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The M's really need at least 4 starters to step up early with several quality starts each in April and into May, so this bullpen has a chance to gell and actually become a unit.
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Shame that it didn't pan out for James Paxton this March; the M's seem to have been rooting for him, but he just hasn't gotten his act together yet. Could be that he's adjusting to Stottlemyer's view of him as a curve ball pitcher, which could be good, like a golfer having a couple of bad rounds before his new swing jells. Alas, the Paxton AAA scenario does have its advantages.
Such as the fact that Nate Karns doesn't have to face the idea of having a Michael Pineda rookie season and then getting powerflushed back to the minors. Hey, in 2015 Karns had the equivalent of a 30 HR, 100 RBI rookie season. Ever hear of a rookie HITTER getting sent back down in that situation?
Here again is that list of rookie SP's, the last 15 years, who were at 9K per game or more:
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| Rook SP | Year | K per 9 IP | Went on to do what? |
| Francisco Liriano | 2006 | 11.0 | Was going to be Johan Santana+ before DL |
| (Yu Darvish) | 2012 | 10.4 | exceed Iwakuma's salary |
| Gio Gonzalez | 2009 | 9.7 | 3-5 WAR last six years in a row |
| (Masahiro Tanaka) | 2014 | 9.3 | exceed Iwakuma's salary |
| Lance McCullers, HOU | 2015 | 9.2 | ... |
| Matt Moore | 2012 | 9.2 | Make Trump money after 9 IP |
| Colin McHugh, HOU | 2014 | 9.1 | Go 19-7 the next year too |
| Michael Pineda | 2011 | 9.1 | Confirm everything you ever suspected about SSI |
| Felix Doubront, BOX | 2012 | 9.0 | blow out his shoulder |
| Carlos Rodon, CWS | 2015 | 9.0 | ... |
| NATE KARNS | 2015 | 8.9 | lose his job?! |
| (DiceK) | 2008 | 8.8 | exceed Iwakuma's salary |
| Scott Kazmir | 2005 | 8.8 | win 100 games so far |
| Jake Odorizzi | 2014 | 8.8 | pitch even better last year |
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So, color me pink on the chance to see what Nathan Karns can do in 2016. Paxton can get his act together and be in rhythm when one of the starting 5 gets an owie. What's the over/under on the time frame for that? A few guys had the first SP injury as occurring in March. Dr. D will set the over/under as May 5, but gingerly bet the over.
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The newspapers had the sense that Joel Peralta was the #11 reliever for a few weeks now, no doubt because of the feel they were getting from DiPoto and Servais. Dipoto made the interesting observation that Peralta has a reverse platoon split; I hadn't thought of that. Peralta would therefore help out significantly against LHB's in view of Charlie Furbush floating around ghost-like on the Ethereal Plane.
Is that TRUE, that Peralta's fastball-splitter combo makes him a good choice against Fielder and Choo? Well .. his career slash is exactly the same against RH and LH, .230/.290/.410. This would make him a reverse pitcher from his own point of view (since the league norm is a pretty good differential). It makes him a neither-handed pitcher from the batters' point of view.
Later in his career, maybe? Last year, 2015, Peralta gave up a much better SLG against LEFT hand batters, a .313 SLG vs .508 against righties. But that's in only 50-70 at bats each side, and he had a better K/BB against righties, so that's just limited data. In 2014 he did pitch like a lefty:
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| vs | AVG | OBP | SLG | BB | K | AB |
| RH | .240 | .283 | .480 | 6 | 30 | 100 |
| LH | .247 | .293 | .377 | 9 | 44 | 146 |
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And in 2013 he did well also, giving up a .163 AVG against lefties. For the three years cumulative, about 300-400 AB's each side, Peralta does have a reverse split.
So, go with DiPoto (again). He sez lefties have a hard time coming up with decent contact against Peralta's split, and that seems right.
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The newspapers say that the M's may go with an extra batter against Hamels and Holland in Texas - that bat being Stefen Romero. This would leave no relievers past Peralta, which is just peachy by us ...
But! Peralta's effectiveness against LHB's could (theoretically) tempt them to go with Vidal Nuno only against LHB's. Dr. D never did buy in to the "absolutely must have two LH relievers" dictum, so then it becomes Roach (Guaipe) vs Montgomery (who has to stay up or leave the organization).
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The M's are rumored to be talking with the Padres about a RH reliever, those being Vincent, Quackenbush and Edwards. Kevin Quackenbush is discussed en passant at the D-O-V Mainframe. We assume that such a trade would put the kibosh on a Romero/Texas scenario, as well as on Donn Roach.
Leaving the bench as:
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| 1B/DH | Dae-Ho Lee |
| OF | Franklin Gutierrez |
| SS | Luis Sardinas |
| C | Clevenger OR Brantly |
| CL | Steve Cishek |
| SU1 | Joaquin Benoit |
| SU2 | Tony Zych |
| LH RP | Vidal Nuno |
| RP | Joel Peralta |
| LH | Mike Montgomery (or Stefen Romero) |
| RP | Roach OR Guaipe OR trade (or Stefen Romero) |
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Looks a good two notches better than you thought it would. All hail to the layering concept.
