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I liked the overall moves this offseason, but I don't get the Gallardo move at all.
You need to be willing to pull him out of there ASAP if he shows that he is in fact finished. Sunk Cost.
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One, count it one, inning pitched. Five baserunners. No strikeouts. Four big hairy runs scored to the tune of a 36.00 ERA. On the one hand, it's the first outing of February. On the other hand, I predict this exact outcome for Gallardo in every appearance he makes until he retires.
Taking suggestions from the audience: Supposing that Yovanni Gallardo IS Jeff Weaver 2006-07, making $11M per. How many starts would you think Gallardo made for the M's? Weaver got 31 and 27 starts in those years respectively, to the tune of a 6.00 ERA.
Bah humbug. But at least Rzepcynski got destroyed. No, seriously. Somebody tell me that when Gallardo gets roasted on a spit, the M's will use one of those ten backup starters. The anti-Jemanji postgame interview: "No, really, I couldn't have felt better! I just missed a spot or four. A few slipped out of my hand, but that happens to a big league pitcher."
....
Article here on Jarrod Dyson's impending 450-500 at bats in left field. Personally, I can't complain about it too much, if Dyson is in fact some kind of mutant +15 runs defender out there and an 85% base stealer into the bargain. There IS such a thing as a glove specialist, and Earl didn't yank Paul Blair just 'cause he didn't expect a double that day.
Then too, we're all glad to hear the noiz on Guillermo Heredia this week.
Sigh,
Dr D
Comments
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Gallardo can get rocked all he wants this spring, I hope he does too. No way they stick with him if he's broken. Bullpen doesn't really make sense either with way more interesting RH BP arms.
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But the Gallardo move makes no sense to me even as a way to move Seth Smith. Would much rather have eaten Smith's contract.
So, Bahm, you're saying if he gets KO'ed his first five times out he goes on the DL that fast?
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I'm saying if they're going all in, which I think they are, take the best 25 you have. Dipoto doesn't strike me as bullheaded, if Gallardo is bad enough this spring I think he walks away from him. He's already said multiple times not all his trades are going to work out.
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JeDi doesn't cut guys, he trades them for buckets of balls. Accolades like: "He doesn't beat himself" or "He gives you a tough at bat" are only posturing intended to increase a player's trade value.
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and Povse, Moore...Hell, Neidert, Whalen, Overton...I'm so tired of talking about the token Silva early each year. I hope we're all wrong about him. Maybe he can build calluses or stop using lotion to get a better grip?
There's NO reason for a long leash this year. Waiting until April would be a mistake. A mistake we have no reason to think Dipoto would make.
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You and me, both, Wish.
Andrew Moore has already got the big guy upstairs (Dipoto, not the BIG guy) to stand up and take notice. That dude can pitch.
Heck, ZIPS has him at 7-9 in 148 innings next season, a 4.59 FIP, and worth 1.2 WAR.
I would be even more bullish than that. He gets people out. On the mound he reminds me of the high school point guard/quarterback, the best athlete on campus: Smooth, with a hurry-up rhythm, more giddy-up on the heater than you think, and on-the-black location.
BTW, ZIPS has Povse at 7-9 in 146 innings, a 4.47 FIP and 1.3 WAR. Miranda? 8-9 in 143 innings, 4.37 FIP and 1.8 WAR.
And Gallardo? Well, ZIPS has him at 8-10 in 140 innings, a 4.67 FIP, and worth 0.9 WAR.
Our $11M man loses by a nose to all three of them!
Andrew Moore is going to be a darn good MLB starter. We may get to see it this season. I think he will just go out and earn the shot.
BTW, here's an interesting page: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=11
Fangraphs is bullish on Seager, Cano, and Cruz and not at all so on Martin and Dyson (both with OPS's in the .660's). Haniger they have at .720, Vogs at .742 and Valencia at .740. Segura's at .706 and they like Gamel's bat slightly more than Heredia's. In fact, slightly more than Martin's or Dyson's.
They are Bullish on K-Pax, and a bit so on the King. Not so much on Kuma or Smyly. Diaz is worth 1.9 WAR in 65 innings.
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That's a LOL-inducer.
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I'm dreaming about having Robinson Cano Left and Right handed at 2nd and SS after this debut. So far, the consensus is that Segura gives something back, but at 26 with XP, what are the odds he reprises last season?
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There are times that I'd be happy to lock in a prediction before the season. Not one of those hitters lines look good enough for me to do so. If they've got 3+ years experience they will be worse this year. .290-310 WoBA the last 3 years, .285 prediction (Dyson, but indicative). I'm not saying I wouldn't be happy with any of those lines.
Vogelbach is tempting. No, 1 look at his MiL lines and I'd take the MLE easily over that. Not sure he'll hit his 2016 MLE in 2017 anyway. Every calculator I've used in the past has disappeared so I only have an idea what his MLE would be. I have little time to do the math myself anymore. Back to the point, Him and Valencia are projected just a bit better than what we got at 1b last year. Still think they can do better than that.
Seager would be his second best season approximately. Last year was so much better than any before, but I'm not betting against a repeat or overall improvement.
And with all that, Zips has them 12th in Bat? That would be predicting a disaster team year. If they're the 12th best offense this year, they're screwed. I'd rather ignore predictions. Or, rather, my prediction is that those are wrong.