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=== Chicks Dig the Long Ball, Dept. ===
I/O: Mojo sez in this comment, that Zduriencik likes the "balance for the offense" that will be coming through the Kendrys Morales pay station. He points out 28 one-run losses in 2012, a potential influence on Jesus Montero, and the third-order impact of having dangerous (HR-hitting) hitters.
CRUNCH: Without a doubt, the first thing the Mariners need is GOOD hitters. Of any kind. Nick Swisher would help. Barry Bonds, even today, would help. Mike Hargrove 1972 would help. We all get that. A 6-run-per-27-outs hitter is what he is.
That said, sabermetrics has a huge blind spot, and that is the issue of "What CAUSES a team's players to have good seasons by their own standards?" None of us can use math to solve that question -- and yet it's a question that Jack Zduriencik has to address. Helping a ballplayer hit well is important, and we sabermigos are of zero use in that realm.
Zduriencik and Wedge appropriately and necessarily use their judgment, their intuition, to address this. Wedge hit the young Justin Smoak sixth and he did great for a while; he moved him to third and the spiral down started. Wedge's experience with batting-order slots doesn't give baseball fans as much as we'd like, analytically speaking, but it's all we've got.
When it comes to the question of, "What's the best way to help Ackley and Montero jell?", experience and judgment are the best tools available.
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How many Jack Zdurienciks, Pat Gillicks, Tony Larussas, and ... Geoff Bakers around baseball believe in the concept of a Paul Konerko? How many of them believe in the concept of a "lineup legitimizer", and how many of them say, "Ahhh, it doesn't make any difference. Hitting isn't contagious. It's you against the pitcher."
Lemme put it this way. Grant for one second the premise that lineup legitimizers ARE a factor in baseball. Now ask yourself where the 2010-12 Mariners have been with respect to this factor. The degree of their lack in this department is astounding. In terms of lineup legitimizing, their ERA is 8.25 recently; they're an expansion ballclub. So they've added a Jason Vargas to an 8.25 ERA pitching staff, have they? The first time the Seattle Mariners had a legitimate starting pitcher - Floyd Bannister? - it was kind of a big deal.
SSI is a big believer in Jesus Montero, and the fact that Kendrys Morales speaks his language (sort of) don't hurt none.
SSI is a big believer in the idea that a ringing RBI double can kick a Colby Lewis out of his rocking chair.
SSI is a big believer in the idea that if you blow off conventional ideas about batting orders, and just go with a bunch of WAR-efficient players like Endy Chavez and Casey Kotchman, that you're going to learn all about the concept of Critical Mass (and 513 runs a season).
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Is Kendrys Morales a lineup legitimizer? I've got my doubts. He's hurt a lot, he's kind of funky-looking, his work ethic is dubious, and Cuban isn't an easy language to understand. Further, he's a dead man walkin' as far as Safeco is concerned. He's very possibly gone in July, for Drew Smyly no doubt. :- )
K'Mo would look a lot better hitting 5 than 4; add a second 100-RBI man and now we very definitely do have a maypole for the kids to dance ribbons around. But give us six or seven April home runs, dude, and we'll call it square.