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It warms Dr. D's heart to see that the beat writers are flailing wildly down the home stretch to keep up with SSI's wisdom. Here, in Big Bad Bob's article on Jose Bautista, he acknowledges the inevitable:
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... Here’s the necessary disclaimer: There’s been little, if any, indication from the Mariners that they are interested in such a move. No whispers last week at the Winter Meetings near Washington, D.C. Nothing.
But Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore once said the trades and free-agent signings that actually happen are usually the ones you don’t hear about until the last minute. So who knows? ...
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:: BASKS ::
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Okay then. Analysis.
(1) :: taps chin :: --- > Having more great players is good, not bad. You would prefer to have a random great player, rather than a carefully-configured-to-roster bad player. Thank you. We'll be here allllll week.
(2) More analysis: Nelson Cruz has made you absolutely NUMB to batted balls that scatter the popcorn vendors in the upper deck. Don't be lulled into believing that TWO Nelson Cruzes would be redundant. If the 2017 Mariners added an Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista to THIS lineup then we would send a limo to make sure that David Price and Chris Sale make it to the ballpark.
(3) Final analysis: sure, Jose Bautista could be hurt, or old, or whatever. It ain't my money. You draft Ben Gamel next roto league, I'll draft Bautista, and we'll go from there.
Enjoy,
Dr D
Bautista's BABIP over the last 5 seasons has been .215-.259-.287-.237-.255. Vs LHP it has been totally weird: .179-.213-.345-.235-.214.
He's feast (over the fence) or famine when he hits the ball.
ISO vs. LHP has been .212-.293-.284-.209-.224
Given that algebra confounded me in high school, it's no surprise that I can't elevate to your level of thinking here.
-- I normally recoil at all comparisons between football and baseball, so I'm being hypocritical. But Bautista smacks of a classic Pete Carroll move. PC's idea: spend as much money as we can on my killer defense, and since i've got Russell Wilson, what difference does it make if my receivers and offensive line are dog food? I'll win! Well, not so much anymore. Bautista is the equivalent of spending cold cash for one more former all-pro linebacker...while Russell continues to run for his life.
--"Ain't my money". Well, sure, so why not just open the floodgates for everyone? The reason is: "it ain't my money"--it's theirs. And after ponying up $660 million less than a year ago, does doing your Xmas shopping only at Tiffany's make sense? Well, if they're in, it's fine with me. But the guess here is that JD is operating within limits that keep him outside the Tiffany door.
Plus, if Steamer has Bautista at 2.8 WAR and Quintana at 4.1, wouldn't it make more sense to spend the prospects now on Quintana...and then save the $100m-$150m that Bautista wants to pay for what you find out you really need later on?
I don't know...obviously there's something I'm not seeing in this.
Right. In an "infinite payroll" scenario, all kinds of things can make sense.
Divish says the 2017 payroll will end up at around $160m, including their usual "reserve" for mid season acquisitions and contract escalators. Base slaries are at ~140m now. There isn't much room left for acquisitions. If they want an SP, RP and OF they are going to have to trade for cost-controllable guys or play the bottom of the market.
I like Bautista's fit for a couple reasons.
1) Bautista was still a stud on the road last season, but bad at home. BABIP was bad at home. Turf catching up to him? Hits into shift on turf? I don't know, but I think there's more to the story.
2) Having Bautista in LF frees us up to send Tyler O'neill in a trade package for Quintana.
Bautista+Quintana and laugh our way to the playoffs without any expensive long term commitments.
Bautista is probably looking at 2/ $35million + a vesting option with his depressed market.
Combine that with Quintana's peanuts for pay and both moves fit within the budget.
...but he does still stalk pitches well and take a ton of walks...
Unfortunately, his defense is toast at this point so it's hard to justify going in that direction if you're trying to fix the outfield D.
He may be a flyball guy, but he had a .284 BABIP in road games, .221 in Toronto. That's what makes me think there was something with the turf.. Balls got to defenders gloves quicker, he runs slower on turf, who knows..
I guess, like the Orioles fans, I don't really like Bautista. And he might be the kinda guy that would disrupt what has become an outstanding clubhouse led by Cano, Cruz, Felix, and Seager. Another Super-Duper Star competing for attention? I am still of the opinion that one of the reasons Cano left NY was that he wanted to be the leader on his "own" team. And that has been the case.
Ryan Braun is younger, has a defined contract that is reasonable from a performance point of view, plays the right position (LF) at least passably well (Fielding Bible rates him #8 LF in MLB with the 2nd best arm), and, except for the PED stuff - which is bygone, it seems - a fairly quiet competitor and teammate, unlike the fiery Joey Bats. In fact, one comment I've heard about him is that for a star, he is very reserved and NOT a leader.
IFF you're going out to get one more big bat, I'd rather they trade for Braun. The Brewers are rebuilding big-time; give them some combination of DJ, some well-regarded prospect arms, a lower-priced LF like Smith or Heredia, a well-regarded prospect infielder like Torres or Jackson, and Marlette, and see if they'll put a bit of offset money in the pot.
If you end up with a OF of Braun-Martin-Haniger, with Gamel as your 4th, you have a lineup to cause heartburn in any LH in the league, and, since Braun's career OPS v. RH is .872, Cano-Seager-Braun-Vogelbach would be no picnic for RH, either.
Incidentally, since Aoki left, #8 IS available.
Then go sign Tyson Ross.
I like the immigration paperwork on E. Encarnacion far better than Joey Bats.
Mr. E's demands for a 4 year have shrunk to 3 years.
