POTD Mitch Haniger, CF-OF
Mantis! You need more suddenness

Originally published 11/23/16.  There are a lot of Denizens with beatific looks on their faces about this player.  Here are those media links again for your enjoyment.  Comments section is also well worth a re-read. :- )

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Q.  What is the difference between Ackley-Smoak-Montero, versus Vogelbach-Haniger-Gamel?

A.  About 8 or 9 OPS points in their final pre-MLB seasons?

No, actually, it's amusing that Dipoto now has his own trifecta of AAA POY noodles to throw against the wall.  They lack the class-A ball pedigrees, but also lack the Michael Pineda-esque price tags attached.  Jack Zduriencik gave up Cliff Lee, Pineda and the #2 overall to get his 1000 OPS bush leaguers.  Dipoto got his for pennies on the dollar -- admittedly Dipoto's three didn't tromp through the low minors with top-25 labels attached, but it's worth noticing he got the same AAA performances.

Looking forward to the, um, prospect of seeing one of Dipoto's three hotshots pan out.

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Q.  Can Haniger play center?

A.  Well, this isn't a POTD.  At least not in the melodramatic 6-parter sense.  But a picture's worth 1,000 words.  Watch him play it on THIS gapper.

The gappers seem to be almost a given with Haniger, so here is a nice one that classifies as over his head.   John Dewan has him as +7 outs last year in 180 center field innings -- twenty games -- with most of his plus coming on deep balls, which is cool.

At a first glance it looks pretty good that he could potentially be middle-of-the-pack or even better among starting CF's.  At a first glance.

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Q.  What does Jerry Dipoto mean by "high upside"?

A.  Last year at age 25 in a hitter's park, Mitch Haniger had a Ted Williams season -- near .700 SLG, an OBP way over .400.   

One possibility is just that he's 25 in a hitter's park, having a Jack Cust stroll through the league.  That possibility is real, and the reason that Haniger didn't cost James Paxton.

Still, a .670 SLG in the PCL is nothing to sneeze at.  They throw 12-6 curve balls there, throw 96 MPH fastballs.  Last year nobody in the PCL slugged .600, and only one guy slugged over .550.  We thought we had an ML-ready hitter in Dan Vogelbach, who slugged .505 with an OBP lower than Haniger's.

"High upside" would be for this kid to be a middle-of-the-order hitter in the bigs, playing center field, and for Jerry Dipoto to spend the next seven years preening like a peacock over the heist of a Great White Whale (a club-controls 5 WAR player).  See the Fangraphs article below that sees a good chance for Haniger to become a better player than Jean Segura.

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Q.  What does the Mainframe grok about the swing?

A.  He's relaxed and vertical at release, with quiet hands, and then he EXPLODES his CG to the incoming energy.  Do you guys remember Eric Davis?  He would do that - loose and jangly and quiet until the ball was in flight, and then he launched his soul at the ball wherever it was in the strike zone.

Personally I fancy this "sudden burst" of CG contact, as I fancy the "Mantis" kung fu style.  As do pro boxers.  it's no guarantee of success; just saying I enjoy the "Mantis style CG" sports motion.

Here's an example on MLB.com.  Watch the quietness as the ball comes off the pitcher's hand and then the extreme "CG attachment" to the down-in location.  This is whence the lead-in photo, BTW.  Haniger practically launches his face into the strike zone to intercept the ball ...

Here's a long power-alley blast off of an inside 93 fastball on an 0-1 count.  He pulls his hip back and tucks his right (bottom) elbow to create clearance for the swing, and does it a real hurry.

In this one he leans wayyyyyyyyyyy in :: susan sarandon, enchanted :: to cover an offspeed pitch.

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Q.  What's the word from a scouting standpoint?

A.  Dave Cameron at Fangraphs does a real good job, it says here, of putting his finger on the "inside" book.  Bobby Tewksbury was the guy credited with Josh Donaldson's explosion and Fangraphs speculates that perhaps Tewksbury's approach did the same in 2016 for Haniger.

