The exact moment of breaking the sound barrier, or of breaking 7.0 strikeouts per game, one of the two
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Q. Is this situation fixable?
A. I would be very confident that it is.
Iwakuma has many ways to keep the hitters honest - to prevent them from leaning out over the plate and crushing outside-third pitches. He is capable of doing these things, too.
Jamie Moyer kept hitters honest despite an 87 MPH fastball ... why? Because he would zip a stinging little straight pitch right on the inside corner, hand-high. No leverage there. He could saw off hitters at will, and they absolutely hated it, so would not lean over.
Changing speed is great, but is not enough by itself. That's a nibble-and-pick game, 100 pitches for five innings. There's got to be some reason for the hitter to respect the fastball itself, which will always be 50-65% of the pitches thrown. For everybody.
Vargas, Moyer, etc., do this by moving fastballs around. They actually do hit the jam spot, the outside black at the knees, the letters, all the while missing the big circle in the middle. If a hitter has to guard in, and up, and low-away, and a tease pitch OFF the plate... he won't get good swings.
Iwakuma can do this. He did it in Japan.
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Q. So why doesn't Iwakuma locate all that great?
A. I dunno. Would never pitching have anything to do with lack of sharpness? Could Jason Vargas or Jamie Moyer sit for a month, and then make their games work with no rhythm?
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Q. But Vargas and Moyer have earned respect.
A. And that is part of the explanation for the reason Iwakuma suffers such over-eagerness against him.
He hasn't established himself. ... if a batter saw Jamie Moyer for the first time, he'd laugh at Moyer too. Until Moyer's jam pitch taught him some respect. Same with Iwakuma. Give him a fair chance - next year, in Houston, no doubt - and let Iwakuma roll out a 7-4, 3.50 record for half a year. ... batters will learn that the 90-92 inside pitch, and the Shuuto, are to be respected.
Moyer, Vargas, etc., had uphill battles to establish themselves. Iwakuma's is even more uphill. There's a built-in cynicism about Japanese stars. Guilty until proven innocent.
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Q. Is Iwakuma's fastball really as lifeless as the hitters seem to think?
A. Good possibility that it is, yes.
It seemed real limp to me - like it wasn't as fast as the gun showed. Maybe an Ian Snell situation. Iwakuma's not a big man, and could be his release point and angle take -4 MPH off his fastball. Very possible.
Also his 4-seamer is unpleasantly straight. It's got a 6-inch armside run and 4-inch armside rise, which is the definition of a "straight" fastball that moves normally But Not As Much.
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Q. What's the best general pitch mix for him? Does he have to "learn the MLB game," or is that just kind of baloney they give us?
A. Japanese pitchers DO have to get used to the fact that mistakes are home runs in the American League. Most of them, such as Sasaki and Matsuzaka, go through culture shock. It's more than just not challenging. It's learning how to back the hitters off the plate. Iwakuma's strengths:
- Iwakuma's 90-92 two-seam fastball has excellent bite and sink.
- His Shuuto - in effect an 86 MPH screwball - is a game-breaking weapon. F/X has him at +3.5 runs per 100 pitches on it.
- His forkball, per video, is a strikeout pitch. He never throws it.
- The slider is meh, but can be "shown" if set up with inside fastballs.
- His 70 MPH change curve would be cool, once per inning, if he established respect for the jam pitch.
Give Hisashi Iwakuma some time to learn to pitch Big Boyz inside, and some work so he can get his location sharpened up, and I believe in his chances. So did Billy Beane, who won the bidding for him last year.
His time with the M's was a washout, but it did give him a chance to get his arm right. The guy is a lot better than he's shown. Wrong place, wrong time.
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Q. Is there NO upside scenario for the MARINER fan?
A. Iwakuma is in a Bedard situation, one in which a back-room handshake deal is feasible. Iwakuma's not hitting the free agency jackpot this winter.
Hey, man, you just chill and get it together this next few months, and if we can get some good starts rolling we'll score you a Bedard-type two year incentive deal.
If they were so inclined, the Mariners could spend (a portion) of the last months of their 95-loss season on trying to develop a Kuroda / Darvish resource, rather than spending it on Beavan, Noesi, and Millwood.
Naaaaahhhhh,
Dr D