Luis Sardinas in already, huh?
go with Rizzs or Drayer? decisions, decisions

.

Jim Carrey's on-screen son asked him, "Is it true that if you make a face, your face can get stuck that way?"  Carrey was truthful.  "Some people make a handsome living that way."

SSI makes a handsome living Reading Between the Lines, as do SSI's readers.  Between the 9,000 of us we can usually figure out that when Rick Rizzs gives us a March 3 eulogy for Chris Taylor, he's tipping his bosses' pitches.  Talented young kid like Taylor needs a full season's worth of swings, don'cha know.  Read:  hit .450 in Arizona or go back and Re Establish Val Ue, keed.

That may be true.  Dr. D is not scoffing at the idea.  But Luis Sardinas was born later than Chris Taylor, and by about three years.  So, whatever.  Could be that Sardinas has time yet to learn how to hit .270 with that three to one grounder ratio of his.

Prospect Insider forecasts our backup shortstop as ... wait for it ... Shawn O'Malley.  The thinking is that this provides the manager options.  Well, all but the shortstop option, right?  Are you mooks telling me that Shawn O'Malley can play shortstop when Nick Franklin cannot?

:- O

In any case, Shannon Drayer has a vid of Sardinas' big hit today.   That is, ONE of his big hits.  We notice that Sardinas has the famed SLOW bat that Bill James recommends.  And indeed the slow bat is the reductio ad absurdum for Royals baseball.  The game does need more old-timey batters.  Question is, will Sardinas go with the 45 ounces' worth of wood while he's at it.

....

Stefen Romero with two plate appearances today:  one hit and one walk.  Obviously the kid can follow instructions.  That's half of the essay, getting your name top right and hearing the teacher out.  Nice call Moe :- )

Sez here that Romero still has an option left.  Din't know that.

....

Here's a little Ball Four-type clubhouse anecdote from Brent Stecker.

....

SSI:  reading live writer chats so you don' have to.  A few of her opinions, which might or might not be gospel, but more likely are.  NOTE:  Characterizations are the sole responsibility of Dr. D.

1) Franklin Gutierrez decides whether Franklin Gutierrez will back up in CF.  He will probably veto it.  Ahhhhh ... ok.  Special medical case, then?

2) The difference in "technique" and fundamentals is real.  Insider tip:  that's because the M's were a laughingstock in 2015.  See NOTE.

3) Your guess at the Karns / Paxton duel is as good as anybody's.  (Dr. D also cannot read Ser-vice too well on this one.)

4) Cruz isn't a big worry.

5) Oh yeah!  Shifts.  Wasn't in the chat but the M's have indicated they'll be ahead of the curve.  Which means four shifts per inning, roughly.

6) With the Brett Anderson news, the Dodgers can't be real happy about chiseling WBC-san.

7) Dae-Ho Lee isn't much with the glove at 1B?  Say huh?  But, interestingly, we find out (12:51 mark) that Montero is still taking drills as a first stringer.

8) Oh!  Here's one writer guessing that Chris Taylor WILL back up at short.  12:38 mark.

8a) Guess there was that they will go with defense at 1B.  Ummmm... is that consistent with a Lee signing?  Is it too late for Casey Kotchman?

9) Oh yeah.  That reminds us.  On TV, Ser-vice said that Cishek "starts as our closer."

10) Very readable chat.  Nice goin'.

BABVA,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

Sardinas is a new toy;  I think some people are pretty dang enamored of it.  He's sparkly and cute.  In the end, I think, we will decide he isn't quite as fun as our Taylor or O'Malley toy.

Doc, you're dead on about Sardinas and his slooooow swing through the zone.  You can see it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyWkmtWiZJo

He almost stops the bat on some swings and just waits to flick at the ball.  Such an approach should equal some bleeder hits, a few down the line doubles and a bunch of tough outs,  Maybe.  But in the bigs Sardinas is K'ing 4 times as often as he BB's.  That isn't an anomaly as he's K'ing more than 3 times as often in AAA.  OK, I will admit that he's only 22, fair enough.  But at AA (age 20-21) he K'ed nearly 5 times as often.  In the video I linked above, he seems to see a steady diet of off-speed stuff.  He's worse from the RH side than he is from the LH side, so he has that bit going for him. However, I'm willing to bet that he gets out in front of slurvey offerings, trying to get the bat in the zone, and then has a hard time not "flicking" at the bendy stuff out of the zone.  

He's a career .285-.315-.365 AAA hitter.  Was worse in AA.

Chris Taylor?  With the bat at the MLB level you have to decide if last season's "Ooops" was nothing to worry about, considering his much more extensive success in '14 AND his really nice AAA pedigree?  OK, Taylor strikes out 4 times as often as he walks in the bigs, but at the AAA lever that number is about 1.5.  His .313-.394-.460 AAA line is pretty sweet.  Compare it to Montero's .302-.360-.506 and you can sit up and take notice pretty quickly.

If we compare bats to bats, it looks like Taylor is the clear winner.  But gloves?

