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PLAYOFFS

The Orcs got smashed by the Treants by a 7-1 score, leaving us with a comfy 5-game lead still:

We're playing sluggishly, that being +3 - 6 following an 8-game winning streak, but that's one of the perks we get with a huge lead.  You can play sluggishly for a few weeks somewhere.

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FIFTH INNING

In schach the IM's and GM's talk about a fine feel for the critical spots of a game.  A good move or two, right when it matters most, makes the whole four hours pleasanter or unpleasanter.

In the 5th, the M's were down a close 4-3 when James Pazos relieved, 1 out and man on 1B, but was wrecked by Lady Luck:

1) Single.  A 93-MPH cue ball that dribbled into the Bermuda Triangle between 3B P SS.

2) Out.  A routine fly out to RF.

3) Single.  An 0-2 jam pitch, 94 MPH and PER. FECT. LEE. executed, dribbled the other way against the shift into the outfield.

4) Single.  An 0-2 pitch, hit and run, Rockies banged a ground-rolling hit through 2B.

5) Stolen base on a LHP.  Putting 2 men in scoring position.

6) Single.  A  2-0 pitch, admittedly centered, that produced yet another worm-burner, this one finding space to the right of Dee Gordon.

7) Strikeout.  Of the pitcher.

Two observations:  first, if any one of the rolling grounders hit a fielder, inning over.  None did.  Ah well.  M's have had their share of luck the first half, no?

Second, this whole sequence took the score from 4-3 to 8-3 and led Scott Servais to sensibly use guys like Morin and Lawrence the rest of the way, rendering moot our 7-run rally.

We can all cry over spilled milk, but Dr. D thought you'd like a description of the "Butterfly Effect" 5th inning.

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PAXTON

All sources say it's lower back, no problemo, grabbed a bit during warmups.  Servais on first warmup from the mound goes "What was THAT" and 2 homers later, Pax is out of there.  's OK, all the starters have been ridden hard and each one of them could use 10 days off.  As Mo' Dawg would say, your mileage may vary with James Paxton.

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MO' DAWG

Points out Denard Span's wonderous production since coming over (.310/.355/.487!) and 121 OPS+ overall on the season.  It's important to note that Span's career OPS+ is 103.  Is he going to pull a Cruz at age 34?  He certainly doesn't look like he's bumping along in luck; he's dangerous in the box.  His chase rate is only 23.8%, his SwStr% is only 6%, and he puts steam on his swing -- way past anything Dee Gordon, for example, attempts.  Finally, his xwOBA (launch velo x launch angle = xpected production) is 3rd on the club, behind only Cruz and Haniger.

In fact it's hard to see why he's not in the lineup daily, with a 133 OPS+ for us.  Problem of course is where; Friday they tried Gamel in CF.  Here's a question for you.  If Robbie can play 1B on a moment's notice, why not Span ;- )

Kidding.  It's a good problem to have.  Dawg also points out Ben Gamel's platoon hitting, .297/.370!/.399 and Gamel is Age 26 With Experience.  It's my understanding that Jerry Dipoto wants to get younger, not older.

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I flat enjoy the players and the vibe on this ballclub and I'm fine with the ebbs and flows.  Savoring every moment.  Go get 'em boys.  .... Also, go get 'em Jerry, on July 31.   They're tired and can use some cavalry.

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Be Afraid,

Dr D