But I feel like I should have written more details on these guys if it was gonna be its own thing. *laughs*
Look: we're REALLY deep. Brandon Maurer profiles as Gil Meche with better control, IMO, and he's being beaten out by three or four other arms. Maybe that's a homer view - I've loved Maurer for a while and think he could be a wonderful #3 if he stays healthy (as Meche would be in a rotation headlined by Felix) but there's a lot more talent than we had 4 or 5 years ago.
A sustainable pipeline has been built. We just need some more of the promoted (or soon-to-be-promoted) to live up to their talent. Assuming Montero/Ackley/Zunino/whoever start putting bodies on base and runs on the board and the arms are what we think they are, we'll be good to go for a while. We've got a raft of talent in the upper minors and plenty of guys simmering now on the lower levels.
Of course, if Jack can't figure out how to assemble a winning roster it's gonna be the next GM who's gonna be thrilled with all those homegrown possibilities.
~G
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=== Ji-Man Choi ===
Ji-Man Choi has not been healthy. It’s like losing Snelling’s early years, because all the kid has done everywhere is hit, albeit in brief spurts. He’s strictly a 1B/DH now (no catching with a broken back) but the 2 year detour in his development is the Ms fault, not his. Of course, it’s hard to get 1B hype unless you were really highly drafted; the bar is set pretty high in performance for those who weren’t.
Just keep in mind that after only a season’s worth of at-bats, a very raw 21 year old Choi has a .325/.430/.485 line, without much in the way of homeruns. Assuming he goes to High Desert this year he’ll still be under-rated, because of course he’s gonna hit in High Desert. Just remember to keep an eye on him: if you cut off MWL performances at 60+ games, he’s first in OBP, and 5th in OPS.
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=== Timmy Lopes ===
Rookie league stats aren’t useless… but they’re certainly filled with noise. That said, any time you hit 13 triples in 50 games, you’ve probably got some speed and ability to put the bat on the ball. Timmy Lopes is really interesting. I think a couple of our other teens will wind up in Everett this year, but Lopes might start in the Midwest League at second base. He didn’t turn 18 til after the draft – dude’s a baby.
With no HR power in his swing that makes him a Chone Figgins/Joey Cora type, but, uh… Figgins had pretty huge leadoff value for quite a while, no? I don’t think his swing mechanics are gonna lead to him getting too many more HRs with age, either – but I didn’t think Jimmy Rollins would, and he was very valuable even before his increased power. I like Lopes a lot. We’ll see how he does in full-season ball.
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=== Leon Landry, Julio Morban ===
Landry and Morban are basically copies of each other, except one guy was an IFA and one went to college here in the states (LSU, big baseball school). Both played in High Desert so either could succumb to post-partum stat depression upon leaving.
As center fielders, though, they have a ways they could fall and still be quality hitters for their position. I get why they’re not higher on the list (nobody wants to get caught by the flood of failed hitters once they depart the desert) but Morban has always had one of the sweetest swings (health is his real issue).
Mistrust of Landry is Landry’s own fault. He did poorly in the MWL the previous season. Adam Jones failed in the MWL too – a lot of people do. Morban and Landry are two to watch in 2013 for sure, because if either can keep hitting in AA… look out.
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=== Others ===
We just have a lot of players with huge upside potential. Kivlehan is old, but I don’t care. Brian Jordan got in his first full big-league season at age 28 with a similar history (defensive back in college, etc). The difference is Jordan played baseball his whole college career. Kivlehan only just picked up a bat again after a 4 year layoff and won the Big East POY in college, then the NWL POY as well. He led the league in OPS.
His upside is a complete unknown – there’s no ceiling. Maybe he can’t hit a breaking ball, and he’ll completely faceplant at higher levels, like some of our foreign free-swingers. Or he could be an absolute terror once he gets some reps. Right now he’s doing everything with pure natural talent.
..............
