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Q. Pretty cool to have an SSI accomplice on the postgame shtick, right?
A. Wish it would happen every time. 'specially when it's MoeDawg.
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Q. Do we care that it was a "shutout"? Like, as opposed to 8 IP, 1 ER?
A. There's a definite tendency for outlier rookie performances to point toward --- > above-average success from there.
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Q. The statline was 9 1 0 0 4 7. Did he throw as well as the numbers suggest?
A. He did not, no.
But that's pretty cool. He brought his "B" game -- without a doubt it was his "B" game -- and the inherent nature of his game, even shabbily executed, snuffed out the Padres like a convenience-store match stub. The shutout wasn't "forced" on the Padres; it was just one of those things. Some really good lineup might have blitzed him for, oh, 3-4 runs on the night. Might have.
Dr. D actually did not watch this game -- first in 2015, we think -- and then checked the score. Montgomery 1-hitter! Raced downstairs to skim through and was really taken aback by the way the game happened.
Just saying, this one wasn't a few pitches away from a Felix Perfecto, even though the stats show one inch (literally) from a no-hitter and an ocean of media attention.
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Q. What did he NOT do well?
A. He was wild with the fastball and laughable with the curve. Not "effectively wild" and not "wild in the zone," just wild period. (A lot of no-hitters by no-names occur when the pitchers are wild.) 2-for-9 with the change curve but a surgical 16-for-18 with the nickel slider. LOL. That's a young lefty for you.
But hey. We're not saying he was a piece of crud. He had 7 strikeouts and -- I'm pretty sure -- 10 different two-hop bouncers pulled to the left side. There wasn't a single nifty play by an infielder, because they caught everything waist high at 60 MPH. The first ball pulled in the air was inning 7.
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Q. So why did the Padres have so much trouble, aside from the novelty factor?
A. Because the wild fastball changed the eye level. And it got way in on the righties. The Padres were bobbing and weaving in the batter's box like Floyd Mayweather -- and in those circumstances they couldn't lean out to get offspeed stuff. Or mistake fastballs out-and-over, for that matter.
The fastball had the Padres moving their feet, as it were, and the changeup got into the Padres' heads a fair bit (compared to its getting into the Royals' heads a lot bit). Just the wild-fastball / deadfish change game was plenty to cobble a quality start, but ... Montgomery's wannabe slider-cutter, THAT he had control of. Painted the black on lefties, backdoored it on righties.
He's got four legit weapons. None of them game-breaking except when the changeup is on his "A" rhythm. But not so many left hand pitchers can attack in four different ways. Name a few. The names will be be celebrity, we betcha.
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Q. The cambio ... Blowers (and Jonezie) aptly noted it's got the golden -10 MPH chute to it, and that it's consistently down and flopping. Dr. Detecto noted that the arm action on it is plenty 'nuff to --- > enrage an ego'ed out "Fastball Is The Coin Of The Realm" major league lineup.
A. Let's put a pitcher's change speed GAME onto a scale of 5:
Against KC, I would put Montgomery's changeup at 4.0, and if there were a grade >4.0 he'd have gotten that. They didn't talk much about it in the postgame, but from the 3rd deck, it had been a long time since Dr. D had seen a lineup's timing fouled up that bad.
Against SD, the grade is 3.1 or 3.2 on that scale. This despite throwing only 8 of 21 cambios for strikes, and despite having a lousy motion.
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Q. Lousy motion?
A. At the 0:20 mark on this video rat cheer, tell me how far his back foot kicks up higher than his cap at decel. Next pitch, 0:27, same thing -- cap is never less than 4' higher than his left cleat. (4' means four feet, not four inches, LrKrBoi29.) Now watch the next pitch on the vid, 0:36. What's the elevation of his back foot and his baseball cap at finish?
Dr. D is here to tell you that he has NEVER seen a pitcher change this cap-cleat relation more randomly than Montgomery just did. Here comes the next pitch; there is a 5-foot range in this checkpoint and you got zero idea where the foot will be from -4 to +1 feet. Meaning the release point ain't exactly a given. ..... how many pitches has this guy thrown in his baseball life?!
Hence the wildness.
By the way, it's the high foot that is good. If you just joined us.
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Q. You're not going to finish by rubbishing a 1-hit shutout.
A. On the mound, he grabbed the sign, rocked back, and threw the ball like it was his favorite thing to do in the world. whooooooooop fastball way high, 2-0 count. Therefore, let's grab the sign, bounce down and up, and throw the ball like it's our favorite thing to do in the world. Anybody have a stopwatch on him? That's tough on the hitters mentally, too. Bob Gibson was noted for rushing the batters.
It was funny to watch Montgomery laughing, joking, and chatting the bench up in the tops of the innings. ... like Chi Chi Rodriguez making jokes to the gallery while he pressed his hands forward into his backswing. It woulda been weird to see hitters talking to the starting pitcher in a normal game; have you ever seen a position player say a single word to a pitcher during a 6th-inning no hitter? HEH!
On the interview, they asked Montgomery how much pressure he had due to the no-hitter after 6. He looked confused. Wasn't thinking about it, he said. Honestly, I pretty much believed him.
The kid's personality is very distinctive, and those offspeed pitches will play, and he means to use 'em. The plot thickens. :- )
Enjoy,
Dr D
I enjoyed Jason on the postgame far more than Valle. I think Bay still lives locally and may have been looking for something to do. It could work for him. Whenever I hear Valle speak, it makes me think I'd even prefer Sims over him, who is at least articulate when he says something stupid or obvious.
His understated manner wears so well on the viewer.
