.
Q. Big winner in the new park?
A. Just going off the overlay, we start with an indisputable 4 outs turned into homers: the double-red dot in LF, the one down the LF line, and the one up against the fence in CF. There was a 5th ball tonight that hit the wall; that one was a double.
The overlay has two hits that convert to homers - the one to straightaway LF and the one deep to CF.
There are three more deep outs, where it's tough to say whether they'd have been off the fence or over it. But counting Tuesday's double, the overlay gives 7 homers.
.
Q. Leaving him where?
A. Here were his 2012 splits, going in to Tuesday:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | |
| Safeco | .228 | .283 | .386 | 8 |
| Road | .262 | .324 | .469 | 11 |
Convert four outs and three doubles into homers, and his SLG goes to .466 at home. That's just based on the overlay.
.
Q. What do you mean, just based on the overlay.
A. Up to here, you're just treating the hitters as though they are those automatic golf-club-swinging machines. You're calculating results exactly as if the players were metal spring machines thwacking balls off into the night.
They aren't. Give a rat a morphine-laced pellet when he presses a bar, and he'll press it again.
In 2012, the Mariners hitters beat pitchers fair and square, worked a count, socked a screaming 400-footer and ... they were out. You have got to take into consideration the issue of classical conditioning. Human beings are mammals.
The Mariners' original press release said that "based on interviews with players" they decided to change the fences. Yeah, like Adrian Beltre told everybody in the league that if you go to Seattle you ought to have your head examined. As the M's amended press release emphasizes, the old park warped hitters for the worse. This is precisely the factor that had Dr. D so angry with the old dimensions: the fact that right hand hitters had their careers torpedoe'd here.
.
Q. This will affect Saunders particularly?
A. Remember that his thing is that he needs to direct his "ki" up the middle? No hitter in Seattle, even the right handed ones, will be more rewarded to CF and LF. Saunders has a unique ability to hit hard fly balls to all fields (usually such a hitter gets ground balls to the pull field). The new park will condition Saunders to keep hitting the fly balls hard to all fields. His particular swing benefits.
Saunders was a CF with a 110 OPS+ this year. With the new fences it would have been 125.
Next year he's age 26 with experience, the famous John Benson roto sticky note for your monitor on draft day. Saunders already had a major career spike lurking; the PX, the improving EYE, the improving CT% ... Shandler will definitely have him in that category, possible spike, big UP scenario.
If the M's hadn't settled on a center fielder before, they sure better have now.
.
My garage band made me sing the CCR shtick and twenty years on, I cringe.... what stunk then stinks now, as somebody told John McClane... ;- ) Rubber Band Man, though, I could listen that 20 times in a row on the iPod while running the Safeco stairs, if there was a Safeco Stairs day...
Projects to 25 homers amigo?! He had 27 this year with the new fences... I think you got the first digit wrong on the scorecard... what do you expect from a golfer...
What happens with Carp next season? If the M's really are in the market for another OF, Carp is out in the cold. Wouldn't mind seeing him stick around and get him in there for whoever gets hurt first, Guti (OF) or Smoak.
Carp is my sleeper among the M's current position players, especially after the stadium modifications. It's time to give up on the illusion of him developing into an acceptable Major League LF, and just plug him in at 1B or DH and be happy with the .850 OPS at a league minimum salary. He's been a poor defensive LF by just about every possible measure, and more importantly it's not hard to imagine the fielding struggles being what derailed him offensively.
Jaso catching, Smoak at 1B, Carp at DH... Montero playing everyday by taking AB's at all three.
Hadn't settled is a big phrase. I'm still pretty convinced that the M's plan to start '13 with Guti in center and Saunders in LF.
Wedge and Z love Guti. Every 2-hit game he has makes me cringe, to some degree, as I think it just cements in their mind the value they see in him.
But I'm with you, and have been for a long time. Saunders is the man for the job.
Before Saunders became the ugly Saunders, I thought he was a pure platoon .250 hitting 20-22 homerun hitting guy. And that was purely playing against RHP.
Now the Rubber Band Man (Remember that song, Doc. I always think of the Championship Blazers team when I hear that. I think they played that song whenever Robin Jones, as backup center, would come into the game) has the skills and the ki to whack lefties, too. He's beating the ball to all fields, as well. Used to be a classic Yankee stadium type of lefty.
He's graceful in center, now projects to 25+ taters AND another 35 doubles, and is durable. Man, just pen him in.
"Look at me, I can be Centerfield!" John Fogerty
Are those two musical references one too many?
Coming into 2012 both Shandler and Dr. D saw these two players as berrry, berrrrry similar hitters.... Trumbo had a 25:120 EYE in 2011, but it was not based on an inability to tell a ball from a strike. Trumbo was going to be age 26 with experience, had a very similar PX, is a similar athlete, stiff mechanical runner, etc etc. Right down to the golf-style lower-back issues due to the over-torqued swings.
Trumbo stayed healthy, Carp didn't...
Trumbo this year 32 jacks, 95 RBI, a healthy .268 AVG and about a .500 SLG ... all while running a laughable EYE of 36:153 and Dr. D does not expect this leading indicator to cause any regression in Trumbo's specific case...
Give Mike Carp 550 AB's and you can plan on the same 32 HR, 95 RBI ... Trumbo's a bit bigger and stronger but then again, Carp has the platoon advantage. ... of course, make them a targeted 400-450 AB's and you might get a 135 OPS+ rather than Trumbo's 126...
Drayer reports that they will not use Jaso and Montero exclusively at catcher, meaning they will bring in a stopgap (apparently not likely to be Olivo) third catcher until Zunino arrives.
Of course, 3 C + Smoak + Carp + Carp's OF days apparently over = 5 guys for 3 lineup spots.
I don't think either Smoak or Carp would draw close to their true value in a trade, but it also seems kind of unlikely that they'll both be on the 25-man roster if one spot has to go to a "real catcher" type (and, eventually, Zunino -- so it won't be just a "they insist on 3rd C" issue once he arrives).