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... their white-knuckle win in Houston was the key that unlocked the season.  Now sitting at 4-and-0, the Seahawks are in a position that feels about like Justin Verlander's after he retires, oh, let's say, the first 11 batters he faces.

Bill James jumped into a debate one time, where a bunch of guys were laughing about fans who were so naive as to mention no-hitters in the 4th inning.  James said, "oh, I think about it in the first inning.  It's a good way to spend the first few innings, until the first batter gets on."

Announcers won't risk looking so naive as to mention it ... but they're thinking about it VERY early, if the starting pitcher looks great.  James Paxton had a game in which he set down the first 8 batters, and then the 9th one got a stupid infield hit.  Blowers, involuntarily, blurted out a moan just as the ball came off the bat.  "The first hit has to be that one?"

So Relax.  Nothing wrong with watching the Colts game in view of a possible 16-0 season.  (And in that event, the next two playoff wins would be a cakewalk -- setting up a genuinely historic Super Bowl.)

(How 'bout dem Oakland A's?  Billy Beane was on an Arsenal Gunners podcast last week -- yes, you read that right -- and he said some cool things about winning without money.  Articles comin' up.)

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Three Mileposts

As I see it, you could divide the undefeated season into four epochs.  The first one is past.  Now the schedule looks like this:

• INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ON THE ROAD
• Average-solid team, home
• Feeble division rival, albeit away (anybody take the Cardinals, home, vs Denver?)
• Bottom-5-in-league team, away
• Winless team, home

That's the first epoch.  So if (1) the Seahawks do come away with a win vs the Colts, and if (2) the Seahawks are actually a great football team, then you're looking at 9-0.

Setting up:

• ATLANTA FALCONS ON THE ROAD
• Average-solid team, home
• Elite team, but .... hey have you heard this new thing about CLink, pass rushes, and linemen who can't hear?

So if you beat the Falcons, then you are very realistic to be 12-0.  And a team that is 12-0, everybody in the country -- even in New York -- is talking constantly about the undefeated season.  And the NFL would be frantically trying to get crowd rules changed in time for the playoffs, but since the Giants and Redskins won't be playing, the NFL won't move mountains to do so.

So you are 12-0 and then you've got one more huge bench press set to grind out before your warmdown:

• SAN FRANCISCO 49'ers ON THE ROAD
• Winless (0-4) team, away
• Feeble division rival, home
• Bottom-5 team, home

There you have it.  The Undefeated Season neatly divided into quarters -- piling the pressure onto tomorrow's game.  Win that one, and we'll probably spend the next month talking about the no-hitter.

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TEAM STAT VISUALIZATIONS

Here is the 2013 infographic, giving us a quick feel for the offensive and defensive mojo packed by each NFL team.  

This isn't yards per carry; it's "EPA," which you might compare to baseball's WAR. ... does anybody know why this infographic doesn't exist in baseball?  ... and you could isolate it by starting pitcher, viewable before each game ... and series...

Bah humbug.  :: shakes head ::  Okay, then, here's where things stand.  If the below is not legible, here's the direct link.

The Colts move the ball really well, but are about average defensively.  Seattle needs to score points tomorrow.  Russell Wilson should be prepared to win a shootout if he has to, a 31-28 type thing.

The Atlanta Falcons do indeed have a slippery silhouette through the defensive water - their passing game is the real deal, as you know - but they have real defensive issues.  Last year's 30-28 (IIRC?) shootout would be a predictable situation this year too.

San Francisco is shellshocked and even their defense is suffering, in part because its best player is in the pokey.  Well, pretty much.

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AS YOU KNOW, WE LIVE TO SERVE

Finally, here is the same infographic isolated on the last two weeks.  Now y'get it, why the Colts and Saints (and Broncos!!) are getting so much pub.

BABVA,

Dr D