One item I would throw into the hopper is the "slow start" reality.
There are absolutely some players who take a while to get going, and this becomes a recurring pattern (self fulfilling prophecy?).
But, MLB *as a whole* generates lower offensive totals in April routinely. Typically, July and August are the "big bop" months. But, it's not an absolute. There are some years that don't show much skew from month to month, (2013 is actually one of them). But, when their is a BIG skew, it is almost always with early season offense suppressed and hot month offense spiking.
I suspect a large part of this is weather. It's "literally" the players (and balls ... and air) getting hotter. But, some of it is almost certainly getting back into a groove. That whole pattern recognition thing ... players come back after 6 months off and *some* will take longer than others to stop thinking so much.
My own view of Kendrys was always that 2009 was a like career year that was not his "true" profile. While the 34 HRs can easily be an abberation, (especially after getting only 9 in hits first 100 games in the bigs) ... the "tell" for me that Morales' power was WAY above Ichiro's was the double total. He got 34 HRs *AND* 43 doubles. Even if '09 is an outlier, there is simply too much pop required to hit 79 XBHs for it to completely vanish (without something like a back injury). He pretty much always looked like an .830 (ish) hitter to me, (the same way Morse has always looked more like a .770 guy).
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Kendrys' Basic Template: Coin-Op HIT Machine
The stock pattern here is not difficult and it's not controversial. Inside Pitch told us going in that we were getting "fat Ichiro." Morales has a "plus-plus" HIT tool and either (1) average, or (2) plus PWR - we don't know which.
Also he's slow. Verrrrry slow. .... loosely in Morales' template (bigger players with 70 HIT, 50-60 PWR) are Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, maybe Billy Butler, Michael Young, maybe Derek Jeter, Pablo Sandoval ... some better than Morales, some worse. Chris Sale is in Randy Johnson's template, but he's not as good.
Mauer, Martinez, Young, all those guys are very consistent from one year to the next. Also Kendrys Morales has not had an OPS+ below 120 since the 2009 season. We like the phrase, "Ichiro is who he is." From 2001-10, he was a coin-op machine. Morales' consistency is a key aspect of his player template.
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The Variation on the "Coin-Op" Position
The variable here is: how hard does Kendrys hit the ball?
Earlier this year, I was horrified. Kendrys was loading up, covering the pitch perfectly, and ... leaving the ball 10 yards in front of the warning track. In April, we were THIS close to writing an article condemning Morales to a 7-homer season -- and in that scenario, of course, you don't want Morales anywhere near your roster for any reason. A .290-hitting DH who is super slow with no power to speak of... what's that, Jose Vidro?
In fact Chad Young wound up writing a super article, Early Batted Ball Distance Gainers and Losers. Morales' "average" BIP last year was 286 feet ... early this year it was (wait for it)
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246 feet.
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A John Olerud scenario? I had no way to tell. How would you tell?
But! May rolled around, and Kendrys started putting some steam on his swings. ::WHEW:: He slugged .598 in May, and Dr. D wiped his brow. By sheer luck, he'd avoided another Brandon Maurer-class humiliation.
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2013 As a Roller Coaster
Morales cooled off some in June, but then in July caught fire again, and in a different way. His timing now, his plate coverage, is truly Ichiro-like. On his 4-hit day, August 2, he wastes four different pitches to four different directions -- including a long CF home run off a high fastball. You gotta watch this video. Ichiro with plus power.
You've got two basic explanations. Either are possible:
- Morales is just hot at the moment.
- Morales is finally getting into his 2009 rhythm after his catastrophic leg injury.
Whether Morales were a Mariner or not, I wouldn't quickly dismiss the second explanation. He is a big, soft, happy-go-lucky guy (like Freddy Garcia) and those kind of guys often take a looooonnnnngggg time to get comfortable with repaired bodies. You'll remember Freddy's phantom limp after his own broken leg...
In that second scenario, May 2013 would have been the month in which he started testing his sea legs. He ran into some rhythm problems (in June) with the 'newness' of his ambitious approach, but in July he consolidated and will now stay at that level.
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Morales was taking wimpy, pansy little swings at the ball in March and April, but now he's tearing into pitches with gusto. His 2014-16 seasons, in BaseballHQ terms:
- UP: 2009 (.300, 35 HR, .500-.550 SLG)
- MID: .290/.350/.475 (every year other than 2009)
- LO: He gets old early, like Sexson
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2013 Second Half: Batted Ball Distance
I don't have access to Morales' general batted ball distance splits :- ) or to his BIP velocities, which are SABRMatt's new favorite toy. ... It's pretty obvious that he no longer has a problem with it, like he did in March and April. Is he now plus with it? I dunno.
Here are his Home Run Tracker distances for 2013. That chart below, there, that's plenty 'nuff CF shots to put a bridge over Dr. D's troubled waters. In May and July, he has shown way "Plus" power.
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Posters' R/X
What do you think? Is Morales just now getting back to pre-broken leg form, or are we talking about a hot streak?