Seattle Sports Insider

Jarrod Dyson's Skill Set

infield or outfield, there's a place in the game for defenders

Posted by

1/9/17

SABRMatt sez,

Dyson's value isn't limited to the singles, nor the glove. When we look at this outfield, we are talking about it as though the 80/85/90 OPS+ we're praying for are the full sum of their offensive abilities.

Haniger, Dyson, and Martin are all plus baserunners. How many times, in the 2016 season, did we get two on with none out and then fail to score because no one could take an extra base and everyone kept hitting into DPs or flying out with no advances or whiffing.

The whiffing part isn't totally fixed, but the speed component matters to DiPoto (and to me)...that has real offensive value.

When you account for his speed, Dyson is a plus offensive player if his big increase in contact rate is real. Martin is streaky, but if he hits at all, he can be useful with his wheels. And Haniger is super-athletic and has a reputation as a good baserunner in much the same way Michael Saunders did before all the injuries. As I've said elsewhere, Haniger is a right handed Michael Saunders, and he could be the version that followed his swing mechanics tweaks. Wouldn't we like to have that version of Michael Saunders but with his speed and defense back?

Dr. Detecto is Seattle's resident skeptic on "soft skills" WAR heroes who can't do much in the batter's box. You don' haf to tell him about the dangers of marrying Chone Figgins, figuratively or literally.

But! There IS such a thing as a glove wizard who earns his keep. Dyson has achieved, past tense, practice not theory, 60 runs saved in less than three years' play. Pro-rated, they're consistently measuring him for 20 runs on defense and 10 more net runs on the bases. Sabermetrics, in its infancy, was all about counting up these kinds of imperceptible runs. Now, it's a legit question whether Dyson is TRULY going to convert base hits to outs on a scale that massive, NEXT year. But Safeco Field gives Dyson the best possible opportunity to do so. If he's really one of baseball's five elite gloves in the OF, fine and dandy.

Jarrod Dyson has an 86 OPS+ over his career, with lots of added bonus out on the basepaths. Michael Bourn has an 88 OPS+ over his career, with lots of added bonus out on the basepaths. Bourn also has a $48M/4 contract that just elapsed. The thing is, the Mariners aren't giving up a Bourn or Figgins contract. They're bringing in a "soft skills" WAR hero the way you love to -- paying him $2M and playing him in spots.

If Dyson were our Big Free Agent Move, if we gave him 5/$90M or something, then this would be a different conversation. We're bringing this guy in stealth, as a benchie. LOL. Give the Warriors Shaun Livingston as a role player and I'll buy his jersey too...

....

Other outfield glove wizards who made large impacts with OPS's below 90: Gary Pettis, the later Willie Wilson, Peter Bourjos (a-ha!), Kevin Pillar ... not to count the shorstops and infielders. I ain't saying Jarrod Dyson IS a great defender. Just saying that IF he is, then the .260 hitting and the legs give you a classic player template. Even Dr. D is fine with this template, provided said glove man actually delivers on it.

....

Granted, the M's had to give up 4 club control years in Karns for 1 of Dyson. That's probably the catch. But a dazzling glove wizard, deadly on the bases, and an 85 OPS+, I think that's where Ozzie Smith came in.

Does it sound like we've taken a second look at the kid? :- ) That's 'cause we have. It all depends on whether he delivers on those speed skills. If he does, he's an impact player, no argument.

Enjoy,

Jeff

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Comments

Pettis

Great call on Pettis, Doc. There's a fair comparison. Not so much on Wilson, I think...at least until he turned 30. Prior to that he was a heck of an offensive player, hitting .300 and getting a triple about every 3 games (or so it seemed). He led the league in hitting once. He was, at one time, one of the finest players n the game.

But after he turned 30 and his bat turned into a 90-ish type, descending, then KC didn't do much in '86, with the Smith-Wilson-Motley OF. But they did win a WS in '85, riding a 179 OPS+ bat of George Brett and 3 starting pitchers bette than 120 ERA plus. Interestingly, all three of those OF guys were - dWAR defenders that year. Even Wilson's glove had slipped. They weren't earning their paychecks with their gloves. In '87 KC abandoned that and went with Tartabull and Bo in the COF's. Boomers, both.

I guess my concern is not directly Dyson....it is Dyson and Martin in the same OF at the same time, which means that you need Haniger to hit like folks think he is poised to. I just don't like the upside of those two guys. And I know that OF pairing is what a lot of people love. If Gamel hits .300 and Dyson is a 4th OF, I'll feel WAY better. Give me a handful of WebGems from Dyson in the first week....and some hint of a bat, and I'll jump on the bandwagon.