Gohara and Diaz are live arms with basically zero experience as well. Either could be the next Campos to shoot up the charts, while Pike is more of a Hultzen-as-a-teen type with 3 pitches and a nasty breaker to go with his polished approach. I do like Pike quite a bit - but what's not to like about a polished lefty with a nasty curve and good change who can touch low-90s with his heat, accurately?
................
DeCarlo was drafted very high for a raw kid from the Northeast, but was compared favorably with first round talent from warmer weather states (Daniel Robertson comes to mind).
Robertson is rated as the #10 prospect for the As, and a B-. Both play third base, both posted essentially the same line, with Robertson getting a 100 AB promotion to short-season A and faceplanting. Is Robertson better? Can’t say yet – as I said, rookie ball lines are very unreliable and DeCarlo skipped many of the national showcases that would have gotten him better pre-draft publicity. DeCarlo showed he was willing to take a walk and had some power.
That’s enough for now; if he’s worse than Robertson a) it isn’t by much at this point and b) certainly not several hundred prospect slots worse.
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=== 30,000 Feet ===
It’s just a very volatile low-minors situation. I don’t blame Sickels for wanting more data before plucking names out of the hat for the next batch of B prospects in our system, but it sure looks like the train’s continuing. We’ll see next year which of these guys bounces up. I expect many of them to rise to the occasion. Zduriencik picks seem to have that way about em…
~G
Comments
Yeh, for a front-pager I'd usually think in terms of getting some lipstick and eye shadow on it. I guess you'll just have to console yourself that your sticky notes are the feature articles on lesser websites...
I took a look at Lopes the last time I was fishing for an adopt-a-player over at MC.
My concern was this. He had 13 triples ... zero HRs ... and bats right-handed. That doesn't scream to me speed and pop ... that screams at me ... he's going opposite field a LOT in the low minors. He actually has 11 doubles and 13 triples for his minors career. Yeah, he's only 18 ... so I get the allure.
I opted for the old (ish) - (21 year old) Dario Pizzano instead of Lopes ... but I'm certainly no minors expert, (my other AAPs are Romero, Maurer and Moran).
That ain't too shabby for a barely-18 year old kid. I agree he's going the other way a lot, but that's part of what I like about him: a willingness to use all fields. He's a spray batter with a pretty good eye so far, which is all I want from a middle infielder. Trust me, he doesn't have pop, not in a HR sense, and his LD% has to go up, but early on he's a good looking professional hitter.
He's not Michael Garciaparra, which is the important part. Whether he'll put together a Joey Cora career obviously remains to be seen.
I love PIzzano's eye, but he was also in rookie ball, except after a full college career instead of being just out of high school, and he plays a corner instead of up the middle. He's gotta find some pop in that short frame of his to go with that eye, since he also had 23 extra base hits. I hope he does.
~G
Adam Jones:
Age 18, MWL: .267/.314/.404/.717, 124K/33BB in 559 PAs
Age 19, Cal: .295/.374/.494/.868, 64K/29BB in 315 PAs
Julio Morban:
Age 19, MWL: .256/.315/.382/.697, 99K/26BB in 336 PAs
Age 20, Cal: .313/.361/.550/.911, 67K/21BB in 330 PAs
The year after Jones did that he was the #64 prospect in the land. He had more ABs and a higher profile thanks to his #1 pick status than does Morban, but I’m telling you, don’t sleep on Julio. He’s only behind Jones in age and experience thanks to injury.
Adam got HBP a lot, upping his OBP, but they have basically the same batting profile. Julio’s a lefty, however, which gives him an edge that Adam didn’t have. I'd take Adam's 3 WAR seasons from Morban starting in 2015 or so and call it a day for sure.
Hitters age 20 or under in the Cal League with a .850+ OPS since 2006 (Jones, our Wlad, Daric Barton and Billy Butler did it in 2005):
2006: Reid Brignac, SS – what Morban’s failed path might look like
2006: Cargo, OF – hanging in there against ML pitching
2007: Kyle Blanks, 1B – top 50 prospect, TJ injury issues
2007: Michael Saunders, OF – he’s doing all right
2008: Hank Conger, C - 2x top 100 BA prospect, arm issues.
