And you kinda need to be one or the other out of the pen. As you say Doc, he starts off a bit wild, overthrows a little, searches for the feel on his curve... and all of a sudden there are two guys on and we're sweating another white-knuckle close.
If that's the first inning... well heck, Felix does that all the time. If you're gonna get to Felix you have to do it in the first 2 innings otherwise he'll destroy you once he finds his rhythm. Wilhelmsen never gets the chance to find his.
They bullpenned Wilhelmsen originally because a) nobody knew what was left in his arm, so no need to blow out a guy throwing 97 by making him try to go 200 innings, b) he didn't have a third pitch which caused him to struggle in starts where he couldn't throw the curve for strikes and c) we needed a bullpenner NOW.
We still need bullpenners, but we have other options. What we really need are as many productive pitchers as we can get, and TW has stopped being productive in the pen. I agree with you, I don't think it's a role he's best suited for, but we don't know whether he'll be any better in the rotation. If nothing else, though, he'll get to throw a lot more curves and changeups in the rotation, get a better feel for them. And maybe realize that it's not how hard he throws the fastball, but where he throws it.
A lesson Capps could use as well.
~G
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Seattle Sports Insider never understood how Tom Wilhelmsen could be relieving in the first place. Now that Baker has called for the switch back, the concept of his return to the rotation is bound to regain traction.
Actually, our go-to man Geoffy clearly explains why Wilhelmsen was moved back to the pen in 2011: (1) the Mariners were desperate for bullpen help and (2) Wilhelmsen's results in the rotation were questionable at the time.
Larry Stone reports that Wilhelmsen is going back to Tacoma and that it isn't known whether it is to get stretched out as an SP.
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Theory and Practice, Dept.
In terms of the ol' "Starter's Rhythm" camera angle, you would think it was a NO-BRAINER to put him in the rotation.
- Extreme starter's BODY
- Extreme starter's MOTION
- Throws a huge 12-6 curve
- Seems to be wild his first 10 pitches
- Extreme starter's RHYTHM (is not a max-effort type)
I can't even remember the last time I saw a major league closer as tall and lanky as Wilhelmsen, throwing downhill, with a short stride, pitching the 9th inning. There must have been people, but none come to mind. Not only that, but Wilhelmsen's release point has been getting HIGHER and HIGHER and ... HIIIIGGGGHerrrr:
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When pitchers frazzz in-and-out with control, the LAST thing you'd do would be to ask them to pitch one inning in relief, much less close. Can you imagine the rookie Clayton Kershaw, or rookie Gio Gonzalez, being asked to close?! Rotation pitching allows them to (1) have some bad games if they want and (2) groove in their release points over the course of several innings. Notice, above, that Wilhelmsen's release point is majorly inconsistent.
Imagine, if you will, the 1990 Randy Johnson coming in to pitch the 9th inning.... ::shudder::
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Joe Shrink Sez
Counseling is part of Dr. D's day gig. If he were Wilhelmsen's counselor, he would be investigating the question of, "Do you feel you belong in the major leagues? Is it possible you don't?" and would probably, in all seriousness, hypnotize him to get to the bottom of his anxieties. What is the worst part of blowing a save? What do you think people will say about you? What does it say about you as a person if you throw a bad pitch?, and so on ...
The point is, Tom Wilhelmsen is a guy who has every right to emotionally (right-brain) feel like he is --- > a "Poser." Of the 25 players in the clubhouse, he could be the most fragile.
And as a completely separate issue, he's got unreliable physical skills ... this is the guy you ask to handle more pressure than any other player on your team?
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Previously In the Rotation
It's true that some guys don't have the arm strength to pitch in the rotation. Goose Gossage was pretty lousy as a starter, but once he could pour everything into 15 pitches it was a different discussion.
We remember being very frustrated that Rafael Soriano wasn't in the rotation, but it turned out later that his durability just wasn't up to it. In the rotation he was a hittable 92-94 without much else; in the pen he was 97-101 and 'effectively wild.' And the Mariners were right to keep him in the pen. Maybe that is the way with Wilhelmsen. If so, the Mariners are probably the ones who would know.
Wilhelmsen, back in 2011, had a crummy 40:26 strikeout:walk ratio in 60 innings at AA.
Of course, he was out of baseball from 2004 to 2010, apparently not pitching anywhere until 2009. He had only just rejoined baseball in 2010, with only 70-odd innings back in pro ball under his belt. As we all know, he has grown since the summer of 2011. It would be quite odd to take the 2011 experiment as the end of the discussion; Tom Wilhelmsen as a pitcher isn't a finished product NOW, much less in 2011.
Can a young pitcher bounce back from a false start in the rotation, to succeed there later? As we'll see in the next article, the unusual thing would be if such a "swing man" did NOT fail in his first attempt at starting.
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If the Stuff Translates to the Rotation
There were 5 starters in major league baseball, both leagues, who sustained 94+ MPH last year. There were only 13 who sustained 93 MPH.
In fact, it is my considered opinion that Wilhelmsen is overthrowing the ball as a reliever -- he seems to think he needs 98-99 MPH every pitch, and he yanks pitches wide of the zone. Wouldn't you say Gordon? It could be that if he relaxed into his motion, accepted 95 MPH, that his release point would smooth out.