An OF of Dyson-Martin-Haniger has a career vR OBP of .329-.315-.309. I would almost bet that Martin, as we're set now, bats 9th vR.

MLB-TR now has us chasing another BOR starter. Of course we are.

The thing is...

It always feels like we're buying that stupid spoiler that is completely pointless on the 120 HP Honda Civic we have.

I'd get it if we had a photon torpedo launcher in RF, but putting bats into non-traditional positions (Cano, Segura) and then having a total lack of offense in traditional power positions just feels backwards.

This is where I'm at

I like Segura more than Marte, for sure - but Segura was a smoking crater on offense for the 2 years before this one. Nothing says he couldn't deliver a Marte-level season in 2017, which makes this coming offense much like last year's (since Segura was the main offensive add). Seattle's 2016 offense was carried by a 35 year old DH (147 OPS+) and a 33 year old 2B (138 OPS+).

# of 2B seasons over 135 OPS+ for a 2B aged 34 and above: 6 since 1950 (let's leave Nap and Hornsby and Eddie Collins out of it). # of likely PED-induced seasons on that list: at least 3 (Boone's 1 and Kent's 2). Robbie is a HOFer, but he's gonna have to keep showing that at an age when even HOF hitters fall off at his position in order for Seattle's MOTO to even reproduce last year.

# of DH seasons over 140 OPS+ after age 35: 25 (so better than Cano's odds) but mostly HOFers or HOF vote getters. Ortiz, Edgar, Molitor, Baines, Winfield... Cruz is hoping to be another Ellis Burks, who was a good hitter whose career wound down in the prime PED years. Cruz is not against PED use, so I'm not betting against him replicating last year just yet, but from an age-arc curve it's asking a lot. It was a really good year, as the song says.

To help those guys, Seattle has brought in... a bunch of OF scraps who can run a little. Dyson will lead off and Martin may bat 9th, meaning Seattle would be running 2 90 OPS+ guys out there against righties back-to-back for most of the game. It's not setting the inning on fire, but it's not ideal. As the Zduriencik defense-and-speed experiment proved, you have to be on base for your speed to matter for scoring purposes, and the other guys have to hit more than singles.

Seattle had a good offense last year, but it was precarious. I don't think it's any less precarious now, and if the balls aren't as bouncy (the home runs were excessive league-wide for a reason, IMO) then this offense could struggle to score.

Fingers crossed that this grab-bag of speedy defenders includes a couple of bats having up years at the plate.

Thanks Ice

You said it better than me. If Haniger hits .280 with 25 HRs, then we have a much more traditional St. Louis-type OF; Haniger becoming our Hendrick. BTW, Hendrick always had a .300 hitter in LF or CF.

Colby Rasmus signed for $5M. He's a + defender, goodbaserunner (doesn't steal bases), and hits 22 HR's a year while he OPS+'s .775 vRHP. We could have just bought him AND kept 4 years of Karns.

More and more I suspect that DiPoto had decided that Whalen, Heston and Moore had better upside than Karns. In a year when the cost of controled pitchers has sky-rocketed, you could easily argue that we gave ours away for a 4th OF.

If we trade Martin for JD Martinez (for example) then DiPoto has been an off-season genius.

I am looking at the bright side of the best defensive OF in the bigs and Dyson as a great clubhouse presence, so I do get it. But it seems like Cano/Cruz/Seager/Felix had our clubhouse pretty spic and span , anyway. And as good as he is with the glove, Dyson's upgrade isn't over Seth Smith but over Gamel/Hereida...and both of those guys are pretty solid defenders. If Dyson is a .250-.325-.353 guys (career averages) then those two may be offensive upgrades, too. Perhaps Tank O'Neill does get the June 1 cab ride to Safeco, where he goes Charboneau.

Ah well....he can pick it and steal a base. Doc's Gary Pettis comp is a fine call.

I admit I haven't been around SSI in a while, but...

What am I missing on Karns? What are you guys seeing that I am not?

As I said in a previous thread I had soured on him greatly last season. I felt like he showed that he is NOT the power pitcher we thought he was (Can't get through the fifth, indicating stuff or stamina is lacking, Control was iffy and strikeouts inconsistent) and then when given a chance to regroup in the minors or move to the bullpen to work things out he pouted and showed maybe his britches were a size or two too tight all along. So... mental fortitude plus a questioning of his "stuff" has me not nearly as concerned with losing Karns. Also in my mind the whole "4 years of control" is a but of a false dichotomy when applied to an unsure asset like Karns. Sure with a cemented MLB player like Seager was for years or like Correa or even a guy like Leonys Martin who is sure to at least have a MLB role you consider controllable years, but for guys who are just as likely to spend those controllable years in the minors and or hurt (read, most BOR pitching prospects ;) ) it isn't nearly as big of a thumb on the scale. Dyson is all but guaranteed to be a contributor for his entire controlled year here... Karns? Not at all. Did anyone weep over the lost controllable years when Ackley or Montero were power flushed?

