Matt Harvey: interesting roll of the dice?
Supposedly can be had for 'impact relief arm.'

So The Amazins are apparently willing to deal Matt Harvey for 'an impact reliever' which, your guess is as good as mine what that means.  Here's what we know about Matt Harvey:

First round draft pick (#7 overall) in 2010, exploded onto the scene in 2012 with 10 starts of sparkly 2.73 ERA pitching.  Followed up in 2013 with 178 innings of 2.27 ERA in 2013 (good for 6.5 FanGraphs WAR) and followed THAT up with 189 innings of 2.71 ERA ball his next season...the caveat being that 'next season' was in 2015, since he missed all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery.

In 2016, his ERA ballooned up to 4.71 over 92 2/3 innings, but his peripherals suggested that was mostly bad luck (3.47 FIP, 4.11 xFIP).  There was legitimate cause for concern, however, since his fastball velocity was falling from 96.6 in 2015 (first year back after surgery) to 95.4 in 2016, and slipped even further to 94.3 last year.  And last year is where things really went off the rails for him.

With super-strong career K/9 and BB/9 rates of 8.70 and 2.44, 2017 saw those respective numbers crater to 6.54 and 4.56.  His ERA was an atrocious 6.70, and his FIP and xFIP were 6.37 and 5.39.  So it was clear that this go-round it wasn't all, or even mostly, a simple case of bad luck.

Still, you don't often get the chance to acquire 28 year old, club-controlled SP's with Cy Young-caliber seasons under their belts AND better-than-average fastballs for a single reliever.

He's no savior, that's for sure.  But as another roll of the dice at an Iwakuma-type bounceback, what does the mainframe think of Harvey's prospects as a longshot reclamation project for the back of the rotation?

Comments

1

...sure I'd consider taking a shot.  This is not a situation where I let Diaz go though.  If I wanted that kind of trade I'd trade releiver Diaz for potential starter Diaz....

5

"Our pitching is probably a little deeper than most are giving it credit for being. The addition of a household name is probably not forthcoming. But we do intend to add to our pitching staff, whether it be in the 'pen or the rotation."

I don't like the sounds of this........

6

told you.

Gonna be Wei-Yin Chen or some other draw at a #4 innings eater and then maybe another mediocre but dependable middle reliever.

7

This team NEEDS another TOR arm if they want any reasonable chance to compete.  Barring a perfect storm of bounce-backs+healthy seasons by injury-proners, the current roster (as constructed) is not a serious contender in a playoff series with the Big Dawgs of the league.

8

He said that before Otani made his decision.

9

Personally don't see a path to legit contention that doesn't involve a second legit TOR arm slotted beside Paxton.  That doesn't mean there *isn't* one, but I certainly can't see any others.

Paxton + Darvish makes this team a force to be reckoned with in a short series.  The offense, assuming no one implodes and people stay reasonably healthy, is good enough to carry them to the WC and pick up the odd playoff game in spite of a bad start.  They could be legitimate contenders, if only just, by adding a TOR arm like Archer or Darvish.

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