Seattle Sports Insider

Pregame - Iwakuma vs Parker

Sounds like a blockbuster comic book movie

Posted by

4/2/13

=== Iwakuma vs A's ===

Probably you don't remember much of what SSI wrote last year on Mr. WBC-san. You know how I figure that? 'cause I don't remember much of it, either.

.........

Here's an article comparing him to Shaun Marcum. Both are comfortably over 7 K's per game, comfortably in the 2's for walk rate, and average for gopher rate. Both have very, VERY unimpressive straight fastballs. That creates (2) two right hand pitchers in baseball who fit that simple description.

Erasmo Ramirez would be the third pitcher in the description, if he threw 88 MPH. Erasmo is, theoretically speaking, Marcum or Iwakuma add a hot fastball. Kris Medlen fits this description also.

.........

Hisashi Iwakuma is a solid pitcher on nights he has his "B" game. Here's a discussion. He ratchets up the percentage of sliders and shuutos and grovels six innings out of the situation. Jesus Montero seems to be very alert to this need to go more offspeed on B evenings.

.........

Iwakuma is liable to rack up 13 strikeouts when he has his A+ game.

He has his A+ game WHEN he has his balance under him, steps an extra couple of inches forward, and releases the ball farther out in front. It gives all of his pitches a nasty extra bite.

..........

Last year there was a lot of spitting and moaning over the fact that Iwakuma takes an extra 2, 3 seconds per pitch. If Iwakuma wants to bear down, it's all right with me.

Japanese fans chimed in and very politely informed us that they greatly enjoy the "Ma-ai," the mental samurai facedown between pitcher and hitter. Myself, I do not know how to appreciate this unspoken battle, not in a baseball context. It would be wonderful if somebody would help me understand it.

Looking forward to Iwakuma-san vs the Yankees ...

=== Jesus Montero behind the plate ===

Brooks F/X showed Felix as having thrown 62 changeups last night. To which we can confidently reply, "LOL!"

About 10 or 20 of Felix' fastballs got classified as changeups, but still, Baker had a funny anecdote about Montero coming out to the mound and going "Best pitch, buddy. Changeup!"

For those who didn't see the game, Montero looked transformed last night, vastly more relaxed and at ease behind the plate. Whether he is about to unleash a barrage of truly bizarre gamecalls, we'll see. But last year he did call for plenty of Iwakuma offspeed.

Early in the year, Iwakuma threw 55%+ fastballs. Later it was down to 40-45%, which is where Shaun Marcum is.

=== Lineup vs Parker ===

Earl Weaver would respond to teamwide offensive slumps by just cramming his lineup full of bat-first players ... third basemen at short, left fielders in CF, that kind of thing.

When you think about it, isn't that a cool idea? Go a 3-game weekend series with nine big bats in your lineup, maybe give up some gappers, sure. But would you rather go two months in an offensive funk, like we've been seeing?

Raul Ibanez replaces, in effect, Franklin Gutierrez tonight. Morse, Saunders, and Rauuul, I'd call that an extreme outfield. And I'm blinkin' likin' it.

Comments

Raul couldn't be any lazier on a single than Guti was last night

Turning Jaso's crisp hit into a leg-double through sheer ambivalence and jeopardizing a hard-fought game. I'd have been fine sitting Gutierrez for this game just based on that mental indifference right there.
We have plenty of players. If you don't wanna give 110% mental and physical effort out there, Mr. I Make Seven Mil a Year To Sit In The Trainer's Room then we can absolutely give you some days off. And it's not like Guti looked sharp at the plate.
Let's see what the lefties can do tonight. If we pinch-hit Franklin later, or let him field in the later innings to protect the lead, maybe he'll have his head in the game this time. I know it's a long season, but this is game #2. Stay on target!
~G

That's a great catch - what do you think happened?

I don't associate Guti with taking a play off. ... on Opening Night?! But maybe I just haven't noticed a sloppiness in his approach?
What happened G?

It was on Jaso's double

Gutierrez jogged around to the front of the ball and threw a looper back in to second. If he'd sprinted to it and/or put some muscle behind it they'd have gotten Jaso at second... or he wouldn't have tried for two.
But watching Guti approach the ball he rounded the base with bad intentions. Can't be having that out of our best fielder.
~G

Now I'm thinkin I read you wrong

And you're asking me why Guti would have slacked off on that play, and that I don't know. Underestimated Jaso? Hamstrings feeling tight? Doesn't want to uncork his arm in the chill night air? He's been injured a lot when he wasn't digestively-challenged, so maybe he wasn't feeling like going 100% in the first game - or was just used to the 80% of Spring Training.
But whatever it was, he didn't give 100% effort on that play. Hopefully he learned the lesson and it won't happen again. Guti's a smooth player who doesn't SHOW a lot of effort, but he usually gives it. We need everything he can give.
~G

Last year he wasn't good at defense

It hasn't been mentioned at all, as far as I've noticed, but for all the grousing about Raul Ibanez and Michael Morse, but "Death to Flying Things" was a -9 (-31.7/150) by UZR last season, and a -4 by DRS. I don't remember him dealing with any leg injuries last season, so I'm starting to wonder if Gutierrez is holding back to maintain his health, and if he does, is he still a starting player?
Yes, it's a small sample, but Morse has less than 2 seasons in the outfield and he still gets panned happily, and Ibanez is merely below average over his career by either DRS or UZR and not the train wreck everyone makes him out to be.

The early results tonight

Seem to indicate Iwakuma has his A+ Game going. Well, maybe his A- game.

Aaaaand...

...that's why one-year UZRs are valueless. They may actually confuse the issue, rather than helping it.

UZR takes three whole years to have any sort of predictive value

Statistics don't offer any reason to believe that Gutierrez can no longer field well, at least none that I've seen. While his age and his plantar fasciitis certainly imply he'll never post a +30 season in CF again (not that anyone does that regularly anyways), I would still peg him above average.
Morse and Ibanez are panned more based on the eye test than on the numbers (though the numbers support the eye test). They looked awful out there tonight.

People didn't hesitate after the first big UZR season :- )

They're hesitating now that the numbers are unappealing.
I couldn't agree more Thirteen with the idea that UZR should be used judiciously -- there's a long history of discussion here about that. Bill James rule: MOST stats (much less the elusive UZR stat) you want more than 1 season's volume on it, if you can get it.
That said, when we say NO predictive value in a year's worth of stats, we've said a bit too much. If you take the UZR leaders at, say, shortstop from 2012, the table is going to show SOME correlation with reality. The Brendan Ryans of the game are going to cluster above the midpoint, even within a single season. Brendan Ryan's own UZR is VERY likely to be positive this year, and that is an indication that there is SOME value even in "small samples" of baseball stats.
If Justin Smoak hits .122 in April, or .475 in April, we're going to put some weight on that.
The fact that Guti's numbers were as bad as they were, that doesn't prove anything, but it's a piece of data that counts in the discussion.
...............
After Guti posted his first +20 or +30 or whatever UZR season, SSI was saying that is wayyyy overoptimistic and I don't remember ANYbody -- on other blogs -- buying into the caution flags. The 3-year caution flag is raised now that Guti's numbers are off.
I'd always have paid Guti for +10, +15 runs per season, which is where his career numbers are settling in at. That said, I think it's an interesting question whether he remains a solidly above-average center fielder with the glove.
He's probably still a good defensive CF. I didn't ever think he was great.