So here we are again, at that time of eternal hope while we're under .500 and praying for a miracle on the big league club - or at least a team that can be competent for 4 months. 

But the draft is here!  The draft will bring us The Future, which has to be better than The Present because The Present is full of Annoying Capitalized Things as well as Rage, Precious, So Much Rage.

And to that end, here's my personal breakdown on the Ms first two days of the draft.  Most of this is re-posted shouts, so if you were following along today there won't be a lot of new stuff here.  This is mostly for posterity, and the workers of the world.  Think of the children, and the proletariat!

Draft Picks:

1) Enjoy Cruz's home runs!  They're deeeee-lightful, and light on calories.

2)  Nick Neidert, 6'1 180, prep RHP. I actually didn't expect Neidert to get to us. He's got that "small for a pitcher" complaint because he's only 6'1 but the kid already throws up to 96, sitting in the low-90s, with nasty-if-somewhat-wild breaking stuff and a surprising good offspeed game for his age. Basically he's an Upside: Sonny Gray / Downside: Danny Farquhar type. What's not to like?

To put it another way: Neidert plus 2 inches is in the Chris Archer mold. I'm happy to see what he's got. Raw arm that throws up to 97 as a teen, despite his height. Doesn't quite have his motion 100% repeatable yet, but he's still messing around with the way he pitches. His curveball is NASTY with a lot of bite, but it's a 2-8 curve, which gets it a slurve name even with that sharpness to it. He extends a lot rather than releasing high, which makes the ball come out of his ear hole visually and might give him the deception that a lot of short guys can't get. 

I'm serious, I didn't think Neidert would get to us. I thought he'd go in the 40s, easily. Must've been the tendonitis. He LIKES to spin the ball, and seems to play with making the curve tighter and turning it into a slider, or making it a more sweeping offering with late bite. He can throw a changeup that's better than what Moore had until this year. Nick's raw and needs refinement, but he's REALLY interesting. I don't like taking pitchers with a top-10 pick due to the Hultzen Effect, but when you're trying to get serious impact in a relatively thin draft and don't pick til 60, then taking a stab at a high-upside prep arm is a good way to find some.

The knocks on Neidert are height (he's 6-plus, but especially with that release point I can understand some of those concerns) and weight (too skinny to hold up, which is DEFINITELY holding back guys like Chris Archer). I'm not always a fan of teens who throw 95+ already, but his height doesn't concern me.  Neidert's armspeed is really good, and it's not like he has muscle to muscle it up that fast, so he's not putting extra stresses on the rest of his body.  It's a risk we had to take with the state of our pitching, so I have no complaints.  This is what we did with Taijuan Walker, a basketball player who had barely started pitching, and that's working out. I was a fan of Bauer over Hultzen, with the idea that impact is more important than height.  That's a lesson Lincecum should have taught us, and I for one will hold to it.

Feeling about the pick: hot

2s) Andrew Moore, 5'11, 185, Junior RHP.  A little early for me (though he did say he'd sign for slightly under slot) but we're looking at short guys who get it done apparently. Moore is a pure pitcher. His velo for a righty is passable but not scary in any way (88-91 basically). He just pitches his butt off. It's really impressive, especially how nasty he can be at that velo.

As for Moore's velocity, which has been talked up of late: Moore did not sit 92-94 all season. He might have for the game McNamara watched, and I'm glad he's still finding some velo, but I watched a couple of games with him and he wasn't sitting anywhere near 94. Maybe it was the radar gun. His stuff is definitely deceptive when he's got his offspeed stuff working though. Guys have NO idea what he's throwing. It's kinda beautiful. 

Moore has great leadership skills, tremendous control, and the ability to actually PITCH. If he can throw 91-92 consistently, that would be great. He has a higher release point than you'd think for his size because of the tilt he gets when he throws, and it confuses batters. When you watch college hitters, they might as well be pinata-swinging blindfolded up there, pure guessing on both pitch and location. Hopefully that holds true with wood.

