1
I think you nailed this one again, D. He'll be fine when he's fine. And that will happen again real soon. At least that's what this boxscore reading netizen thinks.
.
Q. How bad has Iwakuma been, his last 5 starts?
A. 29 innings, 22 earnies ... 19 strikeouts, 5 walks. But, as you know, 10 homers in those five starts, and he got KO'ed in the fourth, last time out.
As bad stretches go, that one's not tragic ... every pitcher will have a 5- or 8-game stretch in which his ERA is seven plus. Iwakuma's overall ERA for the season is still much better than, say, Justin Verlander's. Verlander's ERA was 6.41 in May. Doesn't prove he's a meatball.
.
Q. So MLB(TM) has caught up to him?
A. This is Iwakuma's first stretch of ANYTHING --- > [less than Maddux-like performance], since he went into the rotation last year. A lot of people now assume that 'Merika has now exposed him.
Remember when they did that to Ichiro in 2002? And 2003? And 2005? And...
Ichiro would win an MVP, or get 260 hits, and then the very next April he'd hit .240 and, I kid you not, people would wring their hands that the league had finally figured him out. Happened every year for ten years in a row.
.
Q. Let's see... 10 homers in 5 games. That is bad luck on the HR/Fly stat, or he's really giving up taters?
A. Of those 10 homers, either 8 or 9 came on batting-practice pitches.
I think on Pedroia's homer, Zunino located the mitt low-away, off the plate, and Iwakuma missed up and in, 88 MPH. Pedroia turned it to space dust. That has been the way with every Iwakuma tater: misses his spot by a mile with mushy stuff.
The only exception, that I've noticed, the ball that Napoli hit. Iwakuma looked to have thrown a nice slider, knee-high, and Napoli took it out to right-center.
.
Q. How come Iwakuma is making mistakes now?
A. Starting five games ago, his command has been WAY off. We just hadn't written it up yet, but it's been glaring.
His first 30 starts, or whatever, he was just that sharp. He had a higher % of well-located pitches than anybody we've seen, anybody other than maybe Moyer or Maddux. He avoided taters because he was just hitting the mitt so routinely .... which set up his strikeout dance, of course, "ladder" fastballs and sliders juuusssst off the plate and so forth. Now the whole dance is jerky and not happenin'.
.
Q. His strikeouts are down because of the lack of command?
A. For a guy who doesn't live in Seattle (?), Michael Barr did a pretty good job of triangulating the reasons for Iwakuma's high strikeout totals.
When Iwakuma's ahead in the count, he is as poisonous as a viper, with all those paper-cut pitches he has. But as you've noticed, he hasn't been ahead in the count. It is NOT a STUFF issue. It's a COMMAND issue.
By the way, Iwakuma himself was asked about it, asked what's happenin'. He said, "I haven't hit my spots." People kind of blinked and moved on....
.
Q. Maybe they need to take him out of the rotation? Send him back to Japan? Give him a coaching job with the Cubs?
A. For all that, he's still striking out 6+ men per game, still has a 4:1 command ratio during the slump. The slump, the consistent "B- game," has been enough to make him hittable. He's been giving up 4 runs every start. But he still cobbles 7 innings out there through guts and guile. If he has his B game again next start, he'll probably go 6-7 innings and allow 2-4 runs.
Like we sez, you average all of his starts, he's #7 in the league in ERA. Max Scherzer's 13-0, and his aggregate ERA is higher than Iwakuma's.
Iwakuma's xFIP, that is, what his ERA "should" be with normal luck and fielding, is 3.32 on the year. Lower than Verlander's, Sabathia's, Fister's, and Lester's. Because those pitchers have rough starts too.
.
Q. Maybe his shoulder is hurting?
A. Maybe, but he doesn't look like he's in pain to me, for what that's worth. His Fangraphs velocity chart is also reassuring:
He only threw 60-some pitches last time; perhaps that will re-set him.
.
Q. Why would his command be off, then.
A. Pitchers go through this, man. Ever watched a season, all 162 games?
It's Iwakuma who has seemed like a coin-op machine. He'll get back to his game.
.
Q. Is he capable of correcting himself? ... Whoops that sounded stupid before it even came out of my mouth...
A. That's all right; you're not a real interviewer.
Iwakuma corrected himself in 2012. It was us who made an artificial distinction between Iwakuma The Reliever and Iwakuma The Starter. In the first half of 2012, especially in spring training, he had some sharpening up to do.
Iwakuma, and Maddux, and Moyer, they don't overpower hitters. Their games are WHOLLY BASED on being as sharp as a razor, every single pitch. A small difference in sharpness for those guys is +2.00 in ERA.