2008: Yamaico Navarro, SS/3B – traded to 3 diff orgs
2008: Lars Anderson, 1B – 3x top 100 BA prospect, failing corner power
2009: Alex Liddi, 3B – lots of power, iffy glove, tweener
2009: Tyson Gillies, CF – cocaine bust + injury, posted .820 OPS in AA this year.
2010: Jaff Decker, LF – #13 Padres prospect (B- Sickels), recent injuries.
2011: Edinson Rincon, 3B/LF – #24 Padres prospect (C+), bad glove.
Morban plays CF pretty well, not some sloppy corner. The guy he comps to is Jones, or if you prefer a lefty then Cargo. Seriously, look out - it's a hard thing to do as a CF.
Other guys who did it in 2012, and where they place:
Joc Pederson, OF - #3 Dodgers prospect (B, borderline B+)
Domingo Santana, OF - #10 Astros prospect (B-)
Chris Owings, SS - #9 Padres prospect, (B-), bad plate approach
All those guys finished in the pack around Morban on the offensive charts in the Cal League. Morban will get his chance to prove he should have been ranked higher when he hits AA this year. Let's hope he does - and that he stays healthy. Health is really the thing slowing his ascent, not talent or performance.
~G
Plenty of good seats still available!
We were discussing his minors HR's the other day, and of course he was an off-field guy.
Jus' sayin' :- )
Jim you da man :- )
Tim Lopes, at High Desert for a coupla at-bats at the end of the season plus BP and fielding:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TG4nOWgbNpQ
He's got quick hands, a nice stroke, and very little leg drive. Awesome slap liners for doubles and I love how he stands in the box, but not the kind of stroke that opens up for HR power.
That said, he's got plenty of batspeed and could always drive more with the legs or use a lil more back to get more oomph. And yes, Jeter was a triples guy all the way in the minors.
Still, is someone complaining about a 30 2B/ 10 3B/10 HR second baseman who can walk and hit for decent average? That makes him Eddie Collins, right? :D
Seriously, though, Eric Young had a very solid career. Not the worst template in the world.
~G
My issue is handedness.
For a lefty bat to hit triples he MUST pull the ball a lot. THAT signifies a quick bat.
For a righty bat to hit triples, he MUST slap the ball the other way a lot. THAT can be interpreted as "spraying" the ball ... but it can also be interpreted as being late ... a lot.
My concern is that he has a quick bat ... that is constantly late. If he's late against rookie league pitching ... if THAT is what is driving his triples totals ... then when he faces tougher pitchers, he starts fouling off pitches that used to be triples ... and starts missing pitches that used to be fouls. In that scenario, he becomes just one of a thousand good hitting low minors guys who flame out as the competition gets a little tougher.
I'm not saying that is what he IS. I don't know. I'm saying that is what his stats suggest he COULD be.
Against the weakest pro competition he will ever face, a ton of triples by a RH batter makes me wary that he ALREADY is hitting at his highest level.
Honestly, if he were left-handed, I'd probably be all over him. But, I have long rolled my eyes at the use of triples as a measure of speed while IGNORING the handedness of the batters. Triples are disproportionately hit by left hand bats - because they are pulling shots down the 1B line. Pulling down the line is a sign of being out in front of pitches - screaming exceptional pitch recognition and bat speed - but only if you hit lefty.
again, a la Jeter.
Interesting 'put. Wonder whether Lopes is late, or whether he's hitting inside-out. His EYE ratio, 0.80 as a teenager, is certainly encouraging.
What sticks out to me about Lopes is that he's 5'11" 180 (B-R.com) and he's young. There's still time to develop power. I would hope that with professional strength training and professional hitting coaches that he could develop enough power to play the middle infield.
He's got great wrists. I love talking about ballplayers like they're horses. ;-) "tremendous gait, find hindquarters, little thin through the legs..."
Trust me, I won't complain if he comes up with power as he ages. Even without it I find him very interesting.
~G
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