Rumors this week have the M's as one of three or four finalists for Sheets. Seismo's out of Fort Brougham are that they're, um, trying to get the $$ worked out.
Which is, of course, one reason that the M's play the budget cards so close to the vest: so that, when sitting at the green felt with agents, they can represent their hand as only bearing a red chip or two.
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Q. How much IS Sheets worth for 2010?
A. If it's 5x5 roto and you have all roster slots filled but one, and you have $4 left in your budget, he's worth $4.
If you have one slot left on your roster, and Sheets is the best player available, and you have $201 left in your budget, he's worth $201.
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We 'net rats persist in analyzing the finances in a vacuum, without considering context. If it's a national fantasy game, one of those where you get $50M per weekend to field an NFL team, and you freely re-pick half your team each week, then sure. It's as simple as bang-for-the-buck on each player, in a vacuum. But! We can't analyze MLB rosters that way. It's too simplistic.
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Now suppose you're playing $260 roto against 11 competitors ... and there's a special rule. My team can have an extra $10 any time it wants.
Whhhaaaaaat?!? How many times?
As many times as I want. If I want to pull the bonus $10 twenty times, I can do that. (Like the Mariners can simply raise their payroll if they so choose.)
OK, now how much is Ben Sheets worth? If you can just change your $260 budget to $290 if you feel like it, and Oakland and LA can't?
You see the problem?
..........
That's why all y'all hope that the M's get Sheets for $6m but pass on him for $8m. I just hope they sign him, period. The above, is why.
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Q. How much extra could the Mariners pull, if they wanted?
A. Who knows. There was just an ESPN spot saying that the Phillies were at $138M, or something, for 15 players. Accurate or not, the M's could do that too.
So you're a fan of my BABVA roto team, and I can pull an extra $10 or $100 over my $260 any time I want.
NOW do you hope I buy Sheets?
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Q. What's he worth, in $260 roto?
A. Shandler has him worth $10, based on a lackluster performance in 115 innings.
Sheets represents (in simplified terms) a coin flip: useless, or the Cy Young winner.
What's that worth to your roto team? Well, if the M's take Sheets and he has the 10k, 1bb season -- then in a tough league, whichever team drafted Sheets 8th round wins the pennant, simple as that, pretty much.
What's it worth? 50-50 (or 40-60, or 30-70) chance to simply call the league off and you get the $3,000 as champ?
That's why roto owners draft Sheets high (or pay a lot for him on draft day). You can afford the $10 or the 8th-round-pick hit, in view of the astronomical payoff.
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Q. So you're rooting for the M's to land him?
A. Of course, as with Harden or Bedard. Whichever one of those guys has the big year, 40% (y'know) of the teams drafting him will win their roto leagues.
Don't underestimate the value of a guy like that, if he hits the jackpot.
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Q. Is your sense that he will pan out?
A. The real teams' interest in him, post-workout, is awfully lame.
Sheets, when right, is a virtual Pedro Martinez. Three gamebreaker pitches, all thrown with surgical precision. Which is why the career K/BB leaderboard looks like this.
In the cold, wet air of January, he looks like $8m with incentives. But if he's throwing well in April, he'll be more fun than Felix or Lee. He'll be worth $1m per start.
The A's would be spending their measly payroll on him from weakness, as a desperate gamble to save their season. The M's would be buying Sheets from strength, as a 1-in-3 dice roll to take over the league.
Cheers,
Dr D
Sheets to A's for 8 mill.
The AL West just got a little more interesting. My take on this is that Sheets wanted to be the alpha dog, as he was with the Crew. He will definately get more press as the A's #1SP, on a team without any other stars. Shrewd move.
Will now be interesting to find out what kind of Plan B/C/D Z has. Harangutan!
Trading for Harang would be, at best, a minor upgrade in the short term...the dude's sky SKY high LD% and HR rates say it all.
If Sheets comes through for them, that's huge. It would cancel Cliff Lee in that event (vis-a-vis the A's and M's).
And is diametrically opposed to mine. If Harang 'stinks' going forward he'll be a trophy call for yer.
Harang is the quintessential Billy Beane pitcher: doesn't necessarily have Harden-level talent, but does have good stuff with tremendous control and craftsmanship.
Pitchers have up and down years.
You have 5 starters who are at least #2 starter types(Braden,Cahill,Anderson,Duscherer and Sheets). Throw in a chance that gio gonzalez could suddenly figure out the majors and geez the A's will have scary pitching. Their bullpen is already solidified as well and their offence is filling with AAAA MVP's(Kouzmanoff,Mcpherson,Carter,Desme[maybe god tells him to play baseball again]). Throw in a good mix of OBP veterans and wow A's have every position covered. I mean seriously what else do they need to sign at this point?. Their team really is a pennies on the dollar WS contender.
But in the real world...we call that a BAD thing for an offense. Ryan Sweeney is not a starter. Neither is Coco Crisp and neither is Rajai Davis (his high BA last year was a complete stone cold fluke). Kevin Kouzmanoff was easy to acquire for a reason...he sucked in San Diego. Their shortstop options are all banjo hitters. McPherson is a complete MLB failure..swing is too long and there are too many holes in it. Their best hitters right now are still Kurt Suzuki and Jack Cust...and that's really freakin' sad.
They have a nice rotation but there is a lot of youth and a lot of injury risk in it...there's no guarantee they are going to get the kind of huge production you're picturing. Justin Dushershershsresershershreherhsershr has been hurt about a billion times in the last three years. So has Sheets. Anderson has talent but is pretty inconsistent still. Braden is, at best, a #4...not a #2.
Look...they're going to have an OK team this year, but let's not go bananas making them into goliath. Not when all their hitters look like David.