I think I was first up around here to mention the Albuquerque effect on his '11 homers. But I wasn't discounting the power he has at all. He has shown clear homer ability. However, how many speed guys hit 9 doubles and 26 homers AND 6 triples. Granderson's AA year in Erie saw him have 19 doubles and 21 homers, but roughly equal homers to doubles is different than Robinson's current 3-1. Granderson was back to a normal 29-13-15 line the next year in AAA. In the majors Granderson has shown 20 homer power, then 30-35 homer power. This second stage happened at age 28...and then we saw his double trail his homers. Didn't happen at age 23 though. In his AAA season, Granderson had nearly 3 times as many doubles and triples as homers. Even now in the majors, as a matured slugger, it is running at about 1 to 1. If Robinson's homer total isn't elevation added then he's showing a freakish growth.
Granderson ISO'ed about .215 and .225 (if I've figured correctly) in AA and AAA. Robinson's leap is from about .140 to almost .270. Thin air helps.
But all in all, I wasn't saying those homer don't count for Robinson....I was just saying that some of them don't count. What he has shown, though, is more AAA power than AA pop. An evolution in his game is occuring. You got that right.
In the videos that I watched and posted last night I really loved how still his head stays. He stays on the ball and has almost no bob and weave to his eye line. There is one video of him in the batting cage at a MiLB all-star game where you get to watch how well he repeats his move. Very impressive.
Like you, I loved his wide, low and choppy running style. Ricky Henderson, (and in a different sport and era) Mercury Morris and Floyd Little came to mind.
And while Robinson doesn't have a great EYE, he does seem to have a great eye. He's walked 104 points in AAA and 80+ points in AA. That's quite terrific. Interestingly, Granderson walked exactly 104 points in AA and then 70 points in AAA. He's a regular 75 point BB guy in the majors. If Trayvon hits .275 he's a .350+ OBP guy and a .460+ slugger. Not quite Ackley. But very Carpish right out of the box.
And like you, I would love to see those first 200 PA's come in August and September, starting tomorrow. I'm ready to worry about Guti's ego later.
Q. What is the basis for comparing these two players?
A. Rat cheer is the starting point for the saber comp: Trayvon's K's, Age-Arc, and ML Prototype.
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Q. Is Curtis Granderson the realistic comp here?
A. Granderson's the UP scenario, naturally ... you wouldn't say "comp." You'd say "prototype."
Rod Carew's a comp for Ichiro. Tom Seaver's a comp for Felix Hernandez. George Brett's a prototype for Dustin Ackley.
- UP - Curtis Granderson
- MID - Preston Wilson, Mike Cameron class (100-110 OPS+ in CF)
- LO - Fringe ML or out of baseball
Look, gentlemen. Trayvon Robinson is not some fringe prospect, hoping maybe some day to be a mediocre regular, maybe a Mike Cameron Lite if everything breaks right for him. He'll be Mike Cameron Lite if nothing much breaks right for him.
Before the breakout 2011 season, BaseballHQ had him as the Dodgers' #2 prospect, the #7 outfielder in baseball, the #45 prospect in all of baseball, pitchers included.
Sickels has had him as a B+ prospect ... in Sickels' odd semantics, "Grade B" means "will probably be a regular and very possibly could be a star."
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Q. Has 2011 raised his stock?
A. It's absolutely incredible the stuff you read sometimes. ;- )
Last year, the dude hits 300/400/440 in AA baseball and is the #45 spect in baseball. This year, he moves up to AAA -- a new league, now, new pitchers -- and blasts them for 300/370/560, and people legitimately talk like he took a step back.
They figure, "the 26 homers don't count; it's Albuquerque," and rather than saying "So it's more like 19 homers so far" they seem to figure "So it's more like 0 homers."
Then, the K's went up ... boom. A kid who put it all together now is advertised as --- > only a hatful of problems.
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I saw on John Sickels' page that somebody had to remind him, "hey dude, you had Trayvon as a B+ just last week. Now in your trade-deadline summary you've got him downgraded. What up?"
He goes, "Oh, yeah, just forgot to look at what I wrote before." But the gig's up; everybody's looking at the downside today. I wonder if people around baseball have a subconscious thing against the Mariners, or Bedard, or something.
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Robinson has a WUUNNNNderful learning arc going here:
- HS - inner city, retarded development, poor coaching (thanks G-Money)
- Age 19 - 0.27 EYE
- Age 20 - 0.32 EYE
- Age 21 - 0.40 EYE
- Age 21 - 0.56 EYE after promotion to AA
- Age 22 - 0.58 EYE
- Age 23 - Eye regresses, but HR's go from just a few, to 40 prorated
For some reason, folks seem unfamiliar with this concept of trading K's for HR's. Mike Carp is the latest example. The batters, the light comes on, and they start clearing their knees and belt buckles, kiddies.
