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Posted by

jemanji

12/9/16

Q. Do the M's have an Addison Russell to trade away for Jake Odorizzi?

A. Don't need one.

We always refer back to the M's deal for Cliff Lee, which required Tyson Gilles, Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez. You could line up many such trades. The sportswriters speak in terms of glamor names, but half of the superstar deals turn out to be for low-minors guys that fans don't recognize.

Just this last week a Times beat writer flatly stated that the M's cannot compete fpr Quintana. He was -- what's the term -- taps chin -- ahhhh, mistaken. If you do something for a living, you should pay attention to things that actually happen. We mean it in a good way.

Other examples, every Billy Beane trade ever done (Tim Hudson et al). It gets time to deal Gio Gonzalez, he wants his choice of 4 players out of A+ and AA ball. Simply amazing that beat writers still think that you need minors names that Soccer Mom knows about.

....

The question tends more towards, Will a GM add in an extra $0.20 out of AA that others won't go. Some deals involve glamor minor league names but many don't. Again and again the beat writers speak in terms of top-10 prospects but Dr. D's answer is very simple: You could look it up. When the M's dealt the Unit away, no Mariners fan had ever HEARD of ANY of the Astros prospects. We as fans are free to shuffle deals around in terms of chits we are familiar with, but that's not what GM's in fact do.

O'Neill, Gohara, Nate KKKarns, Vogelbach and Smith (let us say) would get any player in baseball, but of course Dipoto won't do that. And he shouldn't. Adam Jones was not a top 25-player when we packaged him with Tillman and three scrubs for the SP with the lowest xFIP in baseball. Jones at that time was similar to O'Neill now.

The question is whether any particular GM is going to outbid all other GM's for the player du jour. It sets a bad precedent to be weird with your generosity in trades.

The Pirates seem to have asked about Edwin Diaz + Taijuan (Karns!) + the M's best prospect --- > for Andrew McCutchen, at times having been the best player in the NL, and Dipoto rightfully smiled gently and moved on to the next subject. IQ checks have always been part of the deal-io.

Q. Does Dr. Detecto expect to be able to predict Dipoto moves?

A. Take a breath. Tell me which Dipoto move you saw coming.

Miller for Karns? Link me up baby. To where you mentioned Nate KKKarns as a trade target, prior to the announcement? Thought not.

Kivelhan for King Leonydas?

The Logo for Nate KKKKarns? Did you expect that?

Taijuan for a top-10-MVP NL player that you hadn't seen play on TV? Did you expect that?

Chris Heston?

Like Wishiker said. More fun to just watch, than to try to guess ;- )

Q. What is Dr. D's opinion on Drew Pomeranz?

A. One of the big gambles in the game: he could go 21-7, 3.02 next year or he could continue to 'underperform.' His K/BB/HR mirror Nate KKKarns'. Personally I'd bid more, rather than less. He's a lefty in Safeco, among other things.

Whether you think the M's need a gamble in the #3-4 SP slot is a philosophical question :- )

Q. Juiciest rumor in SSI's eyes?

A. This one keeps coming up, that the M's want to shed Seth Smith's $7M. Ergo: They have a starting pitcher in mind whose salary exceeeeds $7M.

Bet you dollars against donuts that Seth Smith is an ex-Mariner. And, we like the idea that JeDi is set on a TOR.

Q. What do you think about Price and Sale in Fenway?

A. There was once an elite Grandmaster. His quote, "When I am white I win because I am white. When I am black I win because I am Boguljuboff." LOL. The Red Sox will win with righties because of Fenway; they will win on days 1 and 2 because they have Sale and Price.

Wish the M's had a dominating lefty in Safeco ... Geoff Baker once quoted SSI, "I'll give you three Taijuan Walkers for one James Paxton." There were a few moments here and there when this prediction looked shaky, but overall, another SSI win on behalf of clean living.

Heh ...

Paxton being injury-prone ... gag me with a spoon, they used to say. :- ) Sabr research indicates there is no such thing as "injury prone." Too much mileage on your arm, that is a thing. "Need a rabbit's foot" is not a thing, any more than astrology is a thing. Betting on a recurring finger injury is like betting on a one-off 14-7 record from a bad pitcher.

