Originally published 11/23/16. There are a lot of Denizens with beatific looks on their faces about this player. Here are those media links again for your enjoyment. Comments section is also well worth a re-read. :- )
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Q. What is the difference between Ackley-Smoak-Montero, versus Vogelbach-Haniger-Gamel?
A. About 8 or 9 OPS points in their final pre-MLB seasons?
No, actually, it's amusing that Dipoto now has his own trifecta of AAA POY noodles to throw against the wall. They lack the class-A ball pedigrees, but also lack the Michael Pineda-esque price tags attached. Jack Zduriencik gave up Cliff Lee, Pineda and the #2 overall to get his 1000 OPS bush leaguers. Dipoto got his for pennies on the dollar -- admittedly Dipoto's three didn't tromp through the low minors with top-25 labels attached, but it's worth noticing he got the same AAA performances.
Looking forward to the, um, prospect of seeing one of Dipoto's three hotshots pan out.
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Q. Can Haniger play center?
A. Well, this isn't a POTD. At least not in the melodramatic 6-parter sense. But a picture's worth 1,000 words. Watch him play it on THIS gapper.
The gappers seem to be almost a given with Haniger, so here is a nice one that classifies as over his head. John Dewan has him as +7 outs last year in 180 center field innings -- twenty games -- with most of his plus coming on deep balls, which is cool.
At a first glance it looks pretty good that he could potentially be middle-of-the-pack or even better among starting CF's. At a first glance.
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Q. What does Jerry Dipoto mean by "high upside"?
A. Last year at age 25 in a hitter's park, Mitch Haniger had a Ted Williams season -- near .700 SLG, an OBP way over .400.
One possibility is just that he's 25 in a hitter's park, having a Jack Cust stroll through the league. That possibility is real, and the reason that Haniger didn't cost James Paxton.
Still, a .670 SLG in the PCL is nothing to sneeze at. They throw 12-6 curve balls there, throw 96 MPH fastballs. Last year nobody in the PCL slugged .600, and only one guy slugged over .550. We thought we had an ML-ready hitter in Dan Vogelbach, who slugged .505 with an OBP lower than Haniger's.
"High upside" would be for this kid to be a middle-of-the-order hitter in the bigs, playing center field, and for Jerry Dipoto to spend the next seven years preening like a peacock over the heist of a Great White Whale (a club-controls 5 WAR player). See the Fangraphs article below that sees a good chance for Haniger to become a better player than Jean Segura.
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Q. What does the Mainframe grok about the swing?
A. He's relaxed and vertical at release, with quiet hands, and then he EXPLODES his CG to the incoming energy. Do you guys remember Eric Davis? He would do that - loose and jangly and quiet until the ball was in flight, and then he launched his soul at the ball wherever it was in the strike zone.
Personally I fancy this "sudden burst" of CG contact, as I fancy the "Mantis" kung fu style. As do pro boxers. it's no guarantee of success; just saying I enjoy the "Mantis style CG" sports motion.
Here's an example on MLB.com. Watch the quietness as the ball comes off the pitcher's hand and then the extreme "CG attachment" to the down-in location. This is whence the lead-in photo, BTW. Haniger practically launches his face into the strike zone to intercept the ball ...
Here's a long power-alley blast off of an inside 93 fastball on an 0-1 count. He pulls his hip back and tucks his right (bottom) elbow to create clearance for the swing, and does it a real hurry.
In this one he leans wayyyyyyyyyyy in :: susan sarandon, enchanted :: to cover an offspeed pitch.
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Q. What's the word from a scouting standpoint?
A. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs does a real good job, it says here, of putting his finger on the "inside" book. Bobby Tewksbury was the guy credited with Josh Donaldson's explosion and Fangraphs speculates that perhaps Tewksbury's approach did the same in 2016 for Haniger.
From a more technical standpoint, the article quotes a PRE-2016 scout as saying
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While big-league pitchers were able to exploit Haniger’s vulnerability to pitches down and away during his late-season cup of coffee, he’s an above-average runner with plus raw power. Players with that tool combination aren’t exactly easy to come by. Haniger was demoted to High-A as a 24-year old in 2015 after slugging a paltry .379 for Double-A Mobile. It looked like bad news to those of us on the outside who thought the Diamondbacks were souring on him, but in reality Haniger proactively told the D-backs he’d accept a demotion if it meant he could play every day which, with prospects Evan Marzilli, Socrates Brito and Gabriel Guerrero also in Mobile by mid-year, wasn’t going to happen at Double-A. Haniger made a swing change (profiled hereand here by excellent D-backs beat writer Nick Piecoro) and took off. You can see the old swing here.
Scouts are a little bit apprehensive about Haniger’s propensity to swing and miss and think there’s a good chance he either ends up as a platoon bat or power-first fourth outfielder who can play center field in a pinch. Given Haniger’s purported makeup and clear ability to make significant adjustments, I think there’s a non-zero chance he’s a late-blooming average regular but it’s more likely he falls just short of that. The Diamondbacks acquired Haniger along with Anthony Banda from Milwaukee in exchange for Gerardo Parra.
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Then, of course, Haniger had the .340/.430/.670 season and the "late-developing star track" narrative emerged:
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For Haniger, the changes were borne from a question: Why was it that other hitters who weren’t as big or as strong as he was were able to drive the ball to the opposite field with more authority? He began studying swings of players like Josh Donaldson and A.J. Pollock and read up on the hitting philosophies of Bobby Tewksbary, a coach who helped both of those hitters develop into All-Stars.
“I feel like now I’m able to recognize pitches better,” Haniger said. “I can make up my mind whether to swing or not later than I have in the past because my swing is deeper in the zone. I’m able to stay off close pitches. It’s easier for me to use all fields and to see pitches better.”
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Gordon's quick-take comment was, in case you missed it,
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Mitch Haniger is ANOTHER decent-glove, kinda-tweener outfielder who has played all 3 positions, but his minor league statline is even prettier than Gamel's. DiPoto really wants to build that glove OF of productive hitters Royals-style, with O'Neill anchoring it from an offensive perspective moving forward. Haniger is one of those late-bloomers who looks like he might be putting it together. He's ready for more than a cup of coffee in the bigs.
Edit to add, G-Money (in the Napoli thread) had a second take that was even more fun to read. ... thoughts seem to be jelling that Haniger has a real shot to be the best player in the deal. ... guess this is the kind of thing that happens to new GM's ;- )
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Q. SSI Best Bet?
A. Not on your life. Not even saying I like him better than the next guy likes him. Well, I like him better than whoever at MLB.com slotted him in as the org's new #14 prospect. LOL.
But I do like, very much, the MLB-ready trio of Mitch Haniger, Dan Vogelbach and Ben Gamel, for the prices they were acquired at. Very savvy, JeDi. Focusing on their (recent) performances, rather than focusing on their pedigrees, is the essence of sabermetrics.
Cheers,
Dr D