.

Franklin Gutierrez is batting 7th for Seth Smith, and Dae-Ho Lee is batting 8th for Adam Lind.  It seems like every hitter offers us fans something interesting to watch:  Whether Guti will maintain his 1 (off-field) HR per 12 AB's sthick, whether Dae-Ho Lee can offer the .500+ SLG that other Cubans and Asians have been racking up lately.

....

A guest - undoubtedly a reg SSI denizen on mobile phone - sez  "I really think it comes down to the starting pitchers plus the closer role. There is no reason this offense should not be pretty good. The personnel is there to be a good offense and it doesn't even require break out years (which we've had to rely on over the last number of years to project a decent offense). I'm not even counting on strong years at the dish from Marte and Ianetta. If either one of these guys has a nice offensive year to add to the known entities of Cano-Cruz-Seager-Aoki-RF platoon-Lind then we're going to be good. To me it's about these starters not aging/being hurt (Felix/Kuma) and even basic progression from Walker-Lind. I also don't like Cishek. His stuff is the worst of any reliever we have right now."

All of which I agree with.  It's a funny thing, isn't it?  The same logic held up, on paper, before the season.  But now we've watched it for three games and a picture is worth 1,000 words.  Sometimes we'd like to think that we've educated ourselves past our instincts, but it isn't so.  Human intuition is more powerful than is algebra.  The human brain > NASA mainframe.  Computers are not conscious.  Nor have they "seen" what we have seen; there is no way to show a computer a human "mood," such as the mood to compete or the mood to mail in the ballgame.

....

There's another article on Felix' velocity decline today.  Dr. D is worried that Felix' elbow ligament might snap, but not at all worried that his performance will decline.

Krueger was talking about this too.  Felix throws with his large muscles, throws with command, has four different pitches.  He has a much more resilient profile than, say, Erikkk Bedard.  You want to bet that Felix will drop off sharply in 2016 or 2017, power to you, but I'll be extremely glad to take that bet.

Jeff Sullivan published an article that said, "As soon as he sits 92 again we'll all relax."  True, but I'm relaxed either way.

....

Taijuan had a 23:4 CTL ratio in 22 innings this spring, though a lot of hits went through.  His changeup looked ready to go, and DiPoto said the spin rate on his curve was improving all through March.  Is 2016 his year?  DiPoto thinks so:

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"The spin on his curveball has improved every week of the spring and sometimes it's easy to forget with guys like Taijuan and Ketel Marte, and even Louis Sardinas, how young these guys are," he said. "... Especially in Taijuan's case, he's been famous long enough that you forget that we're going to line kids up to pitch in A-ball that are older than Taijuan Walker this year. And he's already doing it in the big leagues, and he has the potential to bust out and be a star in this league. I'm excited to see if his time is now because it sure seems like it is."

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He becomes an ace as soon as batters have to respect his offspeed game.  How good does his split/change have to be?  Good enough that it gets into their heads.  That's all.  Then they'll be "in between" and with that fastball, it's all over.

That's what we're watching for tonight.  A little bit of a baffled look as an Orc sees a changeup show up in a slash situation.  And a few tentative arm swings after that.

The game notes had an interesting squib.  Here are the U-23 pitchers since 1969 who have thrown 1-hit shutouts with 10+ K:

• Felix
• Taijuan (the Minnesota game last July 31)
• Eckersley
• Gooden
• Kerry Wood
• Shelby Miller
• Meche

.....

Eric Surkamp has 57 innings in the bigs, during which he has been beaten strongly about the head and shoulders.  He was 19:7:1 in 20 innings this March.  His pitch type profile:  an 89 MPH fastball and lots of 78 MPH curve balls.  Defends himself once in a while with a cut (gloveside) fastball).  Comparable arsenal:  Luke French.  

Hard to say what Billy Beane sees here, since Surkamp lacks the command, control, and K:BB ratio that most of Beane's "finds" have.  According to this article, Surkamp had a big game to finish a lackluster Spring Training for himself, and Beane turned to Surkamp out of (?) desperation.

Here's the video of that Hail Mary game.  Not wishing to be too harsh ... Luke French and John Halama had good games too.  Even in this "showcase" video, Surkamp's fastball looks flat and his curve ball mushy.  He (or anybody) might twirl a quality start Friday, but Dr. D is betting looo-oooong against this guy making 30 starts in 2016.

.....

So, the M's are the biggest favorites on the day, other than the Mets game.  Of course in baseball, the underdog always has a 35% chance to win.

BABVA,

Jeff