From a more technical standpoint, the article quotes a PRE-2016 scout as saying

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While big-league pitchers were able to exploit Haniger’s vulnerability to pitches down and away during his late-season cup of coffee, he’s an above-average runner with plus raw power. Players with that tool combination aren’t exactly easy to come by. Haniger was demoted to High-A as a 24-year old in 2015 after slugging a paltry .379 for Double-A Mobile. It looked like bad news to those of us on the outside who thought the Diamondbacks were souring on him, but in reality Haniger proactively told the D-backs he’d accept a demotion if it meant he could play every day which, with prospects Evan MarzilliSocrates Brito and Gabriel Guerrero also in Mobile by mid-year, wasn’t going to happen at Double-A. Haniger made a swing change (profiled hereand here by excellent D-backs beat writer Nick Piecoro) and took off. You can see the old swing here.

Scouts are a little bit apprehensive about Haniger’s propensity to swing and miss and think there’s a good chance he either ends up as a platoon bat or power-first fourth outfielder who can play center field in a pinch. Given Haniger’s purported makeup and clear ability to make significant adjustments, I think there’s a non-zero chance he’s a late-blooming average regular but it’s more likely he falls just short of that. The Diamondbacks acquired Haniger along with Anthony Banda from Milwaukee in exchange for Gerardo Parra.

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Then, of course, Haniger had the .340/.430/.670 season and the "late-developing star track" narrative emerged:

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For Haniger, the changes were borne from a question: Why was it that other hitters who weren’t as big or as strong as he was were able to drive the ball to the opposite field with more authority? He began studying swings of players like Josh Donaldson and A.J. Pollock and read up on the hitting philosophies of Bobby Tewksbary, a coach who helped both of those hitters develop into All-Stars.

“I feel like now I’m able to recognize pitches better,” Haniger said. “I can make up my mind whether to swing or not later than I have in the past because my swing is deeper in the zone. I’m able to stay off close pitches. It’s easier for me to use all fields and to see pitches better.”

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Gordon's quick-take comment was, in case you missed it,

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Mitch Haniger is ANOTHER decent-glove, kinda-tweener outfielder who has played all 3 positions, but his minor league statline is even prettier than Gamel's.  DiPoto really wants to build that glove OF of productive hitters Royals-style, with O'Neill anchoring it from an offensive perspective moving forward.  Haniger is one of those late-bloomers who looks like he might be putting it together.  He's ready for more than a cup of coffee in the bigs.

Edit to add, G-Money (in the Napoli thread) had a second take that was even more fun to read.  ... thoughts seem to be jelling that Haniger has a real shot to be the best player in the deal.  ... guess this is the kind of thing that happens to new GM's ;- )

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Q.  SSI Best Bet?

A.  Not on your life.  Not even saying I like him better than the next guy likes him.  Well, I like him better than whoever at MLB.com slotted him in as the org's new #14 prospect.  LOL.

But I do like, very much, the MLB-ready trio of Mitch Haniger, Dan Vogelbach and Ben Gamel, for the prices they were acquired at.  Very savvy, JeDi.  Focusing on their (recent) performances, rather than focusing on their pedigrees, is the essence of sabermetrics.

Cheers,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

OK...the guy finally hit as a 25 year old AA'er.  Alert: His really bashing numbers came in the Cali League and in Reno.  Brendan Ryan Slugs .470 in Reno.  :)

But this is what I quite like about him: 

1. The leg kick.

2. The way he "squats" into a pitch.  I think it was Sam Snead who said this was the shortest path to power.  Tiger Woods was incredible at it, before he broke.  Guys who do it naturally, seem to have more velocity off the bat than first-looks indicate.

3. This is DiPoto's Ozuna trade, or I bet that's what he sees the upside as.  And he got it as a throw in.  

4. It would be interesting to know if this guy was something DiPoto said that Airzona had to throw in..  I'm betting.  If so, then it may say a bunch about DiPoto's confidence in Heredia.  Homers may have spoken to him.

5. Across three levels last year, Haniger went all Lou Gehrig on LHP:  .374-.466-.633.  That'll do, Pig.

I'm betting that he's on the 25-Man coming out of ST.  He's the platoon guy for Smith.  Hey, we did get younger! And Smith may be the caddy for an early Tank call-up.  

As we speak....We look something like this.