Well, there isn't much difference in the numbers anyway.  Across all the minors, Sardinas runs a .947 Fld& at SS with a 4.28 Rf/9.  Taylor is .950 and 4.48.  Sardinas is .966 and (an impressive) 5.05 in the bigs, Taylor .953 and 4.43.  Sardinas' 5.05 is a SSS blip, just because it is SO far above his established rate.  It is possible that Sardinas is slightly betteer with the glove at SS.  Maybe.  Taylor seems to make all the plays, IIRC.

There seems to be some mention that Sardinas has the edge as he plays 3B and Taylor doesn't.  I think it is more that Sardians has played it some (7 MLB starts/35 appearances) and Taylor hasn't (1 MLB appearance).  Surely a glovey SS can pick it a bit at 3B.  He started there the other day, remember.

Neither, BTW, plays CF and that is a hole that we also have.  And so in jumps (possibly) Shawn O'Malley.  O'Malley can hit some, as we've seen (and Dipoto, too....with LAA), plays 2B and 3B.  Also had 88 SS starts in AA in '13, 53 more at AAA in '14 and 7 more for Tacoma last year.  He had, btw, 10 CF starts for Seattle last year and did just ducky.  Ooooh!  He plays all the positions, doesn't he.  He's Bloomie with a bat.

We're a CF short, unless Marte goes there when Martin sits.  Aoki hasn't played CF since '13 (9 innings).  He did have 10 starts there in '12.  All the same, he's unlikely to get CF time once the season starts.  Dipoto really values CF defense, remember.  Guti seems to be out of the CF mix.  We're in a bit of flux there guys. Too tell you the truth, we are one Aoki and Smith over the limit (if Guti isn't a CF).

His flexiblity gives O'Malley the inside track.  That and he's a pretty good stick.  Were Sardinas, Taylor, or Marte to get some CF innings in the next couple of weeks then you might see a different equation developing.  I said that we would see Romero at 1B AND that he would get some CF look-sees, as well.  If he gets any CF times, then we may be seeing a roster move developing.

And if Herschel Mack Powell hits in ST, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a quick call-up and Seth Smith or Aoki finds themselves with a tweaked hammy.

Lind, Guti, Cruz, Aoki & Smith mean that 40% of out glovey, easily predicted 25-man roster ONLY play 1B or COF.  It's why Montero isn't making the team.  If Lee rakes, then you really are compromised by all the COF/1B spots.

Here's a question to consider:  Could O'Malley or Powell get on base 35% of the time AND play a better COF than Aoki (-1.3 AND -0.5 the last two seasons) or Smith (a minus EVERY year of his career)?  If so, well then......

I love Aoki's reverse split (.321-.376-.400 vs LHP for his career, better last year), but the .800 vR that you can figure Smith for sure beats Aoki's .720, or so.

But flexability is a concern right now for us.  I'm sure Dipoto and Servais are paying it some concern.  More than some, in fact.

Unless Lee goes all Matsui on ST, then Romero is making the club.  And I'm willing to bet we give more and more consideration to less and less of a platoon role for Guti (and more of a 75% guy), if he looks reasonably whole.

I know that Matt will say, "Noooooooo!" but there remains a path to Seth Smith being swapped out. It wouldn't be short-sighted either (although debatable) as it would allow us to have a fulltime IF utility guy AND a 4th OF who goes (easily) to CF.

Nothing wrong with that.  I'm not advocating, really, just pointing out the lay of the land.

Moe

  

2

And he shows the ability to slow the bat down more on an offspeed pitch, like Ichiro used to.

Am intrigued by James' opinion that the game needs a lot more players who can do this.  Will be watchable.  +1

3

... if there were some reason to suspect that his game doesn't match up to ML pitches, I'd say yeah.  But going down a list of 15 such possibilities, he seems to score 0 on all of them to me, FWIW.  Would therefore go to the (very common) idea that it simply takes a while to learn to hit major league pitching.

Has been a big topic of conversation this winter, that the Royals stuck with players three, four YEARS in order to reap the benefits.  With us, Smoak & Ackley & Saunders & Co.  You can't "stick with" everybody, but Chris Taylor would be at the top of my sticky note...

4

It's a funny thing but this "UZR-first" WAR orientation was all the rage five years ago, with Chavez and Kotchman etc.  Back in the day, USSM would have taken it as a given that O'Malley should play over Seth Smith if not even Nelson Cruz (salaries factored in).

Odd that we haven't heard ZIP about a UZR/WAR "moneyball" corner OF.  That's how far the pendulum has swung.  But then again, both Aoki and Smith speak to DiPoto's grand theme of Control the Zone.

5

And today, Sardinas gets time, off the bench, in CF.  Very interesting.

Moe

6

When DiPoto first came in, the word was that the M's experiments in CF (Logo, Romero for a game, O'Malley, Ruggiano, Ackley) were part of their 'disjoint,' their lack of understanding of a usable roster.

Now that Leonydas is there, we're getting anybody and everybody considered as backups.  LOL.

Not saying it's wrong, but it's amusing.

.....

Dave Sims opined yesterday that if Sardinas looks acceptable in CF, then he is flat-out on the team.

7

And Smith brings a vR bat.  But I dislike the idea that Sardinas backs up FOUR positions!  However, if he's got some CF chops, then having a guy like Romero, who has experience everywhere EXCEPT SS, as the VL 1B makes sense.

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