UNtapped UPside
supafreak, Dept.

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Marc W at USS Mariner has been pickin' em up and layin' em down his last sevvral pieces.  In this one, he asks an interesting question.  What does Taijuan Walker have that Wily Peralta -- the kid who faced off against Taijuan on Friday -- does not?

It's worth a few minutes' meditation before answering.  Peralta does clock in with the same 94.3 MPH velocity that Taijuan does.  He's also young.  He also throws strikes.  Marc W points to Peralta's high groundball rates and thinks of Felix Hernandez.

So, it's worth a few minutes' baseball meditation.  What is the difference between a Peralta and a Walker?  What is the nature of that difference?  Or is there none?

....

Taijuan threw a coupla innings today.  People were frustrated at the outing, though the Brew scored only one run off him.  Sharply contrasting this was the radio gush-fest at the pitcher his ownself.  Jerry DiPoto gushed, and several men less accountable for the Mariners gushed.  Somebody -- think it was Jonah Keri of all people -- gingerly predicted that Taijuan would outpitch Felix (!) this year.

DiPoto's gush --- > flowed around the idea of "untapped potential."  Untapped potential the likes of which even Lonnie hath not seen.  This "potential" despite the fact that Taijuan already IS a good major league pitcher.  He fanned 8.3 men last year while walking only 2.1 ... from May 29 on, that ratio was a Maddux-like 118:17 with an even more Maddux-like OBP of .264 against.  Slap me silly.  This while using one functional pitch.

....

Somebody also pointed out that DiPoto "inherited" Taijuan.  But, Jerry D has stepped wayyyyy, way around the kind of disvowal that Jack Z slapped on Brandon Morrow and every other player Z inherited.  

Nate Karns is really, REALLY good.  James Paxton is better than that.  But DiPoto -- who inherited Taijuan, but married Karns -- will not even consider unseating Walker.  So what kind of "untapped upside" are we TALKING here.

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Think I'll light one up now, since you mention it
Think I'll light one up now, since you mention it

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Take a moment to savor this aspect of Jerry DiPoto's personality.  You know that scent they put in the blue candles?  What do they call it, "novermber rain" or "linen" or something?  Very light and airy.  Aaaaahhhhhhhhh

....

The difference between Peralta and Walker:

1.  If there were none, that would be fine.  Peralta was healthy in 2014 and he won 17 games.  He was 17-11, 3.53.  Okay if Taijuan does that this year?

2.  Peralta is 6-foot, two hundred fifty pounds.  Walker, um, isn't.  Walker's a strapping 7 feet, 225 lbs, with hands like Odell's and a Frisbee-like backspin.

3.  This myth about "Groundballs = Good" dies hard.

4.  Taijuan played hoops in high school.  He's just gettin' started.  He is simply physically capable of developing more --- > Command than Peralta.  More pitches.  More weapons.  More everything.  It's like the 19-year-old Kobe Bryant being able to create his own shot in the NBA.  So what?  Lotta guys can create their own shot ... yeah.  But at age 25.  So what did Kobe spend his time learning between the ages of 19 and 25?

5.  etc.

....

Here is a vid of the kid, detonating the pesky rodent Angels "last" month.  As y'know, we live to serve.

  • Precision fastball on the black
  • Smoltz splitter dropping from in zone to below zone
  • Yakker
  • Fastball up the ladder
  • (picks Mike Trout off first base in a major league stadium, which is something you will never do as long as you live)
  • Ladder FB again
  • Smoltz split
  • Out-and-over 97 challenge fastball (different from "up the ladder" - this one is upper third, outer third, do yer werst Meat)

It's all too easy to imagine Walker doing this routinely.  In which case who knows what his W-L and ERA would be.  Hey, it was late in the year and it's not like there were any surprises between Walker and the Angels.  It's just that when these kinds of pitches travel from rubber to plate, nothing wooden is going to intersect their paths.

Dr. D has not been the quickest guy in the world to jump on Taijuan's bandwagon.  But over the last decade or four, he has learned to spot a freak when he sees one, not that there was any shortage of freak sightings in this case.  Here's to Taijuan gettin' his freak on this year.

BABVA,

Jeff

Blog: 

Comments

1

At one time I believed this was an original thought, but I'm sure it's been stated by actual baseball people a thousand times. Assuming it's true.

But isn't the size of hands/fingers on a pitcher the ultimate difference maker?  

It's what made Koufax remarkable...what allowed Pedro to dominate despite being undersized.  I always thought it's why guys as tall and angular as Chris Young often can't throw 90.  Same with some guys that tall and 240 pounds of muscle.  The last leverage provided by the snap of long fingers is what adds the 'sizzle' to pitches.  

If there were a counterpart of the NFL combine in baseball, I'm thinking the length of fingers for a pitcher would be the most important thing measured.

Anyway, this is either daft or common knowledge.  You just reminded me of it with the Odell reference.  

2

Major League Baseball of course has its own culture.  Hush-hush.  Let the fans think we have our own mystical knowledge.

NFL evaluators couldn't care less whether bloggers THINK they are expert at what they do.  Neither could brain surgeons.

3

Is anybody this side of Maddux and Felix more light on their feet and so well balanced?

What sport wouldn't you do well when you move like that?

4

From Hey Bill this week:

re: Minor league pitchers: What if we were looking at cumulative minor league numbers instead of individual seasons?
Asked by: shthar
Answered: 3/5/2016
 If you know of a way to make minor league pitching numbers highly predictive, you're ahead of me.   Over time, "numbers" will emerge measuring stuff like average fastball velocity, spin rates, deceptivity and location.   THOSE numbers will be predictive from a fairly early point in a pitcher's career.   The "older" minor league numbers (wins, losses, strikeouts, walks, ERA). . .I don't think those are ever going to contribute a whole lot to pitcher predictability.  
 
I was talking to a couple of scouts earlier this week at a game. . .I hope I'm not out of line sharing this with you, but I don't think they would mind and I don't think I am harming the Red Sox in any way by sharing this with you.   There was a pitcher on the mound, and the scout said that several years ago he filed a report on this pitcher, back when the pitcher was in A ball or rookie ball, saying that (a) he throws 94 to 96 consistently, (b) his slider is terrific, and (c) his career isn't going anywhere.   He said he felt odd filing that report, that a pitcher with two tremendous pitches wasn't going to go anywhere, but you could just tell.   The guy had a long, loopy delivery that wasn't conducive to command, and he just thought he would fight himself on the mound for the rest of his career.   And he has.   He could go out to Double-A and dominate at Double-A and it wouldn't mean anything, because he's not going to learn to do what he has to do at the major league level.   It's a complicated equation.   You have to put a lot of things together to reach real understanding.  

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