THIS ^^

Doc loves him some Karns...I do see why, so I'm not ripping on Doc's judgment. I love Karns' stuff, but the dude looks like a woolly-headed candy-coated wuss-ball to me. After about ten starts, I'd seen enough of Karns.

Morrow

He's basically Brandon Morrow, who Doc also loved. Some guys *look* like All Stars all day long and put up *some* stats that indicate they should be...but they just never get the results. Time will tell if Karns is in that group but they obviously saw something in him they didn't like. Maybe he's not coachable?

B-Ref comps.

These are the most efficient base-stealers who stole more than .3 bases per game played in their age 27-31 seasons.

Player SB% SB WAR/pos G From To PA R 3B HR RBI CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
Rajai Davis 79.051% 200 5.9 618 2008 2012 2044 269 21 20 191 53 .270 .313 .379 .691 *87/H9D4 SFG-OAK-TOR
Vince Coleman 79.276% 241 6.8 504 1989 1993 2141 313 32 13 130 63 .271 .331 .361 .692 *7/8H9 STL-NYM
Gary Pettis 80.669% 217 14.7 660 1985 1989 2640 351 24 11 161 52 .239 .331 .305 .636 *8/HD CAL-DET
Davey Lopes 81.017% 239 16.2 570 1972 1976 2494 358 21 28 134 56 .261 .349 .359 .708 *4/86H95 LAD
Tim Raines 81.159% 224 19.9 678 1987 1991 2980 432 32 53 288 52 .288 .383 .421 .804 *7/HD89 MON-CHW
Gary Redus 81.928% 204 8.8 551 1984 1988 2088 314 21 44 169 45 .247 .341 .397 .738 *7/8H9D CIN-PHI-CHW-PIT
Joe Morgan 82.386% 290 43.7 761 1971 1975 3347 539 26 94 372 62 .290 .412 .466 .878 *4/H HOU-CIN
Jarrod Dyson 84.783% 156 11.5 506 2012 2016 1421 192 27 6 93 28 .264 .327 .355 .682 *8/H79D KCR
Willie Wilson 84.912% 242 11.6 708 1983 1987 3169 432 60 21 194 43 .280 .322 .379 .701 *8/7HD KCR
Tony Womack 85.113% 263 2.1 729 1997 2001 3254 442 45 23 223 46 .275 .319 .367 .686 469/H8 PIT-ARI
Rickey 85.211% 363 35.8 674 1986 1990 3056 558 16 91 279 63 .290 .402 .464 .866 *78/DH NYY-OAK

Provided by <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medi...">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/season_finder.cgi?utm_sourc...">View Play Index Tool Used</a><br>Generated 1/10/2017.

Lopes especially, though he played a different position, is Dysonish. 5'9" etc. Dodgers proceeded to make the Fall Classic in Lopes' Age-32 and Age-33 seasons.

This, from Fangraphs

As for Nate Karns, he is sleeper in all formats. My love for him exists because of his 9.3 K/9 as a starter. The strikeout rate places him in the company of Danny Duffy, Francisco Liriano, Chris Sale, and Kenta Maeda. Karns mixes three average pitches (fastball, change, and curve) to get the swings-and-misses.

Of the listed comps. Liriano compares to Karns as both walk too many batters. Karns posted a 4.3 BB/9 last season and a 3.8 BB/9 career rate. His value could skyrocket if the brings the walks down.

It's what Karns MIGHT do. And that's pretty nice stuff.

The argument can be this: We gave away a cost controlled/big upside starter for one year of a career 4th OF, with soft WAR, without a bat, who excels in the field in a park built for OF's to excel, one that suppresses fly ball/line drive productivity to a great degree (which Safeco largely does, too).

I think that's the basic concern.

and I like Moore a lot. given the chance he's going to be a fine thrower this year. It isn't that we can't replace Karns this year, but the Dyson payoff (the promised land) MUST come this season or it's a bad trade. They are all risky, I know. Two seasons ago, Karns was a fine MLB starter. Last season his FIP was actually lower than in '15.

The guy can chuck it when he's right.

I don't disagree...

The guy can chuck it when he's right.

I just doubt his ability to be "right". I see an almost 30 year old who has toiled at getting it right for a long time, has only sniffed at it for half a season in 2015, and even then only for 5 innings at a time.