At his size he'll NEED that changeup to be pro-plus and not just college-plus, but I like him. Andrew is a workout warrior (helping him increase and maintain his velo), he finally learned that change this year, throws four pitches, logs everything like Jamie Moyer, and is immensely dedicated to the craft of pitching. If that's not something to love, I dunno what is. It seems like a lot of folks feel like this is a floor pick, and it might be - we need some starters in the minors and right now we're about out.  But pitchers jump plateaus, they don't round into shape like hitters. 3 years ago Moore was throwing 83 as a "power" arm using only hard stuff.  Now his changeup might be his best pitch (only picked it up by being on Team USA last summer, so he's a quick study) and he's found another 8-10 MPH on his stuff.  I wanna see where he is 3 years from now. You don't have to throw hard to be great. Let's see if he can be great.

Feeling: very warm.

3) Braden Bishop, 6'1, 190, Junior RH CF.  Ugh. Bishop is basically a duplicate pick to Austin Cousino from last year. Also a college CF, also a guy who should hit some but doesn't, and hasn't, but can defend. Seriously, we love glove picks who can't hit. Bishop's a junior so we can't even low-ball him, really, to save money for someone else. Dude can defend, though, and he can run. Seems a few rounds too high to me, but like I said - we are fond of these guys. Sometimes they turn into Chris Taylor. Sometimes they turn into Jack Reinheimer. This falls on the Reinheimer side for me.  His swing isn't terrible but his eye is no great shakes for college, so I don't know how much I trust him even as an on-base guy at the top of the lineup. He's got speed (42 of 52 in steals, led the Pac-12 last year) and his arm is fine, but I don't need Charles Gipson. He's got that sparkplug rep, but that'll be harder in the pros too.  Bishop was a .295 /.395 /.440 hitter his junior year, and at least he takes some walks (unlike Cousino in his Junior year, who hit .310 /.365 /.440). 

BA's ranking has him around 150, which is a 4th or 5th round grade. Not what I want to be doing with my limited capital in this draft. Take a risk on a high schooler - if he goes to college you get a supplemental 3rd next year. The third is the last round you get one of those in.  That said, Bishop is a local guy so we saw him a LOT, and a lot of scouts in the area really seem to like him.  They feel like he's coming on.  I'll hope they're right, because based on our track record with most of these glove-first guys, there's a face-plant in his future. I hope he can walk the tightrope and be the next Austin Jackson, I just don't quite believe it.

Feeling: cool

4) Dylan Thompson, 6'2, 180, prep RHP. Dylan Thompson is one of those guys you like as a pitcher, not a thrower, and hope you can get him to be more of a thrower as he ages.  Not huge at 6'2, but is athletic and can get a solid build going.  Touches 93 to start games, high-80s to finish, so that's just a strength thing.  Has 3 pitches he's working with, and his late-breaking curve has some potential. If his can get his changeup (which he already has a good feel for) to be consistent he gets really fun.  I'm less concerned about how he does in August of 2015 than in August of 2017.  Zach Littell was like this, and struggled for a couple years.  Zach this year is striking out 9 per with an ERA under 3 in the MWL.  Building up decent teens with a good framework into being good pitchers actually is something we're not terrible at.

Once the Ms get Dylan in the weight room and get some drive from his legs, he could jump. This is what scouts are for: forget what he is now, what can he be and how likely is it we can get him there?  We've failed to get Tyler Pike to control his 3 pitches after some early flashes, but maybe we can get the right-handed Thompson to do what the left-handed Pike could not.  Glad for the teen arm pick, honestly.  We need some upside in the system especially amongst the arms (come back soon, Missaki).