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Sorry to Mo' Dawg about Shawn O'Malley, but he and Romero become the #26 and #27 roster players. Just a matter of time for them, prolly not very much time. DiPoto praised Dae-Ho Lee's "calmness" at the plate, and underlined that the M's are serious about help against LHP's.
That's been our impression too, that the M's have looked a little iffy against quality left handers. The bright side to DiPoto's followup is that we can honestly hope that the Mariners will use their righty lumber in-game. As Earl said, "I kept packing my bench with those big bats, and they just kept giving us the big hits and winning us games."
Some guys look better than you expect (Roach, O'Malley, Marte and Sardinas), some look the same (Leonydas, Miley, Romero), some look worse (Montero, Taylor). Dae-Ho Lee has looked the same: like an NPB star who translates.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
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You can bet, Rain, that there will be an acquisition in the next week that will help create a "unit".
Right now, they are not interlocking pieces in the jigsaw puzzle.
And Cishek appears to have the bow-and-arrow-edge-of-your-seat-itis.
Hey, it's a week until the games count.
The jelly still has time to gel.
zoom
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As much as many of us would like to see Dipoto work his magic again and make a solid reliever appear here for a couple of spare parts - and I do realize that the M's have a LOT of SPARE parts to deal, I highly doubt Dipoto will make a trade for a player that ends up on the 25 man roster in the next week or so.
There just are not spare relief pitchers hanging around that teams want to trade now. Even the Phillies and Braves need good relief pitchers until June, when they can get a lot more for those guys when they have again proved to be valuable... and despite dangling Brantly, Taylor, Ty Smith, Montero and numerous level A players, Dipoto just does not have enough to get some one better than Peralta or Rollins for that matter.
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Why not take 6 along for the rotation? Not even the King is going to be able to fend off ineffictivity from too many innings.
It's just too bad neither Paxton nor Karns really lines up well for swingman though.
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This notion that, just because he's never done it, he must therefore adjust for a long time to get it right...why is it OK for Mike Montgomery then???
Stupid.
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With Montgomery it's use him or lose him. No reason to disrupt Paxton being a starting pitcher at this point. We need him stretched out and ready to enter rotation when somebody gets hurt.
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I'm with you, Matt.
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I agree with that too...with the asterix that none of us really know either guy's makeup. We are projecting our hopes and wants on to Paxton. It's entirely possible that he doesn't have the makeup to be a bullpen guy right now. Maybe it takes him 20 minutes to get loose - I honestly don't know. It's one of those things (among many) that will always be a block box for us keyboard GM's. There is a lot more to these players than what we see in the box score and on the field - the coaches and trainers see all of it. Sometimes their decisions don't make sense to us because we simply don't have the information that they do. It happens a lot - internet intelligencia gets up in arms about a lineup decision that doesn't seem to make any sense at all...until the broadcasters tell us in the pre-game that the player that we think *should* be in the lineup has the flu or is nursing an injury. We always have to be cognizant of how much we don't know. Doesn't mean they are right to send him to AAA - but they *could* be.
The real thing to keep our eye on is what they do if Paxton gets on a roll and starts torching AAA while one of the 'established' M's starters (lookin' at you Miley) struggles. How deeply is the veteran entitlement embedded with this new regime? Where are they on the risk/reward see-saw? Only time will tell.
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Only question I have is Griz's idea that we don't know how quickly he could get warm. Might be unable to get ready quick. Lots of guys can't.
Even that, I think, is not dispositive. Someone - Merrill - mentioned last week that the org really wants both these guys to get real innings this year. I think that's right. In that sense, this is long-term play, which is probably the wise course. Of course, DiPo hasn't been here suffering the last 15 years as have we all. We want to win now. He wants to build a program. (On which point, is anyone a little worried that the Angels' farm system left behind by DiPo is rated among the very worst in MLB?) They probably figure that the difference between Paxton or Roach (or whomever) as a long man in the bullpen is not great enough to risk the development of a potential ace the next five years.
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What do you all make of the Mariners waiting until the last minute (well, the last WEEK, anyway) to announce their choice of backup catcher? Could be that they can't decide between them.. could be that it's insufficiently important to worry about... I reckon they're pushing other teams who need a backup catcher to choose their favorite-in truth, not much for the M's to choose, between Clevenger and Brantley, from all reports I've read- and offer a strong RH reliever, in return. (THat's also why the bullpen decisions are left unannounced- I expect Cishek, Benoit, Peralta, Zych, Nuno and Monty to make the squad, but a decision on Roach or Parker or AN Other is pending a trade of one of our backup catchers.
"Watch this space!"
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/03/padres-to-acquire-dan-straily-ast...
[If the previous speculation has any "legs", then this probably represents bad news for the M's' efforts to fill someone's backup catcher need.
(On hte other hand, it adds to the glut of RH relievers in the Padres' 'pen!)]