I'll take Carter Capps over a coupla M's, Right. Now.

 .............

Before you read this, you should probably read that.  Will help you keep your nerves under control.  For this, not that.

Do we get a second draw at the 2006 sensation that Mark Lowe created?  Hit & Run sez,

Just saw two today who fit the bill [for fixing the bullpen].  Well I didn't see them. I listened to the spring training game and watched it on game day. Carter Capps was regularly throwing 98 and got a couple up to 99. He got a swinging strike on a change up and threw at least one curve. He was throwing strikes with both his FB and change. Among his two strike outs in three batters was righty killer Will Venable (who has USS Mariner stamp of approval). Hate to waste him in the bullpen but if you did break him in there he could give you multiple innings and he could soon be a closer candidate.

I hate to differ with G Money but Capps is my pick of non big three starters. Some time this year we may be talking about him being their equal (IMHO).

Stephan Prior threw 95 - 97. Didn't have quite the control that Capps had but like Capps got two strike outs in his one inning of work.

Lonnie's been pitching me on Carter Capps for quite awhile.  Never even looked at him before, but Lonnie's got YouTube videos on Capps and Snow.  Here's one of them and here's another from Mathis21.  Both are just a coupla weeks ago.  Lonnie, you da MAN!

..........

You guys remember the year that Mark Lowe was "just throwing the stuffing out of the ball" in AA, and they simply called him up and put him in the 8th inning?  Could be the same deal here.

You could call this a max-effort delivery, I think:

.

Funny stuff.  Carter Capps' delivery has many things in common with Jeff Nelson's:

  • Kicks the leg up jerkily, sticks it straight back down, causing a "bounce" up and down
  • Sweeps the front foot into home plate lowwww and farrrrr and smooth ...
  • ... causing nice acceleration of the CG
  • Uses the "inverted W"
  • Quiet backstroke, head nice and still as he loads, but then ...
  • ... sticks butt out, steps on 3B side, and tilts spine way over to 3B
  • Max-effort acceleration using 90% upper body
  • Finishes with a TREMENDOUS nose-to-leather and dissipates energy smoothly

Thusly:

n summer 2010, pitched 10 innings in the minors, called up to the ChiSox only weeks after being drafted, and was very effective in 2011.  10 strikeouts per nine innings, 3.5 walks, 71 innings for the White Sox last year.  Am sure there are plenty of others.  There is no reason not to go to Carter Capps in Safeco, if he can throw strikes.

..........

There are a few 98-mph relievers in organized baseball, who sport 24:1 command ratios.  Can anybody name one who is worse than what the M's currently have?

No.  It ain't April Fool's.  It's a round ball and a round bat, and at 99 mph, lessee Texas hit it square. 

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

1
Rick M's picture

Last season we had a great time with our SSI AL only fantasy league. I wanted to let readers and those pining for more action/revenge that, as I suggested at the end of last season, I am indeed starting up an AL only keeper auction league this year. I am inviting readers and last year participants to join us. It will be Sat. April 14 in our conference room in Mountlake Terrace. Hope to do it completely live and in person, but if we have to skype a few in, it could be arranged.
If interested, drop me a line at rick@dwdev.com. Love to have you join us.
Now, back to the Capps discussion.

2

Hey Doc,
I looked for the dreaded upside down W in Capps but really didn't see much of it. I tried to stop and start as much as I could, but I could never really catch a shot with his right elbow that high. Can you capture a moment in his delivery and highlight that? The shot you've captured, above, really doesn't show much of an invert, IMHO.
I like the leg slide, as it may be quite deceptive. I love his arm slot. I don't know what he throws, besides gas, but I would imagine he has a flattish curve with lots of gloveside break (is that what I'm seeing in the play-by-play) and a cutter/slider/something #3 with lots of movement.
But what I thought was interesting (and you quasi-mentioned it, too) was that he had a semi-El Tiante/Felix turn-away from the plate. I would accentuate that, I think. A little more turn, and with that Nelson slide, you would have a great deal of motion......and then the guy at the plate would still have to pick up a 98 MPH heater. You would have to look at back then leg then glove THEN find a Ryan Express-type fastball. Yikes!
Uh...no thanks, were I the guy at the plate.
And as for the maximum effort finish, well it didn't seem to negatively impact a Gibson or Bunning. It'll do.
Snow is just classically smooth. Looks like a guy just playing catch.
But Capps can get out MLB guys right now. If he handled Venable he will have no problem getting out most RH hitting guys. Holy snot, how many guys touch 98 right now? It's not like guys see a bunch of FB's like that. Heck, a bit of wildness might not hurt Capps.
Can he throw gas two days in a row? If so, he's a guy who could easily pitch 70-80 innings for the M's this year. Nelson did that. Is that more valuable than the 140 he'll pitch as a starter in he minors? And working him from the pen this year doesn't mean he's always going to be a pen guy.
I think your experiment might just work.
You didn't mention that in his "Thermonuclear" Cape Cod innings, Capps gave up exactly 1 earned run. 0.39 ERA, if you're counting.
The M's are loaded with young arms. We are WAY short of current bullpen arms. Let the supply meet the demand.
moe

