.

If you watched the 2008 Mariners, and the 2009 Mariners, and are still oblivious to the fact that enthusiasm and focused-state-of-mind means W's on the scoreboard ... well, I'd like to help you.  I really would.  :- )  You're beyond the Doc's skill to heal, Frodo.

My considered opinion is that the clubhouse factor can, and often does, mean the difference between last place and contending.

How many times in baseball history has a ballclub switched managers and then had a Cinderella season?   The last time was 2009.  Colorado was 18-28 under Clint Hurdle.  They switched managers and went 74-42 from there.

.............

You think I'm a country hick, tell it to Wakamatsu.  Why does he talk character?  He knows that it means wins.

.

Q.  What do you expect Griff to hit next year?

A.  His bat's slowing down by the day :- ) but in 2009, you were still talking about 85 walks and 25 homers per full season.

EXCUSE 1:  Junior's BABIP in 2009 was ... wait for it ... .220.  That's a pitcher BABIP.

EXCUSE 2:  After the five straight* games in LF in interleague play, Griffey's play went down the commode.   He had a 43/40 EYE in the first half and 20/40 in the second.

Spot Junior for 250-300 AB's against the right pitchers, keep his legs fresh, and sure.  I think he is a good bet to raise the OPS+ from 95 to (say) 110 or even to 119, as in the 2007 season.   2007 he was younger, but we're talking about reproducing a 623-PA season in 250 PA's.

Sure.  You've got walks and homers in Safeco.   The EYE is still real good.  I'd expect Griff to help with the bat in 2010.

.

Q.  Anything else?

A.  Sure.  The fans aren't an inconvenience.  They're the reason the ballclub exists.

.....

Q.  What's the bottom line?

A.   The 2009 Mariners gained an incredible +25 games in the standings, and I believe that if Mike Hargrove had been managing them, they would have gained none.

Or almost none.  You know.

I believe that the +25 absolutely depended on a reversal of the ballclub's lousy 2008 psychology -- that having fun when you play is necessary to winning baseball.

Griffey is part of a crack coaching staff.  He'd be worth a 24th spot even if he were a bad player.

Which he isn't.  The Kid can still hit.

Cheers,

Dr D