Top-10 velocity and a big overhand yakker, also known as the young Josh Beckett. (Bill James was asked about the Hanley Ramirez trade last week; he said "People still debate both sides of that one in our office.")
...........
How much velo do you think Wilhelmsen would sacrifice? I think Chris Sale, though a LHP, is a good comp in terms of leverage, effort and sustainability. He went from 94-96 in the pen to 92-93 as a starter, so he lost about 3 MPH:
Sale is currently #7 in the American League in average velocity. Wilhelmsen throws quite a bit harder as a reliever than Sale used to, so it's a pretty good question whether Wilhelmsen wouldn't have top-5 velocity as an SP.
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Y'know, we always say, a picture's worth 1,000 words. And here we are, not posting pictures of C.J. Wilson for yer. So...
NEXT
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Comments
What I don't get, and I appreciate the tutelage I have seen from Spectator and guys like Gordon, is why the reluctance to try some things out? I mean, if TW isn't cutting it as a reliever, is it too early yet to try out guys like Capps or Bawcom in the role and see how they handle it? They seem to be doing pretty well at Tacoma, the stats would seem right, and if nothing else you could see what the experience does for them. It's not as if the Mariners haven't been willing to bring guys up and try them out - witness Zunino and Miller, and with the bullpen being 'somewhat' in question, why not try to shake things up a little? The worse that could happen is that these guys aren't ready to transition and you send them back down. But I still see plenty of upside in making the veterans think and giving the future guys a look to see if they really are worth the continuing investment.
Like the name says, I only look at this part-time, but having been away from baseball fandom for 20 years or so, I am interested in learning a little more and understanding how the game has changed.
To be fair, they gave Capps a long run in an M's uniform. I wouldn't bring him back until he proves that he learned from it. And while we are at it, I'm sick of the RH FB/Slider pitchers. Start teaching the splitter or something.
Strange duplicate post.
I see that they gave Capps a 18 game stint, where he had a 3.96 ERA in 25 innings. Still, Capps was just recalled, so I think that is a good idea. Other than Perez and Furbush, no one on the team at this point, as far as relivers are concerned, is doing any better than what Capps did in 2012. To make things interesting, they might have called Bawcom up to see how he would do.
Also, as you look at the Tacoma lineup, there are two guys there, Brian Sweeney and Josh Kinney who you have to question. Sweeney is nearly 40 and hasn't had hardly any time in the majors - only 93.1 innings in the past 8 years (and hasn't been in the majors since 2010). Kinney has 96.3 innings in that same time frame, is 5 years younger, but is only a reliever, and doesn't have the stats Sweeny has. While they are veterans and add some experience to the club, it would seem they would either want to try these guys or move them on (not to seem cruel, but my opinion would be to move them on). They would at least then be able to get some more players the upper level experience they will need or clear space for others...
You can't just add relievers to the bigs, they have to be placed on the 40 man. Bawcom is not on the 40 man, so we'd have to kick somebody off it to get him on (well not really, since Montero is on a 50 game suspension, but you know what I mean).
So you can't run mid-season callups because you have to kick farmhands off the list and leave them able to be stolen by other clubs. We could kick Ruffin off, but he's still moderately interesting and might be a bullpen option himself now that he remembers how to throw a strike (we moved him to the rotation for just that purpose this year). We could dump Noesi, but someday he might figure out how to get guys out with runners on. Anthony Fernandez is still a decent AA starter with some potential. Maurer and Beavan are filling purposes on the big-league club. LaFromboise struggled in the bigs, big-time, but has LOOGY possibilities...
It's hard to make 40-man cuts, and we need to add even more guys in the offseason to it. Can't be adding to that by messing around with tertiary relievers to try to patch a couple week problem. The rosters expand in September and I expect several bullpen arms to see time, guys like Carson Smith and Tyler Burgoon among others, in a head-start on Spring Training. We have a LOT of arms in the mix for the bullpen next year.
This year's pen is gonna have to figure it out with the assembled pieces already on the 40-man. There aren't enough worthless players left on the 40 to throw overboard for trials. One of the side benefits of having a much better farm system: 40-man placeholders are harder to come by.
~G
Dude, Sweeney and Kinney aren't on the 40-man.
FWIW, Churchill is skeptical of the TW to starter experiment. I don't necessarily agree with him. I respect his knowledge, but I don't trust him when it comes to very specific judgements about players and what they can and can't do.
If he was a stock broker he'd be a bear all the way. And since this is baseball and bears are right more often than bulls, it's smart for him to be that way. But I agree with you about his qualms when it comes to player limitations. He seems to view them as as absolutes in the present instead of changable values for the future. Jason and I prospect very differently, which I value sometimes (because it shows me where my blind spots are) and which can be very infuriating at other times. *laughs*
Wilhelmsen can always go back to the pen - as Ruffin is right now after spending most of the year as a starter to straighten out his release point and work on secondary pitches. It can be a permanent conversion, or a temporary teaching tool, but either way I don't think it hurts anything. Tom needs straightening out to fully harness some of those wonderful tools of his, and IMO it'll be easier for him to do that from the rotation.