3
hit and run's picture

Moe that was just a great post! claps claps . . . I just want a Liriano situation here if I can have my cake and eat it too. As high as I am on the big three, the statistics bear out that you can never have enough (starting) pitching. Pineda's situation right now should remind us of this. Even Wilhelmsen, is he really a failed starter before we make him a reliever?

4

With his control, he needs to be encouraged to throw tight -- since he's a college pitcher, he may not yet be sharp doing it. But again, calling on my ancient history, a reputation like Drysdale's or "Sal the Barber" Maglie might be enough to go from potential to proof very quickly. Somebody else said it (EDIT: mojician) but I heartily agree -- we need young studs in the pen like Ramirez, Snow, Capps, Pryor, Moran, et al who get a rep for for no quarter given (how's that for a Mariner slogan). Then the team will start approaching the 90-win level with the hitting and starters we have or have coming.

5

Certainly set-up. He's a monster. And because I'm not a huge fan of his motion for 100+ pitches I wonder whether they'll make that adjustment sooner or later. I have them doing it later, especially since we have a lot of options that are closer to the bigs. Pryor is the same type of guy and he's already had his season-long adjustment.
But if we wanted to take a guy or two from the low minors, stuff them in the pen and see if they can't be in the bigs ASAP, then I'd pick Capps and Carson Smith to do that.
I'd love to give Maurer another chance to start before bullpenning him, because his motion isn't as bullpen-leaning as those of Capps and Smith.
Like I said, our 2013 pen does not concern me at all. I just wonder if all the spit and baling wire can hold the 2012 pen together until all these arms get up here.
~G

6
Lonnie of MC's picture

...for some of the other kids to get their moment in the spotlight, Capps would probably be the reliever with the highest upside, but he is far from the only talent chugging it's way up through the system.
You got a look at Stephen Pryor last night and what he is able to do, but here's a handful of names to keep in mind:
Tyler Burgoon
In 2011 Burgoon was the primary closer for the Clinton LumberKings in the Low-A Midwest League. With the 'Kings Burgoon worked 62.2 innings giving up 7.6 hits per 9 innings (H/9), 2.2 BB/9, and 9.5 K/9. Burgoon brings good heat and some wicked breaking stuff.
Carson Smith
Smith was taken by the Mariners in the 8th round of the 2011 draft out of Texas State where he was the 2-time Southland Conference (NCAA Division I) pitcher of the year. Smith has good heat on his fastball (97+ MPH) and movement. His pitching motion is maybe the most funky of any pitcher in the Mariners system and has to be seen to be believed. I cannot believe that I don't have any video on him...
Matthew Bischoff
Bisch worked out of the pen all of 2011 for 52.1 innings and struckout guys out at a rate of 11.9/9 innings pitched and walked them at a rate of 2.24/9 innings.
The most intriguing arm in 2012 might be attached to Steven Hensley, who if put into the bullpen could get his fastball well up into the upper 90's.
There are more names, and some haven't even been drafted yet ;)
Lonnie

7

Capps' Cape Cod days were the summer he was drafted. After signing, he then went to the Midwest League, where he fanned 21 in 18 innings, although there he allowed 12 runs also. He was the Paxton of the 2011 draft - much better than his draft position based on what he was doing on Cape Cod.
Hensley's performance in the Arizona Fall League, especially when Snow, Moran, and Hultzen did so well, makes me think he's going to be a little slower to the show.

