I'm glad you mentioned Jeter, Doc.
The MLB Taylor that I've had the chance to see (a very SSS for me) looks much like Jeter-lite, if we try to remember Jeter as a young guy who still was a mediocre SS. Jeter-lite, of course, means that Taylor looks like a pretty darn good player, especially for a MIF bat. I do not mean he looks like a HoF'er and the future face of baseball.
I love your comment on his "relaxed" nature at the plate and his concentration at time of attack, not well before. Lee Trevino had that. And when you talk pressure players in the golf world, there are only a few names (Nicklaus/Woods/Jones/Watson) who come to mind to match Trevino's ability to perform in the clutch.
In many ways, he's is already "out" of his own way. The un-Ackley in that regard.....or at least from my limited 30,000 ft. view. Sport at any level, but most assuredly at the highest levels, is about getting "in" the moment but getting "out" of your own way. I'm sure there is an aiki concept/principle that emphasizes that, Doc. In fact, that is probably the heart of aiki.
I like batters with that relaxed demeanor until just before the moment of attact. Think Ichiro. He was the picture of focused relaxation until he tugged on his shoulder/sleeve. Then he was lasered in.
He's a keeper.
As is Miller. Miller just became, btw, an IF-only Zobrist. Even if Taylor is your everyday SS, there are nearly 80 starts for Miller even if your entire IF is healthy. If you sit Cano and Seager even 10 times a year each (and it will go up as Cano ages) and you give them 10 more DH's. Give Miller 20 SS starts and even conservatively you then have 60 before you let Miller DH or injuries come to play. Or you could just ride the hot SS bat, like Earl would.
Factor in Ty Kelly (who should be factored in) and you get an incredible amount of flexability.
I haven't beat the Kelly drum in a while but goodness knows I've beat it loud and long. But since I've taken a break I will not feel to bad about pointing this stuff out. In his last 10 games hes had 17 hits; has gone hitless only once; has 6 multi-hit games; has walked 6 times; and has a .399 OBP vs RHP for the year, plus a .194 ISO (he's not an eye only guy from the LH side: He can hurt you). Alas, we won't see him until rosters expand.
Back to Taylor: The young Robin Yount, once he was no longer a teenager and before he became THE Robin Yount, was a .285-.325-.420-type of player. In his first 8 big league seasons (including a pro-rated '81) Yount never walked more than 41 times. Once pitchers figures out that the sting in his bat was the 40 doubles/yr. type of sting, he never walked less than 49 times and only one less than 53 over his next 11 seasons. His double numbers dropped but his walk numbers increased proportionally. If Taylor can be a line-to-line double guy on pitches black-to-black then (and if he can handle the yakker) then pitchers have to go off the plate to safely get him out. If so, he's BB's will increase.
If Taylor fell all the way to .265-.320-.410 would we be satisfied? We should be, that was Brad Miller last year (.265-.318-.418), and he was a pretty darn good player. That was the emerging Robin Yount.
BTW, go to B-R and compare Miller's numbers, the year vs. last. Well, except for his K's (up from 52 to 78 in a very similar number of AB's) and his BABIP (down from .295 to .241). His BABIP decline has cost him about 10 hits. You give him 10 more hits and he's now around .233-.300-.345, and doesn't look like a broken player.
Anyway, Taylor and Miller and Kelly = "What was the name of the young SS we traded? I hardly remember him?"
moe
PS: A mea culpa: Endy's hitting .300 vs. RHP. Sigh.........
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Q. Why not level 201 scan?
A. This is a first impression only. If Dr. D is crazy, who cares.
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Q. What is a KBIZLT swing, again?
A. Like Jeter, like Michael Young ... Taylor is smaller than both, though the swings remind. In this template, you'd be losing a bit of HR and gaining a bit of glove.
The main thing ... Taylor's swing Keeps the Bat In the Zone a Long Time (KBIZLT), he hits the ball anywhere, he "directs" the ball, he stays relaxed at the plate.
We're talking about a guy who hits the inside half of the ball -- he doesn't overextend his arms in a greedy fashion, trying to get a longer centrifugal arc. Also, the plane of the bat is on the plane of the pitch a bit longer than with the normal hitter.