OF:  Gamel-Martin-Smith/Haniger

1B: Vogelbach and Valencia

DH: Cruz

IF: Seager-Segura-Cano-O'Malley/Freeman/Motter (take your pick)

C: Zunino-Ruiz

That would be 13 guys, guys.

2

I will definitely be watching to see how the old guard of M's prospects (O'Neill, Alex Jackson, Peterson, Drew Jackson, Liberato, Braden Bishop, and Chris Torres) competes and develops when compared to this new group that Dipoto has brought in (Haniger, Powell, Vogelbach, Gamel, Shaffer, Motter and Kyle Lewis).

Either way, that is a lot of position player prospects coming through the farm system.

3

O'Neill yes.  He seems to be developing well.  I would trade both Alex AND Drew Jackson for a decent AA starting pitcher. Liberato I'm watching, but I dislike Bishop with a dash of extra prejudice.

OTOH I think Lewis is great, if he can recover from that devastating knee injury.  We'll see around June. It definitely sets him back. however.  

5

Drew Jackson is dreaming of being Willie Bloomquist, and I hate putting eggs in that basket.  It's fine as a fallback position, and you want those guys in your system as downside hedges, but let's not built a handful of spots around them at the top of the prospect list, y'know?  Jackson, Braden Bishop the CF, even Donnie Walton from this year's draft are all good guys, had standout standout college careers, are leaders and gamers and gritty... and they're all fighting to be 80-85 OPS+ glove-men.

Kyle Lewis, OTOH, is a stud who had his knee shredded by a catcher and I might have thrown something when I heard about it.  I still believe in Kyle (heck, I follow him on Twitter: his rehab is progressing nicely) but if it derailed his career it would only be par for the course.  Lewis has that Snelling-level of special Something in him, so hopefully he can avoid a Snelling-level of injuries and heartbreak.

Rendon (aka the guy we passed up to draft Hultzen who has similar Snelling-like properties) has been a really good player when healthy. Here's hoping Lewis can follow that example instead and get back on track around June of this year, getting good work in for half a season. The delay sucks but at least the Mariners don't play on Astroturf anymore. It's his back leg in the batters box, not his leading leg, so that shouldn't hurt his swing as much either.  

Just looking for rays of hope - that's what you do when your top prospect detaches his lower leg from his upper one and grinds his meniscii to dust in the process. But yeah I still believe in Lewis.

We can sell off all our Bloomquists though.

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Sports Fan's picture

Like him better than both Vogelbach and Gamel. Better swing, better D, potential regular in the OF with power upside.

I think hes a keeper. LOVE it. :-)

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Taro's picture

Like him better than both Vogelbach and Gamel. Better swing, better D, potential regular in the OF with power upside.

I think hes a keeper. LOVE it. :-)

9

seen Taro and Sports Fan in the same room at the same time?  :- )

Personally I dig the comments thread.  Who was the painter who referred to his mistakes as "happy accidents" ... for me the shout box was one such, at least in the short term ... 

10

But there are flaws inherent in that system. ;)  The guys will serve two different purposes.  I like Haniger a lot, though.  Like you said, the swing and the D are both crunchy.  Could just be a good 4th OF for many years, or could be an absolute stud especially if he's in Center.  But I like that dice roll more than any of the others Jerry has taken recently to restock the OF. I really hope this one pays off.

11

I must be the only guy who like him a bunch.  Hmmmm....

A+: .268-.357-.429

AA:  .272-.403-.425

AAA: .292-.417-.505

The guy gets better.

13

Bad Moe!  Bad, Bad Moe!

I knew that......and yet I got cheeky, didn't I.  

But now I don't feel so lonely.....

I had  forgotten G's comment about a toothpick in his hands.  Good stuff.  

14

trade Smith for a viable starter...and go toss the dice with all the young outfielders?

I don't think Dipoto can...too much pressure to perform during 'the window'.

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If he could deal Smith and ? for a solid SP he liked, would imagine he'd pounce.  Sounds like a no-brainer from here, though perhaps JeDi is looking around for better...

You have a specific SP in mind for whom Seth Smith could be the key to a deal?  The Twins might want Smith and ML-ready talent for 3 years of Ervin Santana?