For me, a lot of guys are just a little bit self-conscious at all times, over-smiling for the camera, selling themselves a bit, while others are focused on the ballgame. Personally enjoy Krueger a lot.
Release point observation from the CF camera: Doc, on your vid link you can see (fro the CF non-slo mo camera) a script that says "PADRES.COM" on the backstop, to the left of home plate. Those words serve as a neat reference point for Montgomery's release pont. On each pitch prior to the 8th inning his release point is exactly at the lower right corner of the "M" in "PADRES.COM." Clearly there were lots of pitches we don't see.....but he's spot on with those (to that point) in the vid.
Then something else cool happens, in the featured pitches from the 8th and 9th innings , using that "M" as a reference, his release point moves to the left, up a bit, too. Now he's coming from the upper right corner of the 'M." It is almost like he's moved to the left a bit on the rubber.
Does a guy like Felix or Maddux do that, mid-game, to give guys something elese to look at 3rd time through? Might Montgomery? Perhaps he was just reaching for a bit more juice on his pitches......Don't know.
On the final pitch, he's back to the bottom right of the "M," btw.
His back foot kick is interesting (but it doesn't seem to change hi RP), because it isn't related to particular pitches. He has 80 mph floaters where he kicks and some where he doesn't. Ditto on the heater, as it were.
Some pithcers, often the greatest ones (think Maddux, Felix, Carlton, etc) have a 'feel" for the art that is a 5+ on your scale above. Some don't but for the guys who do, their feel is worth .5-1.0 pts on all of their pitches. The hitters they face are rarely dug in and that amplifies each of their offerings. Hitters, it seems, let their egos get in the way.
As a famrhand, Montgomery was really tough up through A+. From '08-'10, Rooie ball-A+, he never had a WHIP in excess of 1.1 and he was K'ing 8 guys a game. Then in AA and AAA his K's went down a bit, his BB's up a bit, and he got hammered, running a WHIP around 1.4. All of a sudden he got better in Tacoma, btw.
It would be really interesting to see what tweak he made, or was asked to make, down in ST. Or maybe the tweak was mental. But the kid found something, (Waits has helped that along) and he has a running mate/wingman (Zunino) with whom he seems to share a Radar Love relationship. I think they "get" each other...
There isn't anything wrong with this team that a shakeup (that keeps Waits, who is a great steady hand with throwers) wouldn't help.
Flash in the pan? Not likely. unless he loses his change altogether. A lefty with a FB and wicked change + a 3rd pitch will be a l;efty who is around for a long time.
The changeup has always been there; Fangraphs offered this up back in '12: "Based on this outing, I would grade Montgomery’s fastball potential as a 50 (average offering) on the 20-80 scouting scale, while also giving a 60 (plus offering) to the changeup and a 45-50 for the curveball." Ealier in that scouting report they called some of his changeups "wicked." They also said his top end was as a 4/5 starter.
He's a heck of a 4/5 starter.
I luuuuuuuuv him!
Dedicated to Montgomery and Zunino: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDivcHe-tsc
(Maybe the best driving song in history, btw. Well, "Open all Night," (Springsteen, btw), "Walking on Sunshine," "China Grove," and most of Mellencamp. Well, almo al of Springsteen, too are right up there, too.
Oh what the heck, enjoy the morning!
This is another interesting concept you point out Moe. There have been a few guys who changed positions on the rubber deliberately per batter. Will be interesting to watch Montgomery on this.
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Your excitement on Montgomery excites me. :- ) You going to adopt-a-lefty on him? Without a doubt he's got some 1st-round type talent and flashes of results that open up his ceiling. Was it Jamie Moyer who tweeted last night that Montgomery was ready to go? Good for a conversation. Moyer knows rather more about pitching than you or I.
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As we know, a pitcher's literal release point (unintentionally) varies by only a few inches, no matter how sad his mechanics are. As in golf, where a marginal PGA player might have mechanical issues but they are measured in very small distances.
It is Montgomery's HEAD that I actually care about; the back foot was used as an accessible way to describe the problem. We won't see Felix (or J.A. Happ) finish with his shoulders in the sky on one pitch, and then brush his cap against the dirt on the next one. It's like a back knee in golf; bending it is non-negotiable. A decel as weird as Montgomery's is not seen on a star pitcher.
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Which, in its way, is exciting too. Montgomery's pretty rough-hewn, as are the other three kids, and he's already a load.
...is that he's a random pitch generator. Change-up, curve, slider, fastball...all these weapons to choose from...none of them great. The hitters can't sit on anything, not even when his command is off. He also has plus plus PLUS deception, to my eyes.
Deception. That's what I'm seeing - the hitters just cant get a good read on him. It'll be interesting to see if they have a better idea of how to attack him when they see him for the second or third time. I hope not because I love seeing the confusion and frustration.
Right, it will be interesting to see what % of that blindness dissipates as they see him again. 30%? 80%? Have to wait and see.
The hitters' reactions are usually reflected. Hope that didn't come off wrong.
Because it was YOUR insight Matty. ;- ) +1
He had success and then he had some failure and he probably dealt with some injuries as well. Then he changed organizations, twice. At some point it all came together - the repetition, the learnings from bad outings (and good ones!), from big innings, the exposure to different coaches, catchers, and organizations.
That a pitcher goes to a different club, AND THEY TELL HIM TO DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT, and that unlocks the door.
Personally I find that very reasonable: you tell Jamie Moyer to trust his fastball, you get one result. You tell him something else, you get a different result. ... Gil Meche was a good example. Took him like 3 starts in KC to turn into a TOR.