If! Nelson Cruz drops an 80-lb. curl dumbbell on Paxton's foot in March and wipes out Zeus' 2017, and then Paxton is in a taxi crash that wipes out his 2018, people will say that James Paxton is star-crossed and destined for frustration. But I will -- STILL -- draft KPax in the top 10 for 2019. I do not believe in the Roman deity for luck. End of story.

Questions about the M's #2 and #3 starters, that is a thing. Questions about the M's #1 starter, that is not a thing. Any more than questions about Noah Syndergaard is a thing.

....

On other war fronts, park-related fronts, maybe Luis Gohara is a keeper, too. Say he's touching 100 MPH.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Comments

Anthony Desclafani

Dutton floated this name in one of his articles yesterday. RHP in CIN. I've got a list of 15+ pitchers that Dipoto is probably looking at and could be available. Lots of options out there. More than people realize, so I believe he'll land that #3 come January. Still think they'd like a 1B or OFer to soften the blow when Bach, Gamel, and Haniger fail. I would be terrified of that. A team looking for its championship run doesn't run all three of these guys out there. Too much risk.

I'd like to see that list

of 15+. I do agree that someone else will be acquired.

Fallbacks for the youth now include Valencia, Heredia, Motter, Shaffer, O'Neill, etc. and whatever trade market is present at that time. Dipoto moved quickly for similar in season needs when the team wasn't so much in the hunt last year. Hopefully the hunt this year will be both earlier and later than it was in '16.

I've always noticed that there are many great players that play for something within their first few years. This could be chicken, egg, era, confirmation bias or other. I mean Griffey and Edgar weren't playing for .500 for almost 5 years, so it's not like it's required. Getting postseason experience early with players who you hope to have for 6+ years may not really affect anything. Did it help Alex, or make no difference? You tell me. But the egg is that many teams playing for championships have a couple or more on their rosters. A very long list of them have been a part of the reason why they are there.

Focusing on the possibility of failure is a recipe for failure if it's your endeavor. It's a reason for depth to be created in this situation, but that has been done. Going into the season I'll be more focused on the hope that some combination of good possibilities will cover all those positions. Even Seager panned out amid a horrible run of development. Shouldn't we wait to see how the era under Dipoto, McKay and Servais is developmentally before assuming it'll be bad?

Not about my Pessimism

I think what we're seeing is Dipoto's uncompleted plan-which leaves him anxious. He's dropped us some clues. Gamel was always in the plan for LF, but Haniger and Vogelbach are not his Plan A. That's why we've seen such heavy links to Napoli and McCutchen and others for those positions. Segura probably doesn't fill the gap, but the market for outfielders may not be to his liking at the moment, and he's willing to take a risk because the cost of plan A outweighs the risk. Regarding the pitching-no mystery here. Here's a list of guys that have either been reported as available, been rumored to be on the block, or could otherwise make sense for the team trading them away and for the M's:

Robbie Ray, ARI

Patrick Corbin, ARI

Shelby Miller, ARI

Zach Greinke, ARI

Michael Pineda, NYY

Chris Archer, TBR

Drew Smyly, TBR

Jake Odorizzi, TBR

Alex Cobb, TBR

Jose Quintana, CHW

Zach Davies, MIL (Haven't heard anything about it, but MIL may listen as they rebuild)

Junior Guerra, MIL( Same as above)

Ervin Santana, MIN

Sonny Gray, OAK

Gio Gonzalez, WAS

Matt Shoemaker, LAA

Mike Leake, STL

Scott Kazmir, LAD

Danny Duffy, KCR

Ian Kennedy, KCR

Drew Pomeranz, BOS

Collin McHugh, HOU

Mike Fiers, HOU

Jerad Eickhoff, PHI (Not sure if he's available. Maybe for the right price.)

Anthony Desclafani, CIN

There's a "hit" in there somewhere, if not on this list, then elsewhere. This list just shows that there are options.

From weekend reading

The first thing that I want to mention is an assertion from John Trupin on LL Mailbag. The question is very pertinent, so I'll just paste it all...

SeattleChops, LL: Do you think Dipoto has a tendency to talk up players when he's considering them for the trade block? Not that he’s traded every player he’s praised, but it seems like it was only yesterday he was talking about how the team believed in Marte.

JT: *glances in Ben Gamel’s direction* I think you could say that."

