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And I thought he OPS'ed .800 in his rookie season.
Not sure he qualifies as "late" to the game.
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From an old Hey Bill:
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Michael Morse of the Nats seems to have really broken out this year. Before this year, he was mainly described as a "utility man." This year he's been a big slugger. But he's also going to be 30 years old next season. My understanding, from reading your old Abstracts, is that real stars are invariably big league studs by age 25, and often have their best seasons before age 29. At his age, is it likely that he's truly established a new level of play and might be worth a big long term contract or is it more likely that his break out year has come too late to really want to invest in him?
Asked by: pablo
Answered: 9/24/2011
One shouldn't say that good players INVARIABLY are established by age 26; there are always exceptions. Morse has shown ability as a hitter for several years, but has been prevented from breaking through by injuries and opportunity. Many times, when a player is late getting started, he also is late fading away, like Raul Ibanez, Edgar Martinez or Tony Phillips. This probably happens because there is a psychological component of aging in a ballplayer; a player who is late getting a chance to play is psychologically "younger" than a 30-year-old player who has been a regular for six years.
I wouldn't get carried away with Morse' ability. He is very slow, and his strikeout to walk ratio is awful. This leaves him with a narrow base of skills. He is more a second-division regular than a first-division star. Still, I don't see any reason to think he couldn't have five or six pretty decent seasons coming up.
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This is a fascinating idea, that a hitter who "missed" his age 23-26 seasons might stay "hungry" for a longer time in his 30's.
Perhaps Rauuuulll spent several years smoldering, and those years led to the extra dose of discipline and desire that he has had. You can see the application to Edgar, also, whom the Seattle Mariners froze out for about three years after he was ready. Edgar, at age 38, was absolutely laser-focused.
If you're having trouble getting a grip on this, consider the flip side -- all of the Ruben Sierras, Cesar Cedenos, etc. who hit the Show, and lost their focus to wine, women and song.
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A second idea here is that when you are looking for age 27, age 28, age 29 breakout players, you are looking for players who have shown lots of ability, but who have run into delays that do NOT have to do with their natural ability. Ask which Mariner players fits this description and there is one (1) big fat hairy name that goes into this category. His name after the signoff.
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Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, and Michael Saunders would NOT be "late developers" if they jelled in 2014 as stars in the American League. The golden age is 26, John Benson's famous "age 26 with experience" mantra.
(Justin Smoak, if he jelled, did so in the second half of his age-26 season, posting a huge 150 "expected Power Index" which was camouflaged by, presumably, bad luck. Ackley is 26 next year. Saunders, by this measure, would be a little late on the clock, but ... he has been posting 105 OPS+'s in center field, and he was late to the game of baseball.
2014 would logically be the year for each of these players to break out, if they are going to do it. There would be nothing illogical about two or even three of these players doing so. If they did, we cotton-pickin' well would have put in the time for it, now wouldn't we?)
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A corollary to the "Age 26 with Experience" roto mantra is the "Second Half" principle. As Benson observed ... That's who the player was when we last saw him. He's what he did in the second half.
There was one (1) Mariner -- Justin Smoak's xPX notwithstanding -- who is a big fat hairy example of the Benson Second Half principle. His name also below.
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BABVA,
Dr D
*Logan Morrison the "camouflaged" injury player who could break out late, and fade away late.
*Dustin Ackley the "second half" player -- he hit .304 with a prorated 60 walks, 40 doubles/triples, and 10 homers.
Comments
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We're all about improv at SSI. .....
It's possible that Logan Morrison could be the player he was on track to be at age 22-23, but is camouflaged in Carlos Guillen style ... in this case BOTH vector forces would be applying to him in complex ways...
Alternatively, he could be a meatball :- )
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Agree 100% ... in fact, lemme split this out into an article...
Great thoughts Mo.
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Boy, wouldn't it be nice if the M's could *finally* eat a cake over which some other org labored and fretted?!
Five years in and we've gone from Endy-->Morrison in LF! with Guti as a platoon OF'er :)
Seems that Z is finally getting his way without compromise. Should be interesting :)
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I've actually been thinking of late that getting Morrison was a clever bit of pilfering by Z. I didn't originally think that. I felt he was simply redundant (not that a BIT of redundancy isn't a good thing).
And I've started to feel that he might just, if healthy, have a rollicking season coming up. Consider: Minus his neat rookies season (all during the 2n'd half of '10) he's never been above .300 BABIP for any HALF-season. In '10, in OPS+'ed 123 for his 2+ months in the bigs. His BABIP was .351.
In the 1st half of '11 he slashed .267/.343/.489 while BABIP'ing .290. In the 1'st half of '13 his BABIP was at .298..but he only slashed .248/.324/.353.
The rest of his half seasons have all seen BABIP's of less than .262.
Indications are that with a "normal" BABIP he's a very nice bat. Certainly BABIP isn't all "luck" and there is some "skill" involved....but I'm optimistic that he will have a really good half-season, at least, during '14. I would think it likely that he has a Kotchman breakout season during the next 2-3 years. I think he's better bet than Smoak.
But we still need a RH OF bat. W/O an acquisition, let's hope it is Romero.
moe
Edit: With the acquisition of Marlon Byrd to play RF, alongside Ben Revere in CF and Dom Brown in LF, the Phillies' OF is pretty crowded. That leaves a guy like Darin Ruf (potentially) the odd-man out. Ruf is a .257/.348/.489 guy in two partial seasons and 330 MLB PA's. He has 17 homers in that span. He can hit the ball out. He K's lots, however. You could get him probably. He's actually a reverse split guy, however. Our own Stefen Romero is, too. Romero doesn't have the MLB experience/success that Ruf has, but his AAA numbers are somewhat better and both had huge AA seasons. Really huge, in fact. Romero doesn't K like Ruf, either. Because the M's haven't been linked much to a RH OF bat (beyond Kemp) I can't help thinking that we have some hope for Romero. As structured, our OF would be made up of Guti, Saunders, Morrison and either Ackley or Almonte. The only safe bets in that group are than Saunders will be a bit north of 100 OPS+ and that Morrison will be a right at it. Ackley-Almonte-Guti? Three question marks. Could Franklin move to LF? Skill-wise, he could do it easily. Would we do it, is the bigger question. But unless Romero whacks, I'm convinced we're still a bat short.
Using Scott Van Slyke's '13 numbers and comparing the "ratio analysis" that Spec did (in the link) for Hart, Buhner and Sexson, one can conclude that Van Slyke compares decently with Hart '10-'12. Minus, of course, the greater sample size that Hart brings.
Van Slyke's HR-XB-1B-K-BB ratios (per plate appearance) were 4.6%--9.8--10.5--24.3--13.1 while Hart's were 4.9%--10.8--14.4--22.7--7.8. Hart brought a bit more pop and fewer walks.
By contrast, Ruf was 4.8%--8.5--12.6--31.1--11.3 Yikes!!! on the K rate.
Romero's AAA #'s (which were regarded as "slumpish") were 2.6%--9.2--16.1--21.2--6.8. Less power and way fewer walks.