8
Lonnie of MC's picture

... I have oodles of pictures of Capps and others from my ST visit and I have yet to post them anywhere. Included is some frame by frame stuff of Capps pitching the ball and they look pretty good. If anyone wants I'll post them up at Mariner Central in the minor league side of the board for anyone to view.
Lonnie

11

Morrow was hardly a bust. 107 OPS in his first year, 127 in his second.

12
Lonnie of MC's picture

Rosy just mentioned that Morrow was unable to make the jump to a MLB 25 man roster in April after being drafted in the prior draft. There wasn't even a hint him being a bust.

14
Compass Rosy's picture

I was pointing out that Morrow is an example of player being drafted in June and inserted into a major league pen the following April....
And, while I would not describe Morrow's M's tenure as a 'bust' - it was hardly a resounding success either - be it in the 'pen or the ro'. I felt at the time he was being rushed and would have benefited from at least a couple of months on the farm. He didn't get that, and the yo-yo began ...from Tacoma to Seattle, from pen to starter and back again. Consistency was clearly an issue - likely with both the way he was handled AND the way he handled himself.

15

Can't believe nobody thought of Brandon Morrow.
.........
Maybe he was rushed, ya.  
.... Jack Zduriencik and his crew would certainly tell you that Morrow's main problem was temperament, and personally would agree with that.  Zduriencik's staff has been very clear about their disdain for Brandon Morrow's competitive makeup.  In this case I'm wit' dem.
In any case, good call Rosy.  That is what a Carter Capps promotion would be.  It would be a Brandon Morrow, Chris Sale timeline.  Whether that is a good thing is another subject.

17

Edit: OK....got it.
I've always felt the Morrow deal was more with the way the M's used/demoted/promoted him and not with any talent deficit.
He had the ability to get MLB batters out, right away.
Capps too, it appears.
Maybe Capps' future is as a starter, but a question to ask is would he benefit more from the MLB experience than the AA deal?
Doc has mentioned the Earl Weaver process and how he first used future starters in the pen. Well, Hank Bauer did it in Baltiimore before Weaver. In '65, Jim Palmer (all of 19 years of age and with 129 innings of A-ball behind him) got his first call-up to the Orioles. They would win 94 games that year (finishing third). Palmer threw 92 innings in 27 games, 6 as a starter. He was useful on a really good team. The next year he had 30 appearances, all starts, and threw 208 innings.
I know that Palmer/Bauer/'65 is ancient history but it can be seen as a template here.
If Capps can help this team this year by being pen guy, then that should be where/how he is used. Lord knows, we look like we need a reliable BP arm or two.
Spot start him if you have to....and if his future is as a starter. But in the present he is more valuable to the team and to his future by going the bullpen route.
moe

18
Lonnie of MC's picture

..., for a lot of the kids that get drafted the first one to two years is needful to acclimate a young player to the pro game and lifestyle. Capps may be physically ready to deal with MLB batters, but he might just need a bit more time to learn how to be a pro. This has little to do with maturity level.
Here's a funny thing to think about. A lot of these kids who come into the pro scene from top NCAA Division I schools take a big step down in lifestyle once they go pro. While in college they get to stay at the best hotels, eat and some of the best restaurants, and travel in style. The first few months of professional baseball is a huge culture shock to a lot of these kids.

20
Compass Rosy's picture

Never really thought of that "step down" thing but, could very well be true. I'll ask my nephew, who has lived through the experience - from the UW to the Mets farm, no less. Apparently, it took some toll on him, as he went from ballplayer to law enforcement - he's now a cop on the mean streets of Kirkland ;-)

21

Today's game seemed pretty routine for him. The Generals were losing (only their 2nd game of the year) so he came on in the 8th to get his work in.
He struck out the side on 9 pitches. Yeesh.
In three appearances, he's got 9 Ks against no walks in 5.2 IP, no runs. He keeps this up and I don't see him staying in the minors past the All Star break. Dude's arm is tough to ignore.
We have a lot of those guys in Jackson...
Though I do want to know why Taijuan Walker didn't start today (Yoervis Medina got hit early and often in his stead).
~G

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