Saunders vs Milone Pregame
Desperately Seeking '95

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Here is our Flowers for Algernon post on Saunders, right before we signed him.  EXEC SUM:  he's not the prettiest pitcher to watch, but does have a lifetime ERA+ of 103.

As you know, he's a slight variation on Jason Vargas -- hyperlow BB rate, so when his K's bip up over 5.6 he can be a TOR for short stretches.  Saunders isn't quite as good as Vargas, but on the other hand he was on a hot roll to close 2012.  Figure a 10% chance a 5% chance that he's leaped a plateau, as Jamie Moyer did at about Saunders' age.

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Saunders hides the ball well, short-arming it like George Sherrill.  Against LHB's he throws only FB's and CB's in a 70-30 mix, no changeups whatsoever.  

Lefties were genuinely helpless against Saunders last year, batting a feeble .199/.222/.229.  That's a pitcher's line.  

Of Oakland's five good hitters (check me on that), four of them are lefty -- Seth Smith, Josh Reddick, John Jaso and Brandon Moss.  In theory, this sets Saunders up to pitch around Yoenis Cespedes.  If Saunders gives Cespedes anything good to hit, it will be a strategic error of the first magnitude.

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In 2012 -- an UP year for Saunders -- righties lit him up to the tune of a .307/.349/.500 line.  That's just about what we are hoping for from Michael Morse, so imagine a league full of Morses invading our park and you've just about got the idea.

Saunders tries to defend himself with 15% changeups and 15% curveballs, heavier on the changeups, really.  His fastball does swerve a lot, 6x11 inches.  

In late 2012 he had insane command within the zone, leading to his hot streak.  Saunders on his A game is simply painting the black with a 90 fastball, and if he's doing that then he gets his K's with a short-arm curve ball that he can throw back door, at the feet or to drop out of the zone.  It's an average curve, but if it's set up it can get him a strike three.

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Fact is, the A's lineup is tailor-made for Bazooka Joe.  Maybe we've got a coin-flip's chance of handing the baton off to Maurer for the anchor leg on this sweep.

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=== vs Tommy Milone ===

The M's have pedestrian stats against Milone, a .250 team AVG with mediocre BB and SLG stats.  Here's the chart.

The only guy who has raked him has been Jesus Montero, who torched all LHP's last year.  But this would be Montero's 3rd straight game catching.  It'll be interesting to see if Montero gets this start. Presumably Shoppach catches the day game on Thursday?  Is it a day game?

Milone is a "befuddling" smoke-and-mirrors lefty with three minus* pitches and a realllllly good changeup.  Jamie Moyer en embryo.  The newly-disciplined M's performed well against this approach on Tuesday.  Jason Bay would presumably be a good matchup here.

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=== This N That ===

The Mariners haven't been 3-0 since the 1995 season, the year before ARod.  Have a quick look at their Two Martinez Launch.  The Big Unit went 18-2 that year, and IIRC the M's were 27-3 in his starts.

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Michael Saunders?  The Russian chessplayers have a phrase, "Dizzy With Success."  You lose your sense of danger when everything goes as well as it did for him during the WBC.  As we recall, when he returned from the WBC, his EYE ratio was 1:15 at one point down in Arizona.

He'll adjust, we're sure -- he's keeping everything tight and up the middle.

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You've heard that spring training SLG+200 results can presage a career season.  You know who did this?  Michael Morse.  ... Morse has continued his spring rampage with two more shots in the first two games.  As of right now we haven't ruled out a Jose Bautista season for him.  Hey, if you can't dream in Week One, when can you?

Smoak and ... Raul Ibanez :- ) also are on the list of ST SLG+200 sleepers for 2013.
 
Enjoy,
 
Dr D
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Comments

2
RockiesJeff's picture

I hope I am proved wrong but I don't have the confidence in Joe. He did stop Texas in the playoffs last season but he makes me anxious for another young stud to step forward. I have been wrong too many times before. I hope this is another for the list!
Now Morse on the other hand? Talk about carrying a big stick. I hope will be his signature season.

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