And his ransom seems to have diminished somewhat.
Remember, in mid-November, this was one of the 3 hottest names in F/A, some had him number one.
And now those proclaimations seem just number done.
You want to platoon him with Mr. Volkswagen at first?
(I want to put Mr. Volks in a trade package for a starting pitcher).
If Mr. Boreass recalls his blown strategy with holding K. Morales out for more, more, more a couple years back, maybe he could cede the thought that his reputation will suffer more than his client should efforts to get things done remain on simmer.
Two years ago I would have been all over a Joey Bats deal with the M's.
E. Encarnacion makes more sense now.
He doesn't strike out often, I hope the M's don't strike out on him .... AFTER, OF COURSE ... they get a #3 (with upside) SP.
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The way his contract is structured would make for a simple deal. $4M of his pay is deferred for 2017, for example, making his current pay $15M. Out of the $72 still owed him (not counting a $4M buyout of a 2021 $15M option), $18M is deferred. The deferred money is then paid (no interest) from 2022 to 2031 (nice pension!).
Anyway, since Milwaukee has already budgeted the deferred money, just trade for his undeferred contract, which would pay $15M - $15M - $15M - $13M - and then either $12M or the $4M buyout.
For his production and the ages involved (37 the year of the buyout - Cruz's age), this would be a sweet deal - the Brewers cut their budget drastically, but still have some money due in the future, while the Ms get production at a discount to the current market.
It was well-known after Cano came to the Ms that he preferred to bat 3rd, although with the Yankees he mainly batted 2nd. Braun has batted #3 his whole career. I wonder if Robbie would mind going back to #2 with Braun on the team.
A lineup of: Segura SS R - Cano 2B L - Braun LF R - Cruz DH R - Seager 3B L - Haniger RF R - Vogelbach 1B L - Zunino C R - Martin CF L would be pretty nice and balanced (especially since Braun hits RH well), with Gamel L, Valencia R, Ruiz R, and O'Malley S on the bench to move the split one way or the other as desired.
I'm liking this idea a lot. As long as Robbie is OK with it. I think that is the key to any add.
You've added plenty of options. If Cruz and Cano are fading you could go:
Segura
'Bach
Braun
Seager
Or even looking to 2019 with other youth up top. Hopefully there's no issues with Cruz or Cano for awhile but we won't be seeing Jeoffrey Leonard or Jose Vidro hitting cleanup anytime soon either way.
The other big consideration is whether the Ms need pitching more or that final veteran piece in the lineup to allow Haniger, Gamel, and Vogelbach to come up to speed more gently, and keep pressure off Zunino.
With the pitchers on the way (esp. Povse and Moore) signing somebody on a short-term "make-good" contract makes more sense to me than trying to compete in this market for a Quintana, unless the White Sox indicate that a package from the Ms led by O'Neill (still worried about his Ks) and Gohara (still a ways away) would be competitive. The same would go for Drew Smyly and the Rays.
I know the main-stream opinion is that Felix has declined and is not likely to ever be the King of yore. And while it is prudent to hedge for the possibility, I'm with Shannon Drayer, that people are underestimating Felix's pride and work ethic. Perhaps like Zunino and Walker he needed a jolt to get him to change some things, but I'm VERY optimistic he'll dominate in the WBC and come roaring into the season with something to prove.
Does this mean I think that getting a #2 starter is not a worthwhile effort?
I'm not in favor of trading Kyle Lewis because I believe he may be Griffey-level special. Paxton and Diaz and Haniger are keys to the current chances for contention. Just about anyone else of the Ms prospects I might feel bad about losing, but wouldn't worry about. Can the Ms get a top-flight guy with those limitations? In my mind, no. The Ms would be better off improving the lineup and then selling Tyson Ross on the chance to prove he's back while playing for a winner.
Thoughts of a dry brain in a snowy season.
with the bat being also infusion atop the lineup. The idea of Braun is really good in my estimation. Him moving Cano to 2nd makes the lineup RLRRL, him coming in to hit 2nd makes it RRLRL so I don't think moving Cano to 2nd is necessary. Braun coming in to hit 2nd (Career .294/.354/.518 VSR) makes a ton of sense. A Cruz fade wouldn't hurt as much with what I estimate is a Edgar-lite (if only I could find spray charts for Edgar to compare) that can also run some. The RH in Safeco problem didn't exist when Edgar was running a career. 326 BABIP there in his late 30's by going oppo. often when that's the pitches he got. That is exactly what Braun does. If I'm right with all that, who better to be his hitting coach into his mid 30s and transition to AL/Safeco than our very own?
I'm not a big fan of trading what little we've got to be more secure today in the rotation when there's already so much talent there. Ross is also my favorite option if a #1 or 2 hitter is where most of the resources go which is what I'd prefer.
Haniger may be that exact type of bat at #2 eventually, then Braun is hitting behind Seager unless he needs to replace Cruz in the middle. It gives Haniger a softer landing at 6th to start out, if you believe in that kind of thing.
If you want to edit these comments into a main article, feel free.
There's this: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/12/17/13993024/an-open-letter-to-tyso...
and this: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/12/15/13973752/drew-smyly-decent-trad...
The first is fun, but has some analysis, even if it is on clubhouse fit. The second is one of the better analyses I've seen of Smyly.
And this is good, as well: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/12/13/13943124/25th-man-smackdown-the...
...for suggesing Mr. Borras, not Paul Kinzer, represented him.
Give up draft pick #11 for EE (with a 3 year conract).
But, still, a starter, who might become a #1 or #2 in another year, remains the first priority.
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