Feeling: Warm

5) Drew Jackson, 6'2, 200, RH Junior SS.  Noooooo. See, I hate Drew Jackson (the player, not the person - I'm sure he's delightful over a game of Backgammon).  I was just talking to somebody before today's draft about how a player like Jackson would be just right for the Mariners since we like glove players who can't hit.  Enter Jackson. Great arm that MIGHT let him stay at short despite range issues, but he can't hit at ALL.  Like, AT ALL.  His ISO is 50 points.  FIFTY.  Doesn't walk a ton because this was the first year he hit above .207, and guys can knock the bat out of his hands pretty easily.  The Stanford Swing means he'll never hit for ANY power, and he has trouble just blooping in singles.  Congratulations Ms, that's two guys who might have some defensive skills but probably can't hit enough to ever get on the field. 

Don't get me wrong, the kid has an absolute cannon and I love watching him throw.  Look up some videos - that cannon is pretty amazing.  Sadly, it's the only thing I love about him.  If he could hit at all, he'd be a decent prospect. Since I don't think he can, maybe we can convert him to the mound. I just don't like drafting non-hitting Juniors I'll have to pay actual money to in order to attempt a mound conversion to get any value out of em.  If we'd fixed Austin Wilson's issues with the Stanford Swing I'd be more likely to believe we could get a little something out of Drew.  We haven't, and Drew is nowhere near the talent.  He doesn't need to hit for power to be valuable, but he does need to hit. Start crossing some fingers, I guess.

Feeling: Ice-Box Cool

6) Kyle Wilcox, 6'3, 195, Junior RHP. Small school guy from the NE (us? Never!). Per MLB.com, can throw 95-to-97 but loses pitchability, not short (weirdly for us), but controls all his stuff better when he's throwing 90-92. We'll see what we can do with him. Probably a reliever, even though his frame should let him start. So like I said: here comes the reliever part of the draft. At least we're good at this. 

He's a max effort dude and pulls wildly off his breaking pitches at times as they sail two feet out of the zone. Kind of has a javelin-throwing motion, which amuses me - especially when that ball sails.  I assume we're gonna tweak some mechanics to try to keep him in the zone more when he's throwing hard but he's a strong guy, and coming from a small college his instruction is gonna improve by leaps and bounds in our system.  Basically unhittable in college with good arm action, but also walked a ton and didn't strike out a bunch thanks to control issues.  Not a weird pick, just an arm we need to tweak.  These are the sorts of picks I'm pretty mellow about - we know what we like out of those small colleges and nab a good one or two every year.

Feeling: lukewarm

7) Ryan Uhl, 6'6, 230, Senior RH 1B.  A crusher at DII Indiana University of Pennsylvania. Finalist for the Tino Martinez DII POY award, set the HR record and a bunch of others at his school. From his school bio: "As of May 18, the senior first baseman leads Division II in four categories – 29 home runs, 0.66 home runs per game, 1.68 runs batted in per game, and a 1.085 slugging percentage. His home runs and slugging percentage totals, in addition to his 74 runs batted in and 154 total bases were all single season IUP records. He also batted .415 with 59 hits, 53 runs scored and 33 walks in 44 games." So that's nice.

Uhl was a 1-year senior wonder, who only hit 13 HRs his previous 3 years combined.  In his own words, the reason for his prodigious season: “I took a new approach at the plate and just tried to hit the ball hard.” So there's that. He's a big man at 6'6, and while me might just be another Poythress, there are worse risks to take on a senior who will sign for practically nothing.  Paul Goldschmidts have to come from somewhere, right?

We worked out Uhl before the draft, so we got a good up close look at him hitting - in Safeco - before we picked him. That's always a nice thing. I'm not always a fan of one-tool dudes, but we'll see what Uhl has, and it won't cost us a lot to find out. Add in the savings we can roll to one of the teens we draft, and it turns out pretty well.

Feeling: lukewarm

8) Cody Mobley, 6'3, 190, prep RHP.  We're going all out on the righties early. Mobly was a signability concern with nice height at 6'3 but still skinny.  He has really good armspeed, an 88-92 mph fastball and a nasty slider that he can throw for strikes, a curve and a workable changeup, and is one of those guys who we'll have to pay a couple hundred K to get to break his college commitment it sounds like.  Perfectly fine for a guy with some polish already, some projectability when it comes to velocity, and can hammer a FB and slider into the zone at any time.  

