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Q. What is Upton's upside scenario?
A. This kid is showing 155 PX's already -- 170 in spots -- and he's got every chance to hit 40, even 50 homers. Maybe in several different seasons.
Other players with 150 PX's: ARod, Jay Bruce, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Teixeira.
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And Justin is already creating 6-7 runs a game, even 8 for stretches. Upton could become the Juan Gone or Jose Canseco of the next decade. I'd like to have him - don't get me wrong.
Like Taro says, you could be talking about a nearly Hamilton-level talent. The upside is very tantalizing. SSI doesn't mean to downplay what could happen if the dice roll hits just right.
You could have -- well, you could have Juan Gonzalez.
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Q. Juan Gone is under suspicion, right?
A. Yes, but it could be that Justin Upton is naturally as physically gifted as Gonzalez was after the funny training.
If the Mariners acquired Justin Upton, I'd rejoice with everybody else, and hope that we had just acquired Juan Gonzalez, rather than having acquired B.J. Upton or Andruw Jones.
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Q. What's his chance of hitting this UP track?
You say, 30% chance of the HOF. Is it reasonably possible for a player to be really good at 20, 21, 22 and not be very good at all?
A. Jose Lopez, at 20, was a super player in AAA. At age 22, Lopez made the AL All-Star team. ... he just finished his age-26 season with a 71 OPS+ and 2.8 runs per game.
It happens. This fine Dave Cameron article follows on Bill James' work in the subject, and lists a few of the disappointments for us:
- Jose Lopez ...
- Wil Cordero ...
- Lloyd Moseby (great at 23-24; nothing after) ...
- Jose Oquendo (in the majors at 19; good at 22; out of baseball at 28)
- etc...
Even a lot of the guys summarized as "All-Stars" on that list, became a lot less than they looked like at age 22.
Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Gregg Jeffries, Luis Castillo, B.J. Upton, those guys are summarized as "All-Stars" but they certainly had a lot of bad seasons between them, for guys on HOF tracks at 22.
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We don't say that Justin Upton doesn't have a nice career arc. He does. But he is FARRRRR from a guarantee of superstardom. He could easily -- I say probably will -- disappoint. If you're hoping for a superstar.
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Q. How much does SSI want a ... probably-Andruw and possibly-Igor, righthanded in Safeco?
A. Remember, the kid is already close to 7 runs a game, and is a super defender as a corner OF.
If he jells at Igor's 45 homers and 140 RBI, he's going to make a lot of us verrrrry happy. At least until he goes after his heavy bling in 2016.
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