Having gently complained previously on occasion of my impression of your putting too much value on small visual samples, I'm wondering if the reaction to 10 hitters is correcting an earlier problem - or amplifying it?
Without getting to see any of the action, my impression is this:
EVERY pitcher (for both clubs), *other than Bedard* had a miserable night.
Based on the play-by-replay above, clearly Maurer centered too many pitches --- but by your own admission, there were at least two occasions where Maurer did exactly what he should have and just lost. If those two "what happened" pitches turn into outs, Maurer is out of the first with minor damage ... a free reset ... and we have a completely different discussion.
Some days pitchers get away with bad pitches.
Some days pitchers get creamed on good pitches.
Maurer pitched poorly AND got unlucky. That's a particularly bad combination. But, from my perspective, this is precisely why very talented pitchers OFTEN get lit up early. They really have no experience in dealing with the "feeling" that every mistake is getting pounded. Even in AAA, some hitters just don't punish mistakes that way an MLB lineup, (and yes, even Houston has an MLB lineup), can do.
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Q. Is the Best Bet card revoked?
A. He's on probation, at minimum. In the next two starts, assuming he makes them, he'll need to show the slider that he showed in ST. I doubt he will.
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Q. On what basis is the card revoked?
A. He got it, in the first place, based on these short-term observations. Had they been valid observations, they'd have warranted the card:
- First of all, his stuff is legit (and remains legit), starting with a 91-95 fastball.
- A Freddy Garcia poise, presence, and pitchability.
- A signature slider with arm action that had batters consistently out in front.
- A willingness to attack with offspeed pitches early in the count, Japanese style.
He's still got the first one, and his problems look very fixable. But items 2-4 upgraded him off the standard Gil Meche template, and now items 2-4 (actually 2-3) are in doubt. So his card's in doubt.
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Q. Lesson learned?
A. Next time, get a longer look at a kid before you anoint him, Dr. D. (On Pineda, Lincecum, Erasmo and Seager the building blocks of the logic were well established, but in Maurer's case I jumped the gun, crediting Maurer with attributes before it was certain he had them.)
My bad. There's a light bulb that goes on, at least. Sigh.
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Q. Maurer doesn't have a good slider?
A. He does have a good slider, and a real impressive yellow hammer, and a serviceable change, but they aren't the bread-and-butter weapons that they looked like in spring training. In ST, he threw the slider with impunity, at any time, in any spot of the zone.
His first two games, sliders up have gotten punished. The result is that he's shellshocked, not knowing quite what's going on.
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Q. Wasn't courage supposed to be Maurer's big asset?
A. You can compare him to a star NPB pitcher who gets schooled in his first exposure to the bigs -- like Sasaki did, for about a month. And like Iwakuma had a real rough start. They're courageous. But they also need to learn the better part of valor...
In April 2000, Sasaki would throw a 90 fastball and it would get blasted for a home run and a gutpunched blown save, and he'd say after the game "I didn't realize he had that kind of power." The batter would say, "What, he thinks I'm a piece of crud, I can't pull a 90 fastball?!"
Daimajin was destroyed in his first 11 appearances, and then he adjusted.
Maurer has been coming middle-middle with offspeed pitches, getting them raked, and he's got to pitch with (a lot) more respect.
It says here that Maurer has good stuff, and has precisely the same adjustments to make that Daimajin did. Both pitchers got wayyyyyy too much of the plate early on.
Maurer's problems are fixable. Thing is, four pitches and 94 MPH, that's fine, but still leaves Maurer short of being Erasmo Ramirez, much less Michael Pineda or Tim Lincecum. It cuts Maurer back to "very good SP prospect" in SSI's view.
Like I said, my bad. Siiiggghhhhhhhh....
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Q. What's the path to success? Should he continue in the rotation?
A. Thusly...
NEXT
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Comments
In Maurer's first two starts, his mistakes have been punished beyond all proportion. I think he walked under a ladder or something. The kid's got to be feeling star-crossed.
We didn't emphasize that factor for other reasons, but thanks for pointing it out. I agree 100%, and it sounds like the Mariners agree, too.
Also didn't emphasize the fact that the OTHER pitchers gave up 10 runs of their own, and that the M's scored a ton, also. But yeah.
Maurer may flame out ... but when I look at the final result from last night's game, I'm reminded of the 21 run salute Seattle gave Texas last year. Not really indicative of reality.
The Astros did bang out 22 hits, including 5 HRs. They also did actually strike out 10 times.
Let's see: 47 ABs
Minus 5 HRs = 42
Minus 10 Ks = 32
So, by my count that is 32 balls in play and 17 hits.
So, what are the odds of sustaining a .532 BABIP anyway?
Honestly, it's the guys giving up the dingers that I'm more concerned about. Loe has been a train wreck from day one. His 500+ innings prior to 2013 "suggest" this has just been a bad spell ... but when his "good" trait was not giving up HRs in Texas and Milwaukee ... exactly how long is his leash if he has indeed lost that magic?