You remember how Jamie Moyer needed to throw 20 good pitches in a row? He couldn't afford one hanging 87 MPH fastball (like the one Iwakuma threw to Pedroia). Iwakuma's margin for error is a little better than that, but still. He's gotta execute, and execute consistently.
He will. He's been doing so, since he was about 21 years old.
.
Q. Where's he going to settle in at, next three years?
A. Assuming his shoulder holds up, you mean? Top-10, top-12, maybe top-15 starter in the American League. We at SSI never bought the idea that Iwakuma is 100.00% a Greg Maddux, that he's better than Felix, that he's a legit Cy Young winner, etc. He just isn't that good; his stuff is only average-solid and his SwStr% is a little bit over his head this year.
He could be as good as 1997-2005 Jamie Moyer, for the next few years. That's saying a lot! You're talking about a #2 starter for a World Series winner.
It's not like he's going to forget how to hit the mitt. It's what he does. I don't mean "it's what he does" in the cliche sense; I mean that command and location are a skill set. Command is a craft and technique that Hisashi Iwakuma has completely mastered, right down to the body control part of it.
Fascinating to see him hit a rough spot. Will be even more fascinating to see him solve it. If you listen to him closely, you'll hear him fret about the way he's carrying his weight, the way he's landing, etc. He's been physically a bit off center.
.
Q. When will he solve it?
A. Assuming he doesn't need 15 days off ... probably (p > .50) next start.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
2
Few months back I believe I was the one who questioned exactly how good Iwakuma was going to be precisely because of his nominally high HR/9 rate, (1.2 last year).
His "problem" has ALWAYS been the long ball. Of course, that problem produced a 9-5; 3.16 2012 line (16 starts), and a 7-4; 2.97 line this year (19 starts, but nearly identical innings).
But, in all honesty, I have actually flipped my position a bit. I think "some" of his HR problem is self-induced ... in that he's been giving up "too many" HRs because he could afford to.
For me, the defining trait for 2013 isn't the HRs ... it's the walks. 3.1/9 last season, 1.3 this year. Basically, he is REFUSING to nibble, and it is costing him. With his control, he doesn't have to nibble much ... but he does need to adapt to the MLB paradigm of power. Despite his age and experience, in many ways, he is in exactly the same place the Felix was in 2006 at age 20. Armed with a tonne of talent, but lacking the experience to understand when it is "wise" to rely on the talent and when it is wise to let the opponent get himself out (or walk).
At this point, I am perfectly willing to buy into Iwakuma as a genuine top 20 in the Majors pitching "talent". All he needs to do is learn just a bit of the Miguel Batista wisdom of when to challenge and when to nibble, (just like Felix had to learn).
So, to a degree, yes, I think the league has "figured him out". But, with a 1.3 walk rate, he's currently got MORE than enough room to adjust and still put up an ERA around 3.00.
Some notes on "when" he's getting smacked.
12 of his 20 HRs allowed were to the leadoff hitter in an inning. (15 of 20 were with bases empty)
His slashline against leadoff inning hitters: .258/.294/.608 (.902). In his 126 PAs to start an inning, he has allowed 12 HRs and only allowed 6 walks.
His OPS against is actually WORST on the 1st pitch (.949) than on 1-0 (.867) or 2-0 (.929) counts. On full counts, (.775), he's actually allows only 1 HR in 34 PAs. Basically, he is hyper-uber aggressive on the first pitch to the first batter every inning. It's not a major adjustment to simply be "a little" less adamant about getting that first strike - depending on who is at the plate. Especially nibble when high-K guys are up - let them (knowing this tendency) strike themselves out by fishing.
Me? I think he can definitely make the adjustment. He's very intelligent. But his pattern indicates two dimension thinking. :)
He just needs dial back the ego a bit on that first pitch and I think he'll remain an All Star.
3
12 of his 20 HRs allowed were to the leadoff hitter in an inning. (15 of 20 were with bases empty)
His slashline against leadoff inning hitters: .258/.294/.608 (.902).
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/looks-like-league-solved-hisashi...
.
That definitely matches what the eye is seeing out there. We had a vague feeling that at times he over-challenged, but couldn't put the finger on when, exactly. Thanks.
As you mention, it seems like that would be correctable -
4
Sandy - How do you generate the count data?
5
tjm,
Almost every stat I get comes from bbref. It tends to load more quickly than most of the other sites, (less graphic intensive), and when I'm perusing from my work location, bbref is one of the few stat sites not blocked by our firewall.
The "splits" data is available for players for individual years as well as career. This is where I pull count info. I use Fangraphs occasionally, but find bbref just a better site for my needs.