Growing up a Dodger fan, I saw a lot of Nomo as a kid, and in '95 when he came over, he would regularly light up the gun at 94, 95, probably averaging 92 with his fastball. Checking fangraphs, yep, his fastball was averaging 87 in '02, and the dropped to 85 over the next 2 seasons. I don't know exactly when he started losing velocity, my guess (memory fades) is probably in '99 when he developed a major home run problem that wouldn't go dissipate until he returned to the NL. Not to say that he wasn't still quite good except for the gopheritis (his K/9 never dropped below 8.2 until 2002), but the arm did certainly crumble, culminating when, after stumbling through his last 5 starts, he was left off the Dodgers playoff roster in 2003. Jim Tracy relatively famously said 'He just doesn't have any bullets left in his gun'.
That isn't to say that the twist isn't great, it may have added years to Nomo's career, and the same can be said of Bedard, who's fastball was 92 5 years ago with Baltimore is down to 89 with Pittsburgh where he is still performing at premium levels (it's hard to connect his 4.6 ERA with his 8.6/9 K Rate and reasonable BB and HR/9 Rates). I think it's less likely to protect the arm so much as add a level of deception that allows for a weaker primary pitch.
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Neophyte axs,
I'm not anything approaching a baseball analyst. Just a fan who likes
reading about the game. I'm always fascinated by your in-depth analyses of
the mechanics of pitching and hitting.
Which brings me to my question:
While watching Iwakuma's last great outing, it struck me that his windup
could be rather easily modified to include the Felix Twist. Given what this
additional rotation has done for both Felix and Vargas, I'm wondering if it
would make Iwakuma even more deceptive and add a little to his fastball?
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My knee-jerk response was going to be that a classic Nippon windup is a tough match with the, um, Bedard Twist. Not to quibble, 'cause it's aptly called a Felix Twist for us, but for those (present neophytes excluded) who just joined us, Felix adapted his motion to poach the goodness that was in Bedard's rob-o-tronic windup. Then Vargas became a 3rd-generation Erikkkk disciple. (Erikkkk has made all 22 starts this year and is fanning 8.6 men per nine, same as Clayton Kershaw, thanks for axing.)
Nippon windups emphasize a connection of the shoulders and CG with the center fielder in a driveline vector, a la DrMikeMarshall.com -- Erik Bedard's motion emphasizes centrifugal motion, like a merry-go-round, or like a golf swing. Both can work, but it is epic complexity to do both at the same time. You know who the guy was who did both: Hideo Nomo. Here's a great video.
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So in the abstract, I'd normally have said it's asking a lot to talk about a Nippon pitcher using a twist. The number of moving vectors just multiply exponentially.
But pausing to take a look at Iwakuma-san's specific delivery, it's a different story. Here's a video. By Nippon standards, Iwakuma's motion is extremely simple, and it already incorporates the usual NPB element of "pause at the top" (go with scratch golfer Moe for a detail explanation of the benefits here).
Iwakuma's CG balance is obviously very graceful, and he could easily tuck the front shoulder and show the batters his number if he were so inclined. I'd even propose that this could temper the "whirlybird" circle that he makes with his pitching arm, which raises his back elbow above his shoulder to give the "inverted W" stress.
Also: the Nomo (Bedard) twist seems to promote a high knee kick. Bedard kicks high; Felix and Vargas seem to kick energetically with the twist. No idea why. Maybe the upper body itself helps pull the knee back. Iwakuma has a high knee, a drop-and-drive, and this is one more thing that makes you believe that the motion would suit Iwakuma nicely.
Iwakuma is in his 30's now, so you might say it's tough to change at this point, but Felix and Vargas were wayyyyy into their careers when they changed. Baseball is about adjustments. Veterans are supposed to be better at adjustments than rookies are. I'd love to know how the Bedard Twist might help Iwakuma. He seems to be an absolutely ideal candidate.
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Hideo Nomo was unusually durable under the circumstances - he made 28-33 starts in every season, 1995-2003, after coming to the majors from the Japanese "use 'em while you can" factory. Let me read that sentence again. Done with his career in Japan, Nomo came over here and still ripped off nine straight full seasons in an MLB rotation.
The combination of the Bedard Twist, and the Nippon lean-back, seemed to take a lot of load off Nomo's arm. The deception it added didn't stink, either. By the time he let an offspeed pitch go, the hitters screwed themselves into the ground. Iwakuma's shuuto is getting him 2.67 runs per 100. What's 2.67 come out to, cubed?
"Neophyte" indeed,
Dr D
Comments
Valid point Mal. And didn't know you rode the Little Blue Bicycle. We Big Red Machine fans can sympathize!
Wow, didn't expect such a thorough write up. I guess it was the combination of the smoothness, balance and grace of his windup that I was seeing without really realizing it. Thanks for helping my powers of observation.