Q. In plain English, what's Gutierrez worth to the Mariners?
A. Here y'go amig-O. These are the three takes on Guti that you will find in SSI chatthreads:
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UP - Guti is, in reality, worth +15 or +20 runs gloveside.
At the plate, he's a young hitter who's shown flashes of stardom already. Even in Safeco, he'll find his level as an average-solid right hand hitter who posts an OPS+ of 100-110.
This adds up to a 40-, even 50-runs player ... which is as valuable as Ichiro, Chase Utley, or Jay Bruce ... and Franklin is a $20M player who is playing for only $5-7M per year over the next four years.
If I'm not mistaken, multi-format roto champ Taro (along with others, natcherly) is optimistic that Guti will yield this cornucopia of net value.
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MID - Guti is getting at least +10, probably +15 runs defensively. His bat is an issue in Safeco, but if he hits mediocre to below-average (90 OPS+, like last year), that still makes him a 25-, maybe 30-runs player (like last year).
You have a $8-10M player at about a 30% discount. The bat may get a little unsightly, but Guti's overall game is real solid and a great value.
If I'm not mistaken, this is the position taken by about 80% of SSI posters who speak up in the comments.
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LO - Guti is a +5, +10 runs defender in the middle of the field, who is about to get eaten by 2,000 lbs. of Safeco ants like a baddie in an Indiana Jones flick.
He was +23 runs above replacement (which is the same as "average player") last year and that is going down in 2011 if he stays in Safeco. His second half was 210/250/300 ... not far from a pitcher's batting line ... and he may do that from now on.
Despite his being a plus glove, the batting line will just be too ugly to tolerate, and he won't deserve a fulltime role.
If I'm not mistaken, this is the position taken by me.
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Q. Is there any way to know which is "correct"?
A. Nope. This is where the fate of the local fans' hearts can only be determined by the judgment of the GM, here Jack Zduriencik.
There is no sabermetrician alive who can forecast Gutierrez' next four years "correctly." It's subjective.
SSI softly, tenderly whispers that the dominant feature in this chess position is --- > the 2,000 pounds of Safeco ants. In 2H 2010, this marching ant golem was seen jumping out of the stands and galloping after Guti in the fourth inning of a late-September Rangers game.
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You're with me as to what Safeco is about to do to Guti? Then prepare for him to lose his fulltime role shortly.
You think he'll weather the home park and hit 90, 100 OPS+? Then cast your evaluation at the 25-30 run mark (conservatively) or the 40+ run mark (optimistically).
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Q. How about an objective source, just to ground us?
A. Shandler says, bid on the expectation of this:
The next player in Forecaster is Christian Guzman, who's got about the same projecton.
Guti's scheduled for 4.02 runs created per game ... the 2010 A's scored 4.09 runs per game, and with a spectacular pitching staff (116 ERA+) they managed a .500 record.
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Hey, if Franklin gets 4.02 runs per game, I'm okay. He's a glove man in the middle of the field. It's the 2.17 RC in the second half that I wring my hands over, not the 4.02 thing.
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Gut's mid-range projection.
Hes averaged exactly 629 PAs the past two seasons, so we'll use that as a benchmark.
Career AVG WAR per fangraphs: 3.7
I'd say 3.5 WAR is a conservative mid-range. My bet is that Gut tops that next year.
Guti's real value isn't found in his runs created or his AR. It IS found in how much Boston or somebody else is willing to give up for him?
He's a mid-level (at best) offensive player in a park that kills his offensive skill set. He's a very nice defensive CF in a park that exagerates his defensive abilities.
In my ideal workd, Guti was peddled this winter while he still looked real good in his makeup and all the GM guys didn't see beyond the makeup. College guys in a bar. You know the routine.
You get lots for him that way.
Now we're in a Catch-22 situation. Best trade scenario is that Guti rips the ball early which drives up his value. Problem with that is that if he rips it early then Z is going to be sure that "his" guy is about to explode.
I'm afraid we're stuck with him for another year...which means 2 or 3 more.
When you're struggling to get anywhere near .500 then a 2 for 1 trade makes great sense.
Trader Jack? Let's hope so.
moe
make that WAR
I hope we're stuck with Guti for the next 4 years.
11:$4M, 12:$5.5M, 13:$7M, 14:$7.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)
Or are you backing off your expectation for him to be a league-average hitter? :- )
Considering your firm conviction that he's a +20 runs glove ... as a league-average hitter, he's 4.5 wins and up, of course.
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If Gutierrez is actually a 3.5 WAR Minimum player, then for $5-7m he's quite a franchise pillar.
Then he's a nice bargain, no argument.
The SSI mainframe predicts an ugly scene at the plate from here. But let's say that in April-May 2011, he's hitting again, we'll all be thrilled.
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Gutierrez is young, and I'd love to see him take the high road... would mean a lot to that 500-run offense that the UZR craze created in Seattle...
Just keep buying that value UZR and we'll be in good shape, right dudes ;- ) ... don't sweat the 210/250/300 performances ... value on the UZR dollar is where it's at...
Yerf
[Forget] WAR. This was the worst offensive team since soda was invented. Get some players that can hit.
Before or after the International League?
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I wonder if any recent AAA lineups could have scored more than 513 (*?) runs in the majors.
But in Safeco? That's a high hurdle to clear. I'd actually guess not, but it's probably pretty close. Lots of those minor league teams (like the ones in Nevada) are loaded with AAAA sluggers who feast on the altitude and cozy ballpark dimensions.
Safeco doesn't have thin air OR cozy dimensions. Unless you're a pitcher, then it's pretty comfy.
3.7 WAR is simply just an average of Gut's WAR per 629 PAs over the course of his career. I'd say thats the mid-range projection.
Hes only going to turn 28 in a month, so theres a good chance of him doing a little better than career averages offensively. Career numbers are usually the conservative bet though for guys in their late 20s, a little over 30.
When "mean" makes no sense in a volatile data set.
If Dave Fleming posted a 4.36 ERA in year 1, and then a 6.46 ERA in year 2, I don't suppose you'd split the difference for his year 3 projection. (He then went 5.96 and 7.50 in years 3 and 4.)
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Am not saying that 210/250/300 is Guti's new level, but not sure I'd go with averaging here :- )
I don't know Doc, I think theres a tendency to put too much importance in the most recent performance.
I can't see anything significantly different in his offensive skillset either than just a poor year overall with slightly less power. The main culprit is just BABIP. High in '09 and low in '10.
Of course anything is possible, but I think a rebound is likely.
Well that at least was when carbonated water was invented
Coke, Pepsi, and Dr. Pepper all came around in the late 1800's