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Cool Papa Bell sez, in a comments thread,

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[The Elias-Smith trade] is extremely incrongruent with how Dipoto handled Iwakuma. With Iwakuma he was both very spendthrift and very patient. He obviously wasn't just looking to save a penny but was perfectly happy to take as much time as necessary to break Iwakuma down. But the moment Iwakuma signs elsewhere, Dipoto rushes to make a deal with Boston and pays a huge premium to do so. It really looks like Dipoto was embarrassed and felt he had to immediately do something to reclaim some dignity. That may be not be fair, but Miley sure doesn't look like a guy who was so good he had to be acquired right away.

The thing is that the M's are supposedly trying to win next season in order to avoid wasting Felix and Cano's primes, so worrying about overspending a little bit three years from now suggests a lack of perspective. When the alternate plan results in a signicant degrading of the bullpen, the decision to play hardball with Iwakuma doesn't seem justified at all.

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If that were true it would be quite the condemnation.  Problem is that it's a fairly compelling wrap to the SSI roundtable.  Let's hope CPB is off track :- )

However you wrap it up, the 4 / $31M contract for Darren O'Day keeps haunting me.  (Since it's haunting me it may as well haunt you!)  In fact so valuable is Carson Smith, that some SSI denizens actually found it less painful to think of the trade as a Smith-Miley deal.  

Dr. D ain't buying that for a dollah; two weeks ago nobody was proposing Carson Smith for Marcell Ozuna.  Elias has 50 starts in the majors, a 7.7 strikeout rate, and you ain't going to find one of those as the throwin on a Nori Aoki deal.  Since Elias costs $1M and Miley costs $7M, I'm letting Roenis Elias pitch even if the deal is even steven.  I'm not sure I trade EITHER pitcher for Wade Miley, after you consider salary.

SSI denizens agree, even though they don't realize it.  is 'cause they can't decide which Mariner pitcher we gave up for Wade Smiley.  Sudden thought.  Didn't we have this debate about Kivlehan and Wilhelmsen?!

LOL :- )

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KURT COBAIN ALL APOLOGIES Dept.

As you know, it isn't (usually) Dr. D's shtick to be so lemon-faced for more than about an article at a time.  But here again!  There's a certain palpable "statement" quality to the trade:  Roenis Elias isn't the right KIND of pitcher.  Wade Miley is the right kind of pitcher.  It's all in your next-level understanding of the game, see?  To any ordinary observer, the two SP's are debatable, especially factoring in salary.  But if you REALLY GET IT, don'cha know, Wade Miley is worth double what you think he is.  But only if you put him in juusssst the right setting.

Slap me silly, Jerry DiPoto is going to turn me into a WAR advocate!  Wade Miley is average-solid and he isn't going anywhere from there.  His WAR the last three years were 1.8, 1.5, and 2.6.  It will be one of those three things next year, too.

The only real delta is in "synergy" with the glovework, but Dr. D thinks the synergy factor is being sold way too long.  Roenis Elias benefits from fast outfielders too!

Enough of that.  Regrettable trade.  Pass on.

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RAY MILLER PITCHERS

For the kiddies who just joined us, Ray Miller was a famous pitching coach who got his start under Earl Weaver's championship teams.  He coached pitchers like Jim Palmer, Mike Flanagan, Scott MacGregor, and oodles more SP's who were known for being tougher to hit than J.A. Happ.  He was the kind of coach who was SO good that they Peter Principled him into a lame major league manager.

Miller had The Aura, baby.  And he used this aura to get across a One Size Fits All mantra for starting pitchers:

• Throw Strikes
• Change Speeds
• Change Locations

If there were a 4th principle it would be "work fast."  If you didn't see the punch line coming down Sixth Avenue ... Wade Miley is the personification of this type of pitcher.  Dr. D was tapping his chin trying to think of the last Mariner left hand starter to fit this description ...

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Couldn't think of a single one.  

True, Jamie Moyer had these assets, but Moyer transcends the genre.  He could always hit the Triple-20 on the dartboard from across the room and his true powers were command and a death-fish changeup, not generic formulas.

Do you have to go back to Floyd Bannister?

I dunno, but the point is that we're going to muchly enjoy seeing Wade Miley pitch in Safeco Field.  Mike Marshall always insisted that you (well, not you, but ML pitchers) get tattoo'ed when the hitter gets the TIMING right, not when he gets the location he wants.  Miley's pitch selection:

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Offering	MPH	% thrown	Run Value
Fastball	91	55	0.0
Changeup	-8 MPH	20	0.0
Slider	-6 MPH, nice break	15	0.0
Change Curve	-18 MPH	10	0.0

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Like we sez, four "solid" pitches.  Granted, Dr. D fudged a wee bit on the run values ... his career run value on the fastball is -0.26, but it's never been worse than -0.50 and it's what batters sit on ... it's an average lefty fastball.  The changeup has a career run value of +0.26, but one year it was -1.39.  And so on.

This is not a guy who is going to explode in his 30's and become Cliff Lee; neither is it a guy who's going to roll off the table like Jeff Fassero did.  He's got to be Nature's Perfect #3-4 Lefty, and of course he's a good fit for Safeco.

We could go on for a while about POTD details, but it would distract from our basic understanding of the man.

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COMPS

American League left hand starters who are decent, primarily because of the Ray Miller formula?  Oh... Mark Buehrle is a guy with short arms and three pitches.  He's a historically durable pitcher.   Perhaps Wade Miley is going to make his next 200 starts in a row.

Now that CC Sabathia is an innings eater, that's what he does - mix a fastball, change, and slider.  Innings eater!  A guy who was a star in his 20's, and now cobbles 200 innings for you with smoke and mirrors.  That's what Miley is like, kind of.  Miley's a little sharper with his location than most Innings Eaters.

You know who does this?  Hector Santiago of the Angels.  HMMMmmmmmm.  What should we take from that.

Just going off memory, it seems that the USUAL Billy Beane lefty pitches this way.  Tommy Milone certainly.  Jesse Chavez is a righty, but ... is there something about Beane/DiPoto and this kind of pitcher?  Dunno.  If your arm is mediocre but your THIRD pitch is quality, you can afford to start the batter off 0-1.

Dallas Keuchel (and Colin McHugh RHP for that matter) both drive you batty with their unpredictable assortment of pitches, but we're getting off track here.  Both those guys are too good for what we're talking about.  Anyway.  If you want to dream, dream about Jerry DiPoto being a genius and Wade Miley leaping a plateau into a Dallas Keuchel TOR.

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CONTEXT-ADJUSTED

Point A:  there is a reason that Ray Miller's formula got famous.  It's because if a pitcher actually does it, he can win 14 games with no signature weapon.  The formula does work.  And Wade Miley makes it work.

Point B:  Bill James once spoke admiringly of these lefties who "don't beat themselves" ... they're hard to run on, since they're lefty.  They don't get tater'ed.  You have to string three or four hits to land a body blow, and ... if you have fast players on defense, that's hard to do.  "On a really good team these pitchers can win 16 games very, very consistently," sez Bill, or somesuch.  

You can see where DiPoto's vision was headed, or at least where he believed it was headed.  If you visualize the Mariner team having everything break right at once (which DiPoto is doing) you can visualize an average Wade Miley going 16-11, 3.33 for a championship team.  And people saying, after the fact, Wow, that was pretty stealth, to see the synergy here and grab Wade Miley to pitch in front of those outfielders and that acreage.

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Seduced,

Dr D