I see a guy that doesn't so much have command, but pipes his average stuff down the tube, so sure he racks up plenty of k's, but also gives up a ton of hits, walks and HR. And then once the line up has seen him a time or two he is toast.

Further I see a guy who is mentally weak. Either he truly has a stamina / stuff issue to not get through the fifth, or he has gotten in his own head about it, and then when moved to the pen/minors he reacted even worse.

Not sure you can still be touting "Big Upside" on a guy who is about to enter his decline years! And again, why do the controllable years matter if they aren't productive, MLB years? We are certainly NOT stocked at SP, and yet Karns was no lock to even make our depleted rotation...

As I already said, I was no fan of Karns, so it makes it way easier for me to like the trade :)

Especially as our Cano/Cruz/Felix window closes the "Might Dos" on the team become much less important than the "Will Dos" Dyson WILL play great defense, he WILL steal bases and create runs on the base paths, and he WILL do it while being ok with a part time role (if that is what he ends up with) and while being a positive clubhouse presence.

Plus I think you are underrating his bat, It isn't like he is going to be a sub 300 OBP guy like a lot defensive whizzes we have had in the past. He won't hit a lot of homers it's true, but he had an OBP of .340 last year which would have been sixth best on the 2016 Mariners team...

Paradigm Shift?

There is an interesting article in Rotographs from November of last year by Eno Harris titled The Change: State of the Outfield that shows how, since 2000, outfield offensive production (wRC+) and power (ISO+) have declined relative to the league average, and speed as demonstrated by baserunning (BsR) has increased. So in this outfield configuration DiPoto is not blowing against the wind.

Good Stuff

Thanks lampoon!

I did a quick look at every AL playoff team going back 5 seasons, to 2012. That study indicates that OF production might be down overall, but it isn't with playoff teams.

In '16, Toronto, Baltimore and Boston had two principle OF above 110 OPS+. Cleveland had one and Texas had 0. The Rangers' top two OF's were at 104 and 93, albeit with 22 and 20 HR's.

In '15, Houston and KC had two above 110, the Yankees had 1 (and another at 103), Toronto had 1 (and another at 101), and Texas had 1.

In '14, KC, Det. and Oakland had 2. LAA had 3. Balt had 1 (and another at 104).

in '13, Boston had 3. TBR had 1 (another at 108), Det had 1 (another at 104), Oakland had 1 (another at 103). Cleveland was sort of the template for us, right now. They had 1 at 105, 1 at 91 and 1 at 88...with a total of 26 HR's between them!!

In '12, Balt had 3, Texas 2 (and anothr at 104), Oakland 2 (another at 107), Det. 2 and NY 2 (and another at 103).

So, of the last 25 AL playoff teams:

3 had 3 guys above 110 oPS+

12 had 2 above that mark

5 had 1 guy above 110, with another between 103 and 109.

3 had one guy above 110, and nobody else knocking on the door.

2 had nobody above 110, but Texas last year still had 42 HRs from their top 2 OF hitters, the best at 104 OPS+

And then there was Cleveland in '13, with 0: An OF of 105-91-88 with just 26 HR's. Combined, Brantly, Bourn and Stubbs were worth nearly 5dWAR...4.0 of those Brantley's. The Indians managed to be 4th i the league in runs, paced by Kipnis and Santana. They were 7th in runs allowed. They are our template.

So of the past 25 teams to make the playoffs in the AL, just 1 (4%) has had an OF that would look something like Dyson-Martin-Haniger, assuming Haniger is a 105 bat.

Texas in '15 was a bit like us...but Choo was at 125 and Deshields at 95. Martin was the next most used OF...he was at 55. Hamilton went down with injury at 94.

Winning AL teams still bring an OF with some thunder.

2017 offense

I'm not ecstatic about the lack of power in the OF, but I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt with our current infield construction. When I take a step back and look at the guys that have left versus the guys we added, I don't feel we'll be any worse in total runs scored.

Gone:Aoki,Guti,Smith,Lee,Lind and Marte New:Segura,Valencia,Haniger and Dyson all appear as good or better than most the guys that have left.

We'll keep our fingers crossed with Vogelback and Gamel but it's just a bonus if we get worthwhile numbers from one of them. I know the big three will likely regress some but I don't believe everyone is going to play to their bottom. I think we score 730+ runs and that's a win with our improved defense.

I'm just praying we add that MOR pitcher(not a 5th starter pile guy) to put us in a much needed better spot with the starting rotation, but I'm feeling peachy about the offense. I'm always too optimistic as we roll up on spring training I'm sure.