Has a bit of a hump-backed lurch in his motion but it doesn't seem to affect his accuracy and it's otherwise pretty clean for a teenager.  We still might smooth that out though, because it looks like he does it more or less depending on pitch selection. He does fly open a bit, but so do most teens, especially non-first-rounders. He was talked about as a 4th or 5th round guy, so we might have to pay that price in the 8th to sign him. We'll see. Good upside pick.

Feeling: Warm

9) Conner Hale, 6'2, 190. Senior RH 3B.  He was pretty good in the Cape Cod (All-Star, hit .327).  Naturally he doesn't have the power for first nor maybe the glove for 3rd.  He was a JuCo transfer to LSU for his last two seasons, doesn't walk much, has a doubles swing but no real HR power. He has decent size and let's the ball travel, but doesn't really punish it.  Maybe a timing thing to go with his somewhat flat swing? I'd have to see more.  Not really expecting much from him, but he's a cheap sign and Stefen Romero came in around this draft slot originally as a 3B as well (though he was more of a crusher his last year, and a junior sign).  These guys can work out, regardless of whether I expect them to.  

I'd have to think that Hale's ability to hit with wood over the summers helped him.  I assume we'll leave him at 3B because we like to do that.  We'll see what our minors guys can do with him - they got some nice arc into Miller's swing, after all, AND got him to be proficient enough at SS to play there in the bigs when I didn't think that was gonna happen.  Edit:  I looked into his defense, and I think some people are giving him short shrift.  Think of him as a 2B/3B instead of a 3B/1B, and that will make both his bat and his doubles more appealing.  He's around Brad Miller-sized as well. Senior signings are meant to be cheap leaders, but at least the ones we're picking aren't devoid of interest.

Feeling: lukewarm

10) Darin Gillies, 6'4, 220, Senior RHP. Another senior signing, he's almost 23 - but I care less about the age thing with pitchers.  He's 6'4, so at least he has the "correct" height to be allowed to throw in the bigs.  He can get on the ride and everything.  His career strikeouts hovered around 6 until this year with walks around 4, but then he blew up in Ks to 10.5 per 9 (walks stayed about the same).  He was mostly in the pen this year after switching back and forth his other years.  He's a sinker/slider arm with a two-seam fastball that can go 91-95 out of the pen, as well as a curve, and when he has control of both he can be a handful.  He loses control of it often enough that he's not always that handful.  Not a bad delivery, nor a bad senior sign.  If he figured something out this year, even better.  Like I said about Kyle Wilcox - we're good at these sorts of arms.  We'll see how nasty he is against wood when he gets here. 

Feeling: lukewarm

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That's the first two days!

Good:
- two really good arms early, one prep and one college.  They're both height-challenged, but we'll see if that's an inefficiency we can exploit.
- Senior signs who can still do a little something for your club (beyond the obvious pool flexibility they provide).
- A couple of prep arms we will almost certainly sign who can bring MOR potential to the lower minors.
- College bullpen arms that will no doubt rocket up the minors and be part of our pen or traded away like hogs at market.

Bad:
- WHY ARE WE OBSESSED WITH PAYING CHUNKS OF CHANGE TO PLAYERS WHO CAN'T HIT?

Ahem.  Still feel pretty good about these two days.  As always, what we choose to do with our day 3 selections and how risky we can be will help my feelings about the draft (spoiler alert: we did some REALLY interesting things on Day 3 to make me extremely eager to see us sign some fellas). So far, I like that we didn't consolidate all our money at the top.  If we can get Neidert to sign for a couple hundred K less than slot we might really do some stuff.

Feelings about the first 2 days: warm.  Not bad, Ms.  We needed to restock the pitching, and thus far we've been doing just that.  Not bad at all.

~G