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There should be some fierce competition for the available OF slots. Absent a trade, Martin and Smith are set but that leaves two slots open for Gamel, Heredia, Haniger, Powell, Shaffer, Motter and even O'Neil to fight over. That will be fun to watch in ST. And Tacoma will be relatively stacked. 

18

What odds are you guys giving that Tank O'Neill is our starting RF by mid-June, perhaps earlier?  

Basically he just went .300-.400-.500 (give or take) on the AFL and was some sort of  Andre Dawson in RF.  http://m.mlb.com/news/article/209407370/all-fall-league-team-packed-with...

I'm all in on the kid.  He will start in RF for us this year, even with Haniger/Valencia/Smith in town.

Smith doesn't bring you a Santana or any SP (career-wise he'ls always been worth a RP), but Smith/Gohara/young arm just might.  Something like that might get you Santana.

And I'll throw this out again, I think Leonys Martin gets you a pitcher from St. Louis.  Oh, you would have to tweak the parts, but St. Louis has been in the market for a CF and has dangled Michael Wacha as a possible trade dude (21 year old Alex Reyes is a possible, too....or Lance Lynn...or...).  

What does Martin and Moore (for example) get you from St. Louis?  

All indications are that Haniger has the glovey chops to play CF.  Hmmm.....

So if we have a surplus of CF types and are short arm types.....sometimes you just have to get the cash to market to make a good deal.  Black Friday is shopping day isn't it?  Let's do it.

19

Seth Smith would be moved at the deadline in that scenario (if not prior to the season).  I think Gohara is Zambrano-like and I'm not sure you give that up if you can't afford what you're trading for (where would the starting money come from?) but if we're talking Chris Archer then yeah sure.  Of course, O'Neill also goes out in that deal.  Getting to the middle ground is hard.

We cashed Marte, which is good. It was an expensive upgrade to Segura but should be worth it - even though I'm gonna miss Taijuan. I don't expect to get through next season with Heredia, Gamel, Haniger, Boog and Martin all on the 40-man.  We'll have to add O'Neill anyway. So trading one of the OF gloves now on the roster to help get an arm seems like Roto-Master DiPoto's style.

20

If he pulls it and gets it out of the infield, it's a hit.  Just LOOK at LF.  But he spreads the ball all over the place.  Most of his RF shots are outs, but he goes there a lot.  He had more power hits that way in the minors, so those excessive fly outs might just be an adjustment to make.  He lets the ball get deep unless he's calling his shot and then gets the bat out in front. Just wait til Gar gets those oppo doubles maxxed out, because there's lots of opportunity for growth there.

I'm VERY curious to see him in Spring Training.

22

Thanks for the follow-up, G.

I like Gohara, I'm ready to keep him.  But any trade for an established arm likely has to give up a young one, I think.  If Moore is enough...perfect.

Moore is in a hurry to get to Safeco, btw.  This year, too.

Confident enough in Haniger to trade Martin for an established arm?

23

Yeah.  I'd be looking at moving Martin, or at least assessing his market value. I don't think Haniger was a stopgap move - I expect him to play.  If he's going to play AND O'Neill is coming up in June, there's not a lot of room at the inn.  Either Gamel or Heredia's your 4th OF, and your hedge against injury.  The question is whether DiPoto can realistically roll out there with a baby OF on a contending team.  He may just not be able to sell himself or others on that.

At least if Martin stays you've got somebody with more than a handful of big-league games out there (assuming Seth Smith is on the move too). I honestly don't think you can trade both Smith and Martin, and you'd think Martin would have more value as a glove starter with 2 years left on his club-control rather than a part-timer in the last year of his deal.  So in my world Seth Smith, Professional Hitter stays, and Martin is swapped, leaving LF as a job share and CF with a system POY getting his first full season in - and the team awaiting O'Neill's thump mid-season.

It would take stones, but DiPoto seems to have em.  The team is relying on Cruz and the infield to get it done anyway.  With potential All-Stars at 2B, 3B and now SS to add to a 1B jobshare and the Ruiz/Zunino backstop tandem... it's shaky but workable.  Definitely not a team without holes, but a team that has a lot of available downside patches if they're needed.

I think pitching's the bigger issue, and it just got weaker. With the management change we'll see if they can shake more coins loose from the couch cushions on the payroll front. DiPoto can't be done, though.

~G

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