He's the Yin to Brad Miller's Yang. Chris Taylor is way over to the left side of "be realistic - give the pitcher some credit here" and Brad Miller is way over to the right side of "let's do this thang."
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Q. Is Chris Taylor talented with the KBIZLT approach?
A. It's fascinating to watch Taylor react to the ball and then change his followthrough to match his intention. It's unusual for ML hitters to vary their followthroughs. Ichiro did.
The first pic is a pitch on which Taylor decided to go up the middle. Note the varying position of the letters on his chest, compared to a different HR/2B launch to LF ...
Looks like he could wind up with a "plus" hit tool along with the "minus" PWR grade.
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Q. Who's the SABR template?
A. Erick Aybar of the Angels provides a goal that --- > it looks like Taylor could aspire to.
Aybar is a little guy who doesn't get homers, and doesn't draw a ton of walks, but ... he can flat-out hit, amigo. So he maintains a .290/.320/.400 type slash line.
So, even with average/solid defense, Aybar gets the Angels 3.0 WAR from shortstop.
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Q. What about the oddly relaxed setup?
A. In the series below, you see a Jay Buhner-type lack of batting stance before the pitch, and even into the beginning of the windup:
From an aiki standpoint, that's cool. You can only max your concentration for a moment. A lot of guys, they're bearing down intensely --- > 7 seconds before the windup, and then they ask the ump to stop play ...
Then he uses a very Jesus Montero-like rock of the shoulders and uncoiling of the hips.
m up right now, yep, Fangraphs has the M's with the two top prospects in the game right now. Sabermetrically speaking.
It was prophetic as it applied to Taylor, and Cistulli scratches his head ... --- > why wasn't Chris Taylor one of Baseball America's top 50 prospects?
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Kelly, by the way, they project to a .321 wOBA. That's below Michael Saunders' at .330-.340 this year, so it's not clear where they could deploy Kelly.
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Carson's ranking is mostly a reflection of the fact that you've got AAA infielders here who are cooling their heels waiting to become average/solid major leaguers. The scouts like Taylor and Kelly too, but where do they play? They better trade Nick Franklin pretty quick.
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Q. With Willie Bloomquist gone, is it really feasible to play Taylor/Miller as an ongoing job-share drama?
A. Earl would certainly do it. That would be more fun than a team that had Kam Chancellor as its 3rd-best defensive back.
Cheers,
Jeff
Comments
Given recent M's position player prospect history, I'm firmly in wait and see mode on Taylor. Everyone was ready to anoint Ackley the second coming of Chase Utley after his rookie introduction. Franklin and Miler were going to be the middle infield of the future after their first splash. Jack traded Pineda for Montero based on his. I want to see how he performs once the book is out on him and the league adjusts. Lots of hard stuff inside and breaking balls down would be my guess.
When I look at Taylor. Similar body types, swing, known for being more of a glove player, low power, etc. To me they even look kind of simliar. Taylor will probably walk more and K more, but overall I could see a very similar career for Taylor.
Hence the idea of a Miller/Taylor duel to the death.
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Recently, somebody asked James what is the downside for Mike Trout? A string of .300/25/100 years and a non-unanimous HOF vote? James said, um, the downside is to be Cesar Cedeno.
Young players haven't found their level, even at the Mike Trout level, and of course Taylor isn't Mike Trout - even Trout after Trout's first 20 games :- )
Kyle Seager could turn out to be nothing, much less Chris Taylor ...
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Fangraphs' #2 ranking of Taylor deserves respect -- I love Cistulli :- ) -- but in Taylor's case I'd say 30% chance of a league-average hitting, defending shortstop. Which would be 3.0 WAR.
If we'd been told he was Jack Wilson's younger brother, nobody woulda blinked. Jack being the acrobat of the family.
Wilson in 577 AA PA's: .284-.360-.419 Taylor in 300 AA PA's: .293-.391-.383
Wilson in .240 AAA PA's: .303-.349-.408 Taylor in 346 AAA PA's: .328-.397-.497
They aren't that unsimilar in pedigree.
But Wilson was a career .265-.306-.366 MLB guy (with two very fine years). I would be surprised if Taylor is only a .100 ISO guy. He's got more pop, although Wilson did decline in later years.