~G
Only add-on here ... Jason tends to reinforce the opinions of the old-school scouts that he has open lines of communication with, and like Gordon says that can be a valuable thing... keeps the blog-o-sphere in tune with what the old pro's are saying...
Never ceases to amaze me how STRIDENT baseball scouts are, as to whether a certain pitcher should be starting or relieving. It's like talking religion or politics. There is no way to have a dispassionate information exchange.
I'm almost the opposite. To me it would be an easy way to fish for unexpected value, to try guys back-and-forth between the rotation and bullpen?! Capt Jack is motivated to scrounge some value out of the Fister deal, so is motivated to use the idea on Ruffin. Why not in ordinary cases?
I think their success is, in part, to having that empirical view of roles - to simply try to get the best value from each guy. Thus, a starter who had won 20 games, but with endurance problems that may have been more mental than physical (from drinking?) is turned into a closer that simply dominates - Dennis Eckersley. A reliever/spot starter thought to be a bit "soft" is turned into a dominating starter - Dave Stewart. The list obviously goes on. Mike Moore. Bob Welch. Chris Carpenter. Adam Wainwright. Ryan Franklin. Again and again those guys took marginal pitchers and turned them into winners. In some cases it was subtle (taking a guy forced to be a #1 starter and franchise savior and simply making him a #3 - Moore). In the case of Eckersley it was dramatic (Focus on one inning and one inning only - don't go three times through a lineup and don't inherit runners - just get three outs). Likewise, with Stewart (four straight years of 20-win seasons after being RELEASED by the Phillies).
If JackZ, Eric Wedge, and Carl Willis can start doing asset recovery at that level, we'll do fine. The success of Aardsma says that JackZ does have an eye for value. The scouts view of him was that he was toast. Not so. I like the spaghetti-method when executed by guys who can see the underlying talent AND the ability to put guys into positions and environments that allow them to be successful. Wilhelmsen and Delabar were found - now the development is more Wedge and Willis's bailiwick. Delabar was used to get something (even if it didn't work) and Wilhelmsen is still ours - trying to see where he might be most useful (and most comfortable) is the essence of asset management.
In this regard, the seemingly conflicting reports of what they're doing (stretching him out, getting steady work, etc.) are consistent with the idea that they don't know yet what is going to work. Hopefully it doesn't turn out like Morrow (I think Tom is hungrier and more flexible, so I doubt it will), but, again hopefully, they won't be forced into a premature decision and can do the testing and analysis required to get the kind of results LaRussa and Duncan got.
Gordon - I totally agree with you that the 40 man crush is a major reason the Mariners are not doing a few things... but I am not sure if more than 50% of the readers here understand this limitation and the complexity it adds to moving players around.
I think most people understand the 25 man roster, and all the limitations that has... but at least the 25 man roster gets reset every September, and then again at the beginning of the new season.
The 40 man is an on-going limitation - all year every year. It never gets reset. The 40 man roster does change automatically a couple weeks after the World Series, when players contracts usually expire... thus creating the new list of free agents for the off season.
However, any change to the 40 man roster is permanent. Thus, if you take a player off the 40 man roster through the DFA process, that player is a free agent after the 10 day waiting period. It does not matter if the player is Jason Bay or Carter Capps... you just let the player go with out any compensation. The player may decided to re-sign with the Mariners, but there is no rule that says he has to.
The only exceptions to get players off the 40 man roster are the 60 day disabled list, and the restricted list that Montero just went on. Further, come the end of the season, there is no disabled list, so the players on the disabled list MUST be put back on the 40 man roster. I believe the same is true with the restricted list, but I am unsure about the timing.
Thus, even though we have a couple spots open on the 40 man roster currently, the Mariners do not want to put themselves in a position of having the 40 man crush in the off season.
On this squad, the Mariners have 19 pitchers and 19 hitters - which is a normal distribution. Of these 38 players, roughly 18 will be free agents - 8 pitchers: Harang, Perez, probably Saunders, and several players who are still under team control - meaning it is the Mariners choice to keep them or let the player go - like Furbush.... and 10 hitters: Ibanez, Morales, Morse, Ryan, Blanco, Quintero, Chavez, Peguero, and players still under team control like Triunfel and such.
On top of all this, there are players who MUST be added to the 40 man roster from the minors who have been with the organization 5 years by December 1st or so, or these players are made available to the Rule 5 Draft.... and the Mariners have plenty that fall into this category.
From this point, and the reason Jack gets multiple assistants and still gets the big bucks, the Mariners need to figure out who gets added, which positions will need to be filled by new players and etc... but I will leave that part to the experts.
Therefore, adding a young player to the 40 man, especially a reliever, probably does not make much sense. However, adding a Brian Sweeney or other veteran you do not care about for the future DOES make sense. So I would not be surprised to see the Mariners add a free agent like Travis Blackley or Mark Reynolds and such just to see if there is anything there for next year - or just get us through the year without hurting any young arms.
Feel free to add anything I missed Doc, Gordon or Spec...