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M's fans got a nice package under the July All-Star break tree, that being the prospect of a #3 starter doing a bellyflop into the rotation swamp. No idea why you'd rather listen to these guys than to the Think Tank, but we have newbs here who may or may not realize that we on SSI know far more than the myopic unies who watch the game from much too close.
Quoth they, after Montgomery 's 6.5 1 1 0 3 (W, 3-3) afternoon last Sunday:
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What NED YOST SAID
"He's just a good pitcher," Royals manager Ned Yost said. "We were looking at his stuff today before the game and I don't think anyone has gotten a hit off his curveball in over a month. He's got a good curveball and a good downhill fastball. He's starting to figure out things out."
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What NED YOST MEANT
"It's not like you're going to beat him just because you make an adjustment here or there. He's got a complete attack. You're going to have to earn your runs against him."
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What BILL KREUGER SAID
.... as far as Dr. D can remember, which is kinda far, considering he took notes:
"I think he's for real. This was a coming-out party for him."
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WHAT BILL KRUEGER MEANT
"He looked like a legitmate AL starter to me. And he's been that way for awhile; he proved everything he needed to prove to a too-skeptical audience."
"There was nothing in the middle of the plate ... he was crisp with his command ... threw his changeup on 2-0 ... has the wipeout curve ball."
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WHAT MIKE BLOWERS SAID
"Bill, you think the say in the bullpen was the key to his turnaround?"
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WHAT BILL KRUEGER SAID
"That's hitting the nail on the head, Mike. It changes your mindeset. You realize you don't have to be perfect. You warm up and you go out there and you don't mess around; you go right after hitters."
"In 2015 [after his great beginning] he started throwing 5 pitches and that caused him to lose the zone with the fastball."
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ON BASEBALL CLICHES
This is a baseball cliche, that if you throw too much offspeed stuff you "lose your feel" for the fastball. Now a cliche at its worst is an overused truism that betrays a lack of original thought, and sometimes cliches can get thrown at situations with a rather superficial attitude. But keep in mind too, that cliches got there because they're very often true.
In Montgomery's case, I've got a real enthusiasm for this cliche. Last start he threw 51 fastballs and cutters, 14 curves and 9 changeups, and stayed in a nice zone. From a fan's standpoint it's a fun theme to watch going forward - will Montgomery attack with plenty of fastballs, using that as the "maypole" around which his sequences spin. Not because it's tougher on hitters, in this case, but if it keeps Montgomery in his best sailing trim.
Who knows, could be the same "cure" that Nate Karns needs?
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WHAT Dr. D SAYS
In 2015, Montgomery had the 1.62 ERA going after 7 starts, and 8-something afterwards. On August 18th last year, Tony Blengino pointed out that stats were too good early and misleadlingly bad late. (He also miscast Montgomery as a poor pitcher period, based on a BIP velocity-only* paradigm. You can find 18 different ways to show how hard a pitcher got hit last month, but it won't prophesy what occurs next month.)
Back to the Mainframe's angle ... Montgomery did "lose the thread" halfway through 2015, become much more of a nibbler than he needed to be. Next thing you know he was walking 3-4 guys per game and throwing poor-quality pitches when 2-0, 3-1.
The QUESTION for Montgomery hopefuls is whether the Bullpen Remedial School for Lost Youth --- > was able to "enlighten" Montgomery in a way similar to the way Japan might have enlightened Wade Leblanc. And whether the BRSfLY will bestow similar competitive blessings on Nate Karns...
Enjoy,
Dr D
