Q.  What is the best argument that the Grade B version will show up in 2010?

A.  Many, many, many, MANY pitchers, Commandant Lassard, threw 211-234-231 innings in consecutive years, and just flat burned out.

We remember when Ismael Valdes was the M's #1 trade target for Randy Johnson.  The Dodgers backed out at the last second, and we got Freddy and Carlos Guillen instead.

Valdes fired a scorching 2.65 ERA in 1997, right before the Unit trade, but burned out right after that.  He was a smoke-and-mirrors innings eater the rest of his career.

If Harang just got too much wear-and-tear in 2005-07, he'll have to scuffle Bosio-style from here out.

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Also, Harang has thrown a LOT of Grade B innings the last two years.  :- )

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Q.  Tell me again, how does this Grade B guy -- two pitches, a 90 fastball and a mushy little slider, fan 8 guys a game?

A.  Hides the ball VERY very well.  Short-arm, high-front-side deception is plus-plus.

Command can be surreal -- like Catfish, he can live 2-4 inches outside alllllll night looonnnnnng.

Think George Sherrill from the right side, with his breaking pitch going up-and-down instead of sideways.

Even throwing 89, with a 81 wrinkle slider, they just can't pick the ball up.

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Q.  What is the best argument that somebody will get the Grade A Harang?

A.  A non-arm, non-baseball "injury" (his appendix) cut short his 2009 season.  He wound up with a nice easy 160 innings.

This follows on a 2008 season in which he threw well under 200 innings, also.

Harang did show plenty of flashes of the bite on his stuff, from one game to another.  And let's not forget the dude had 7.9 strikeouts a game in 2009.

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Here is Peter Bendix pointing out that if you dismiss the games right around Harang's forearm strain, even in 2009, then Harang was running a 2+ ERA.

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Q.  Mechanics?

A.  When Harang gets 20 lbs. heavier, he gets lazy and this doesn't help either.

A guy like Rick Adair, if he could get a little weight of Harang and get his CG acclerating better, WOULD have the old Harang back.

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Q.  What do you think about the NL-AL transition?

A.  I worry about this most with NL pitchers who get away with challenging.  One thing about the NL, is that it does not punish centered 90 mph fastballs as viciously.

It's much like the difference between the PCL and the NL.  In the PCL, you throw a bad pitch and somebody hits the ball squarely.   In the NL, the runner's will be rounding 1B.   But in the AL, the pitch is twelve rows back.

Harang isn't a guy who gets away with mistakes in the NL.  I would almost predict him to benefit from the novelty of a league change.  Hitters won't have him booked.

Remember, in the NL, Harang had three All-Star years before hitters caught up to him a little bit.   A re-boot for Harang could even help.

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Q.  Buy?

A.  "B Game" Harang is a dream #3 behind two Cy aces.  He'll fan 8 guys, walk 2, make the defense look great and go 16-9.

"A Game" Harang would add a third Opening Day starter to the rotation.

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Q.  Gut instinct on whether the "A Game" Harang will be back?

A.  I dunno, 30% chance.  Harang does get heavy.  That's not a recipe for a growth industry in his ERA+ as he ages.

But I'm willing to pay for his luck-normalized 2008-09 -- a fine #2-3 starter -- and take the rebound as gravy.

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Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Aaron Harang would be an epic Big Three even if the gloves and park weren't putting the hitters in a pain amplifier.

I don't even know what you'd expect if you got those three together in front of a sensational defense, in the league's toughest park.  I guess you'd just let Ichiro swing away and the other hitters could watch the game from the boxes.

Cheers,

Dr D