Dipoto hasn't said much about Heredia this offseason. Could be very coincidental. I'm not sold on Gamel personally so I liked the joke. Would love to be wrong, of course.

Dipoto is also saying interesting things about Haniger. Loosely comparing him to Cole Calhoun although in the context he could as easily have pointed at Seager. Also from LL, SmoakontheWater's "Dipoto's LL Christmas gift", claims that Dipoto sees Haniger as batting 2nd. Uhm. It makes some sense eventually at least. His MiL line is almost identical OBP to Segura, (.370ish) with more power and less BA. So Walker and Marte net the #1 and #2 in the lineup? And an arm for the pile. If this works out at all like that sounds early in the season. Just wow. I can imagine a couple .340 OBP powering a ridiculous overall offense. I was still thinking they should acquire what it sounds like Dipoto sees Haniger as, an OB machine with a plus glove for the OF.

LHSP a problem?

1.Segura RH (very slight reverse splits)

2.Haniger RH

3.Cano

4.Cruz RH

5.Seager

6.Valencia RH (Just noticed he got a 1b vs Felix, in his MLB debut. 1 of 5 hits for the Twins that day)

7.Zunino RH

8.Heredia (or WHOEVER but he's RH)

9.Martin RH

So I'm good with the lineup, bench, depth everywhere and the bullpen. Once we get what Miley was supposed to be.

Belief in your own misfortune?

That's a thing I would certainly hope McKay, etc. would be working out of all those young men. But the ability to sabotage yourself in thought is within anyone's grasp. Let's just assume that's not going to be at play here.

The acquisitions haven't all been exactly what we wanted and more (just Segura/Haniger), but we're looking at having:

1)Solid OF defense attained most days at all spots.

2)A 2-5 in the order that should be the envy of much of the league. Segura #2/#1, whichever leaves that spot at the top I won't be as certain of. Watch 'Bach get in at 2 and simply OBP .360 or some such and then we're talking 1-5. There's a few guys that "could" stabilize that spot.

3)The bullpen has been lengthened even if the costly lefty brought in was not of the ilk we were hoping. Worth remembering, the depth mostly came from AA last year. It can be improved as the season goes along but there isn't a big need there anymore.

4)The rotation depth has been built up. This is the minimum that seemed necessary, kind of like getting a leadoff hitter but no #2. We could find what we need among what we have. The depth is not as strong due to Walker being replaced by someone with a lower ceiling.

I still have sights set on a mid rotation arm or better and a leadoff/#2 hitter for the OF. But, honestly, breaking camp with this roster would be very good. Much better than last year. And there's still 66 days until pitchers and catchers report.

"O'Neill, Gohara, Nate

"O'Neill, Gohara, Nate KKKarns, Vogelbach and Smith (let us say) would get any player in baseball"

I just don't agree Doc. I seriously doubt the White Sox would have taken that for Sale. I'm not even sure they would take that for Quintana. You could try to call up the Angels and offer that for Mike Trout if you want to give em a nice laugh for the holidays.

As far as the Cliff Lee deal, that was widely considered a rediculous steal and we haven't seen a trade offer that light for a high-end Ace since. Adam Jones was a top 10 OVERALL prospect at the time of the deal. He was a MAJOR chip. O'Neill is getting majorilly overhyped as far trade value is concerned.

You also have to consider the market. Proven high-end SP is extremely expensive right now.

100%

I'm with you, man. I think they will wind up with a Wade Miley level guy. Fister, Brett Anderson, somebody like that. The market is just too extreme. Too few options and too much money.

Yeah, I agree. Its a tough

Yeah, I agree. Its a tough spot to be in. We need a TOR badly and it is the the worst market to be shopping for one.

Hopefully we can land a young MOR starter with upside..just bite the bullet and deal the specs. This is our contention window.

Dipoto seems to be

doing everything he can to fill the roster with 26 year olds who have upside. I've said before that doing basically that can extend the window. Now he's being quoted as saying things along the lines of "keeping the window open". He's attempting to build in replacements for the MOTO and top of the order to grow into their abilities before our core fades. At the same time fans are crying out for him to trade Gohara, Neidert and anyone else who could soon infuse youth to the TOR for a guy with solid Mid-rotation stability. I don't like it. I'm with Dipoto. Keep the window open.