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The Mainframe can barely contain its admiration for Tacoma Rainier-level starting pitchers. Dillon Overton, Christian Bergman, Chase De Jong, Sam Gaviglio, Cody Martin, Ryan Weber? All of these pitchers are absolutely excellent! ... in absolute terms, that is. Also, they do everything pretty much the same, and at the same level.
One time I played a round of golf with a fringe-Tour player. This guy looked so much like a professional! It was hard to understand how he could play any better. I asked why he didn't get on TV. He said, "I'm a great golfer, Jeff, but to be on the Tour you have to be a --- > Magician."
The Mainframe's paradigm is that SP's who stick in the American League have bread-and-butter skills that very clearly separate them from AAA pitchers. (The alternative would be that they're 2% better at doing the same things?)
Here are my personal takes at Mike Leake's clear Separators. He's got -1 bad separator, a thing he does much worse than Cody Martin. But he's got +3 good ones. Thusly:
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-1, PITCHES ON THE SAME PLANE AS THE BAT
Leake is sidearm, and this release point is just about as (annoyingly) low as you will see in the big leagues, wayyyyy below 6 feet:
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And on the other end of the line, notice that it is very common for Leake to leave the ball up, waist high:
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So instead of "throwing downhill," Mike Leake throws the ball such that it --- > automatically "keeps the bat in the zone" a long time for the hitter, without his even trying. This is a terrible, terrible flaw; I'd peg it as being worth -20 points of ERA+ all by its ownself. Maybe it's what keeps Mike Leake from being the young Jered Weaver.
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FIRST POSITIVE SKILL: SNAKE-TONGUE CUTTER
Leake throws his fastball 90 MPH and it has a lovely break on it, 2x10 compared to the usual 5x8. It swerves armside and drops compared to other sinkers. But! Against this pitch he has a cut fastball that also travels a full 90 MPH and its break is 4x0. In other words, his cut fastball swerves gloveside a full 10 inches (!!) relative to his sinking fastball while losing no velocity at all:
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That is one WHALE of a power slider, when you get 10" of gloveside break at a full 90 MPH. If Christian Bergman could throw one of these, he'd be likely to stick in the majors too. Cut fastballs are definitely one of the coins of the realm.
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TWO: A HEAVY FASTBALL AND HEAVY SLIDER
By "heavy" they mean a fastball crawls up the handle of a hitter's bat, and drops a bit, giving the effect of "blonking" the ball off the bottom of the handle a little bit. Leake's regular armside sinker, thrown to RH batters, is the definition of this (and Leake's actual groundball rate is nearly 55%, as if he were Jake Westbrook or somebody). Leake's power cutter/slider, thrown to lefties, is also the definition of this.
If Chase De Jong could throw a platinum-heavy sinker to both hand hitter, he'd be good too.
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As a completely separate issue, it is FUN to watch Leake do this. There is a huge visible "Nintendo" effect to his pitches from the CF camera. He winds, he throws, the ball comes in ... and then dives like a spitball. Rare to watch more of a consistent Nintendo effect on any pitch.
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THREE: VINTAGE ECK PITCHABILITY
Leake's "rhythm and attack" is almost funny to watch, because if you didn't know better you would swear he wasn't thinking about anything. Grab the ball, take the sign, kick the leg and touch his belly button with the ball, huck it in the general direction of home plate. His PACE is dialed up to 11.
But the truth is, Mike Leake is consistently "on" to the batter's aggressiveness. If the batter is studying, gauging, thinking, BOOM he takes strike one. If the batter is aggressive, BOOM here's less of the plate for you.
Leake didn't come up with the St. Louis Cardinals but pitch after pitch I visualize that uniform on his back. Some guys just radiate wisdom. By "some guys" we don't mean Mariner pitchers. Mike Leake's stuff is about a 4 on the 1-for-10 scale but his command, movement, and professionalism is a 9 on the 1-10 scale.
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UND TAKE ZIS MIT YOU
Personally I had been worried that Leake's career arc would be fraying at the edges ... that it would be juuuuuuust cresting its hill and ready to ski down an ever-increasing slope. However:
√ His 8.5% swinging strike (fishing) rate is easily a high water mark for him, ever. Look at his career trend on fishing
√ His O-Swing (deception, see-ability) rate is (less) easily his best this year
√ He is, after all, a reliable 1+ BB pitcher who does NOT get splattered, never has
√ His career xFIP of 3.82 is lower than his career ERA of 3.99,
Leake has toiled for 8 years in the NL with mundane weapons and made it work. I could see the "novelty" of the American League actually freshening his results in this specific case. Leake's 3.78 xFIP since 2011 is bunched in a group with:
- Homer Bailey
- Jose Quintana
- Francisco Liriano
- Rick Porcello
- Scott Kazmir
- James Shields
For me? the question will be this one question, "Is Mike Leake our #3 starter or is he our #4." As a three starter he is very, very yawnable. But as a 4 starter he would be one whale of a plus pitcher.
My $0.02,
Dr D