People are subconsciously reading Trayvon's 2011 as a step back. Because their park adjustment is warped. They figure, "good hitting in a good park doesn't count at all."
Trayvon's 2011 was a bustout, period. He went from #45 or B+ or whatever you want to call it, to --- > whatever is well above that.
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Of course it's possible that something is going on with Robinson that will sink him, and that is already reflected in his K's. The LO scenario is a pure fail.
Mostly in the sense that it was also possible for (say) Curtis Granderson to fail, that it's possible for Mike Carp to fail. In the big picture, this is a top-50 prospect here.
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Comments
Perhaps the two top "steals" in the 2010 draft:
Paxton 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
Walker 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 K
Add a guy they unearthed in Venezuela:
Campos 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
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Furbush looks to me like a guy who could be Vargas-plus in the rotation. But Vargas-plus may not be good enough to stick in a Felix-Pineda-Paxton-Hultzen rotation once these teenagers arrive.
Hyperbole? Yes, because not everyone will pan out or stay healthy, but Paxton, Walker, Hultzen and Campos each have got awfully high percentage shots compared to your average Anthony Vasquez. (And that's not even mentioning the resurgent Tony Butler, who'll probably end up in the pen.)
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And: Shawn Kelley has pitched 2 rehab outings:
1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K
1.0 IP, 0 H , 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K
6 baters faced, 6 outs, 4 K
And the PTBNL looks like no slouch, too.
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So, from a global perspective, the pitching staff doesn't really look any weaker, and in exhange:
Robinson who is a real shot at an impact bat in CF.
Chiang who has 58 XBH -- 5 more than Vinnie Catricala.
Wells, who Doc likes more than most, and that's a good thing -- usually :-)
Martinez, who has tools and lots of upside (for example, .500 SLG in 108 ABs vs. LHP)
So that's 4 new intriguing bats, while in the meantime, Carp is getting it done (.959 OPS since returning; he'll just have to do it from DH/backup 1b/backup LF), Vinnie Cat just keeps on mashing AA, Saunders finally looks reinvented (as Doc sez, a day late and a dollar short, but better than nothing) and Seager has been tearing up AAA after his better-than-it-looked cuppacoffee.
Interesting times.
When I first noticed Carp several years ago what impressed me was his AA leap and his eye.
In his 2nd Boston AA go-around he jumped from .725 to .874 OPS, and he walked 104 points.
Chaing in his 2nd Boston AA go-around jumped from .732 to 1.050 OPS! He doesn't walk like Carp but his roughly .45 EYE is good enough.
Pop? Chiang has 107 x-base hits in 209 AA games! Yikes!
Carp had 73 in 231. Carp transitioned from a double hitter to a homer guy in AAA.
Chiang should be in Tacoma pronto
Your point is the one that Zduriencik emphasized in his mini-statement... dealing from a position of strength...
Whether you like or don't like Wells, Trayvon, Chiang, etc, it's clear that Z is expecting a Ricky Weeks to emerge from among them... and if Zduriencik be the savior here, he's got to be allowed to fill his org with players he believes in...
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Another 1-hitter for Taijuan, yowza...
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They talk about Furbush in the rotation, but for me the dude is a lockdown southpaw setup man...
That's the FIRST player I'd want to see for myself... figure out whether this "manages his diabetes now" shtick has any legs to it...
Chiang could be anything... a mirage or a pending monster...
Chiang and Martinez are on the Jackson (AA) roster.
Robinson is on the Tacoma roster.
Comparing Robinson's AA and AAA stats, (still drooling over the AA line - what a mix of speed and on base %) it just occurs to me that we never see anybody conquer AA but struggle in AAA. We see kids struggle in AA, but conquer AAA ("mirages" - don't be fooled). But I can't remember ever seeing a kid from AA come along who someone said, "he just couldn't handle that next level." This leads me to wonder why we even have AAA.
Seriously - we see kids struggle and flop from High Desert to Jackson, but the move to Tacoma from Jackson is always a walk in the park. Is AAA nothing more than a place to get the additional at bats necessary to jump to the majors?
I rarely look at AAA stats for illumination anymore. It's merely a simmering pot. The cooking has all been done. All that's left is to simmer on the AAA burner for another 700 ABs before eating.
Seriously: who has come along who can kill in AA, but struggles in AAA? Anybody?