Part 1

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Q.  Is Justin Upton a commodity that could easily become worth $100,000,000 to a major league franchise?

A.  This might be true if you had a major league ballclub, but you had been required to play with no minor league affiliates and with no minor leaguers.

If there were such a thing as a Bud Selig-owned team that had nothing but a 25-man roster, and acquired every player off the FA market and waiver wire, then Upton might become worth $100M over the years ($20M per season times x 5 seasons).

We don't mean that in a snide way.  We mean it literally.

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If you take a sharp pencil -- and this amigo's pencil is very sharp indeed -- and valuate Justin Upton this way:

2011 – +3.5 WAR, $17.5 million value, $4.25 million salary
2012 – +4.0 WAR, $20.8 million value, $6.75 million salary
2013 – +4.5 WAR, $24.8 million value, $9.75 million salary
2014 – +4.5 WAR, $25.7 million value, $14.25 million salary
2015 – +5.0 WAR, $30.0 million value, $14.5 million salary

It would appear that, much like the U.S. Government these days, a ballclub is drunkenly printing money by acquiring Justin Upton.

But!  

That pretty $14M net profit line, in 2012, assumes that a ballclub has three, and only these three, options:

1. Put a lousy, replacement, AAA ballplayer -- say Ryan Langerhans -- in LF
2. Put an ML free agent, acquired at 100% of market value -- say, Jason Bay -- in LF
   
3. Play Justin Upton in LF
   

If those were a ballclub's only three options, then yes, Upton might theoretically be worth $14M in 2012.

To come up with $100M value for Upton, you're comparing him to zero (0).  You're assuming that your alternative is nothing -- an RLP.

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Q.  What's the fourth option?

A.  Place a talented young club-controls player in left field, who himself is also worth more than nothing. 

As soon as you do that, a Justin Upton is not worth $100M more than nothing; he's worth (say) $40M more than the $60M that your best Michael Saunders type is worth (over those five years).

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Q.  Doesn't that put you into a guessing game?  Do CPA's like to do that?

A.  No, but mutual fund managers do.

Look, the alternative is to make business decisions under the premise that you have no minor-league system, and the problem with that premise is that ---- > it is a lie.

You put your eggs into the Justin Upton basket for the next 5 years, and that is fine.  But!  Do be aware of the fact that ---- > part of the cost of that move, is the #26 roster player that you lose.

Had you, in 2008, selected Adam Jones as your next CF of the next 6 years, the real-world cost of that decision would have turned out to be Franklin Gutierrez.

Put Justin Upton in LF for five years, and part of the real-world cost might be that you lose Nick Franklin's production, or Carlos Triunfel's, or Michael Saunders' if he is going to hit 35 homers, or whatever.

You might be fine with that.  Hey, I would be fine with that.  But take it out of Upton's hundred mill.

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Q.  Could Upton become worth that much?

A.  Sure.

If you thought that you could not produce a single worthwhile OF prospect, over the next 5 years, then Upton could be worth a net $20M a year.

I'm not trying to be snide.  Maybe that's your projection -- that you don't think you can develop minor leaguers.

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Part 3

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