=== Angels Seen Wandering Drunk On I-5 ===

Jason at Prospect Insider says that the Mariners are "adamant" about signing either John Lackey or Rich Harden.

In free-agent parlance, that would mean that the M's have made strong offers to both, and it's a question of which one responds first -- if either do, of course.

Jack Wilson said, on the radio, that the M's landed him because their first offer was very close to what he thought he'd get in free agency anyway.

Same thing with Figgins.  The M's pushed a big stack into the pot and they pushed it in early.

If Churchill's right about his Twitter, and I'm sure he is, then the M's have big money out there on Lackey and Harden, both of them, as we speak.

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=== Bird In the Hand Dept. ===

As you know, between the two, I'll take Lackey.  That gives us SP1 and SP1A for thirty starts each (famous last words).

Obviously, Harden is about 9,000 times sexier.  But I'll give you two reasons that -- given the choice -- Lackey is the clear choice over Harden:

1) Stars & Scrubs.  Lackey 210 IP and Saunders/Field vs Harden 0-125 IP and (say) Granderson.

2) The First Six Rounds Principle.

Mikey Jay doesn't beat you in a roto league because his first six picks are a little better than yours.  He beats you because at the end of the year, his six picks have stayed on the field, and two of yours didn't.

I'm not conservative by nature, but I do take healthy players in rounds 1-6 -- usually bats.  Taking Rich Harden in round 5 is too reckless even for me.

When you're talking megastars, reliability dwarfs every other concern.  It's one reason that Felix and Ichiro are underrated.

..............

But it's a little bit like arguing whether OBP or SLG is more important:  the biggest difference in baseball is between safe and out.

The biggest difference in a Red Sox series is between meatball SP and megastar SP.  I'll take either one.

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=== Thought For the Day ===

In the comments, we kicked around the idea, is Figgins worth more to the M's, since they double-down on their improvement vis-a-vis LAA?

I s'pose, and that 5th-year vest to Chone will definitely tip you off as to Capt Jack's answer to that question.

So.  If 5 years to Figgins, how much do you suppose the M's offer Lackey, to gutkick the Angels?

Cheers,

Dr D