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Our Story to Date

On July 9th, Iwakuma had his 5th consecutive dubious game.  Well, number five wasn't dubious; numbers one, two, three and four were dubious, and number five was an early KO (six earnies to Boston in three innings).  

This was unsettling to most, because it meant that he'd started 35 games and had 5 bad ones ... all of which were the previous five.

We kid ... only a little.  In his first 30 starts, Iwakuma had thrown 27 lockdowns, and in the other three games he'd given up 4-5 runs.  Now, bam, 5 starts, all five of which were the kind of March 2012 performances that had 'Merkin scouts thinking he wuz a tomata can.

We wrote this article on the 11th.  The Exec Sum being:

• All pitchers, including and especially Verlander, have 6.00 ERA months.
• Ichiro was questioned EVERY year he had an off month in April.
• Iwakuma had given up 10 homers in those 5 games, not by bad luck, but by BP mistakes.
• His problem was command.  Not "stuff."  Surprisingly, his velo and break were fine.
• He didn't look like he was in pain to me, at all.
• Pitchers like Maddux, Moyer, and Iwakuma have to be razor sharp.  Imagine Jamie Moyer without his best command.  Well, that's what he was at the end of his career, when he was in AAA.
• Iwakuma is a virtuoso of self-correction.
• He was >50%, every game, cumulative, to self-correct in that game.  He would go on to be a top-10, top-15 starter in the AL for the next few years.

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Let's! Go! to the VIDeo Tape!

How did things work out?  Dr. D thinks that he analyzed this one not so badly.  There was an interesting point that Dr. D overlooked, though:  Iwakuma didn't self-correct in one game.  He self-corrected by stages, over the course of three games, like this:

1. July 9 Red Sox -- "B" game
2. July 14 Angels -- 40%
3. July 20 Houston -- 65%
4. July 25 Twinkies -- 90%
5. July 31 @Red Sox -- "A" game

The percentages there, are the amounts of ground he gained on his A game.

We're not just tossing a cliche out there.  That's our Official Scouting Report (TM), a considered opinion.  

In the Angels game, Iwakuma's result was excellent -- 7 IP, 1 BB, 7 K, 1 HR, a BaseballHQ 5/5 quality start.  In the Houston game, against feeble opposition, he was even better -- still 7 K, and no HR.  

But during the games, I felt that he lacked the ability to consistently throw his three fastballs:

• jam pitch
• pound the knees
• ladder pitch, one baseball's width above the zone

He did not reliably do that, but he was better than he had been against Boston.  How much better?  Check the percentages above for my opinion :- )

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San Shin!, Dept.

July 25th, in the Twinkie game, Iwakuma was snapping off the ball and finishing with that little bounce step.  He actually hit 95 MPH several times and the shuuuuto (thrown 19 times) was shuuuuting.  But the fastball was mostly all he needed:  most of the strikeouts, the Twins waved and missed badly, or were frozen and turned back to meekly take the Dead Man's walk.

Iwakuma's first 30 starts were a whale of a lot fun -- but you don't really know what you've got until the boxers are both back in their corners with busted noses and gauze in their cuts.  Felix' rookie year, he was rampant, but it wasn't until after his first full two years that we knew we had a HOF'er. 

Iwakuma-san had his off month and is back to the Death By 1000 Razor Cuts.  Says here that he's good to go.  Just in time, too.  We'll need him to finish about 17-5 if he wants to be pitching a Game 163.